Pedro Sánchez secures another term to lead a divided Spain

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s progressive leader, secured a second term as prime minister on Thursday after a polarizing deal granting amnesty to Catalan separatists gave him enough support in parliament to rule an increasingly divided nation with a fragile coalition.

With 179 votes, barely more than the 176 normally needed to govern, Mr Sánchez, who has been Prime Minister since 2018, had a chance to implement the progressive agenda, often successful economic policies and pro-European Union position of to expand his Socialist Party.

The outcome was the culmination of months of negotiations since July’s inconclusive election, with neither the conservative People’s Party, which came in first, nor the Socialist Party, which came in second, gaining enough support to govern alone.

But the rifts in Spain have been less about left versus right and more about the country’s geographic integrity and identity. Mr Sánchez’s proposed amnesty has breathed new life into a secession issue that was last raised in 2017, when separatists held an illegal referendum on independence in Catalonia’s prosperous northeastern region.

That stalemate created perhaps the worst constitutional crisis for Spain since the country became a democracy after the fall of Franco’s dictatorship in the 1970s.

It has since fueled a Spanish nationalist movement that was once considered taboo in the wake of Franco’s rule.

Even before Mr. Sánchez could be sworn in, the prospect of amnesty brought hundreds of thousands of conservatives and right-wing hardliners onto the streets in sometimes violent protests that also brought out American inciter Tucker Carlson. Spanish courts have criticized the proposed amnesty as a violation of the separation of powers. European Union officials look on nervously.

The parliamentary debate leading to Thursday’s vote in a building protected by barricades was particularly bitter, as Mr. Sánchez defended the proposed clemency law against conservative accusations of corruption and democratic illegitimacy.

“Every time the national dimension enters the arena, emotions grow and the debate becomes even more polarized,” said José Ignacio Torreblanca, a Spain expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. Spain would become “ugly, nasty and dirty” in the coming months, he said.

The issue of separatism has given a “second life” to Carles Puigdemont, former president of the Catalonia region, who was the force behind the 2017 separatist movement and is now a fugitive in self-exile in Belgium, Mr Torreblanca said. The far-right party Vox, which, after a mediocre performance in the elections, has once again raised its voice and called for continued street protests.

This seemed to be exactly the situation Spaniards hoped to avoid when they cast the majority of their votes for mainstream parties in July, signaling that they wanted the stability of a strong center.

In the vote, the Popular Party convinced many to choose their more mainstream conservatism over Vox, but they fell short of enough votes to form a government.

Mr Sánchez needed the support of a separatist party to govern – and in return offered amnesty, something he had previously called a red line he would not cross. The alternative was new elections.

“The left faces major costs if they want to hold new elections, so having a government is crucial for them. But pro-independence parties face a significant opportunity cost in the absence of this government,” said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid. “They are all very weak, but they need each other.”

Polls show around two-thirds of Spaniards oppose the amnesty, evidenced by large and largely peaceful protests across the country, although Vox politicians have attended violent rallies peppered with extremists outside the Socialist Party headquarters.

This week, the former Fox News celebrity attended one of the protests in Madrid with Vox leader Santiago Abascal and said that anyone who is willing to “put an end to democracy is a tyrant, is a dictator. And this is happening in the middle of Europe.”

Mr. Sánchez and his supporters have insisted that their coalition — as much as the far right hates it — has won enough support to govern as the constitution requires.

In a lengthy speech on Wednesday, Mr. Sánchez mocked the conservatives for their alliance with Vox. He argued that the deal with the Catalan Republican Left and with the more radical Junts per Catalunya, whose de facto leader is Mr Puigdemont, was necessary to promote unity for the country.

“And how do we guarantee that unity? You can try the path of tension and imposition, or you can try the path of dialogue, understanding and forgiveness,” Mr. Sánchez said, citing his record of forgiving jailed separatist leaders in 2021 as a way to reduce tensions with Catalonia. He said the conservative, hard-line approach had led to the failed move for secession in 2017 in the first place.

The leader of the conservative Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, called Mr. Sánchez “the problem.”

“You and your inability to keep your word, your lack of moral boundaries, your pathological ambition,” he said. ‘As long as you are there, Spain will be condemned to division. Your time as Prime Minister will be marked by Puigdemont’s return to Catalonia. History will have no amnesty for you.’

But Mr Sánchez appeared unaffected, instead mocking the conservatives for having a track record of corruption and for being motivated by sour grapes over losing the election, while laughing at Mr Feijóo, who fed up with him.

“I don’t understand why you are so eager to hold new elections if you won the previous one,” Mr Sánchez said.

Mr Sánchez also took direct aim at Vox leader Mr Abascal, saying: “The only effective barrier to the policies of the far right is our coalition government.”

The amnesty law would remove “criminal, administrative and financial” penalties against more than 300 people involved in the independence movement from January 1, 2012 to November 13, 2023.

But Mr Sánchez’s Socialists had also agreed to cancel millions of euros in debt owed to Catalonia, a demand by the separatists, and to give the country some control over commuter train services. Mr Puigdemont’s party had demanded that Catalonia, a wealthy region, keep a greater share of its tax revenues and that referendum talks be resumed, but this time subject to the requirements of the Spanish constitution.

The Conservatives have vowed to fight the law, which will take many months to get through parliament and will have to overcome serious hurdles, not least the objections of Spanish judges. The risk is that if the separatists are stymied by the courts, which they see as politically motivated, they could leave the coalition, effectively paralyzing Mr Sánchez’s legislative agenda.

“This government will probably be stuck in parliament,” said Mr. Simón, the political scientist, adding that grievances over the amnesty in regional governments controlled by conservatives would also damage cooperation and governance.

There is also the question of whether Puigdemont could pursue another illegal referendum, recreating the trauma of 2017. That would likely embolden the nationalist Vox, whose dire warnings about the destruction of Spain seem legitimized.

“If you activate this extinction or survival mode of Spanish nationalists, then the conservative party may not be the best option because you are frustrated and angry,” said Mr. Torreblanca, the analyst.

He added that Spain could enter a risky scenario in which “those who lose the elections do not accept that they lost, not so much because the elections were rigged, but because the government is doing things that they find outrageous.”