Now that Haley is out, will states still hold primaries?

Former President Donald J. Trump has driven all his top rivals out of the race. And yet the votes will continue. Why?

For the most part, the answer is simple: It’s simply too late for state parties to cancel elections already on the books.

“It would be unusual at this point for states to say, ‘Yeah, we’re not going to have primaries after all,’” said Josh Putnam, a former political strategist. which studies delegate assignment processes. “I would be shocked.”

The deadline for states parties to submit their plans for the 2024 cycle was already in October, and the Republican National Committee regulations prohibit states from making major changes after the deadline.

Strictly speaking, the Republican Party is not legally obligated to adhere to its current primary calendar. Could the RNC choose to change its own rules? Certainly. However, it is unlikely.

Changing things now would mean a major shake-up involving many stakeholders: the national party, state parties and state governments, which manage and pay for the primaries, said Daniel Schlozman, a political scientist who studies parties and electoral rules.

“This is not an authoritarian country where we just cancel and nothing happens,” said Dr. Schlozman. “That changes the system.”

It is not unusual for state parties to skip holding primaries, although this usually happens when an incumbent president is running for a second term. In 2020, when Mr. Trump faced only minor primary opposition, Republican officials swooped in six states chose to cancel their primaries and caucuses. Ten state Democratic parties did the same in 2012, when President Obama ran for his second term.

This year, Democratic parties in two states, Delaware And Floridacanceled their primaries because President Biden was the only candidate on the ballots.

In January, David Bossie, a Trump ally and member of the RNC committee, suggested but withdrew a resolution to declare Mr. Trump the party’s presumptive nominee. It would have been merely symbolic even if it had been voted on and passed. And the former president did not support the resolution, writing that he preferred to win the “old-fashioned” way.

Since the 1850s, Republicans have chosen their presidential candidate in that old-fashioned way at a national convention, even though there is one candidate who will almost certainly emerge victorious. State parties can decide, within voting laws established by state governments, how to choose the delegates they send to the convention, but RNC rules say the national party must approve their plans well before nominating contests start .

With Trump’s main challengers having suspended their campaigns, there is little reason to believe he will face any opposition on his way to securing the remaining delegates he needs to secure the nomination. That leaves him and his allies no reason to question existing norms and party guidelines, Dr. noted. Schlozman op.

“I think it’s very unlikely you’ll see any of that.” said dr. Schlozman. “What incentive do they have, other than saving a few dollars, to do this?”