When the former president cast his vote in the Florida primary on Tuesday, the former first lady was at his side.

This was notable for a number of reasons.

Former President Donald J. Trump has said for months that his wife, Melania, would join him on the campaign trail. And for months, Mrs. Trump remained absent from campaign events and victory celebrations — after Mr. Trump cruised to a victory on Super Tuesday, his wife did not join him on stage to greet supporters at Mar-a-Lago, their home in Palm Beach. , Fla.

Mrs. Trump is always more content to be a cipher to the curious public than to ask playful field questions, but Mrs. Trump did something out of character when she responded to someone who asked if she planned to attend more regularly in the future are.

“Stay tuned,” she said.

It was an answer, but not an answer.

(“That’s the answer she gives when she doesn’t want to commit to anything,” Stephanie Grisham, her former communications director who wrote a memoir about the Trump White House, said in a text message.)

Mrs. Trump, 53, has formally been a political spouse for nearly a decade, but she has shown little interest in campaigning despite her popularity as a surrogate for her husband.

Her public appearances in recent months have been sparse and not in service of her husband’s campaign.

One of her most notable was delivering a eulogy for her mother, Amalija Knavs, who died in January. In that rare speech, Mrs. Trump, who was so close to her mother that Mrs. Knavs and her husband, Viktor, often lived in a White House suite, described her mother as “a ray of light in the darkest days.” .”

Before that, Mrs. Trump, a naturalized U.S. citizen, attended a naturalization ceremony in December and told participants that citizenship means “actively participating in the democratic process and safeguarding our freedom.” (Mrs. Trump received an immigrant visa reserved for “individuals of extraordinary ability” in 2001, when she was a model, and the circumstances surrounding her immigration process came under scrutiny when she was first lady.)

And in November, she joined the other living first ladies at a memorial service for former first lady Rosalynn Carter.

On Tuesday, Mr Trump told people gathered outside the polling station in Palm Beach that he had voted for himself. A spokeswoman for Mrs. Trump did not immediately respond to a request for information about the former first lady’s vote.

Plagued by legal troubles and abandoned by his allies, Sen. Robert Menendez has made it clear what he won’t do: quit before his term is up in January.

He has gone to the Senate to plead innocent of what he says are trumped-up bribery charges pursued by overzealous federal prosecutors. And he has widespread, sometimes mockingly calls for his resignation.

But when it comes to whether Mr. Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, plans to seek re-election, he has been unusually reticent.

“I don’t think announcing it in a courtroom would be the best idea,” he said after he was indicted for a third time Monday in Manhattan on charges that he took part in a yearslong bribery conspiracy.

The vacuum has been filled by a swirl of rumors in New Jersey and Washington, and conflicting reports in the news media. The New York Post, for example, reported last week that Mr. Menendez would not seek re-election. Then, on Thursday, NBC News wrote that he could still run for office – as a political independent.

Both cited information from anonymous sources that Mr. Menendez did not directly deny or confirm. “If I decide to announce whatever my path is, I will,” he said told NBC. On Friday, a spokesman for the senator declined to comment on his political intentions.

Whatever he decides, Mr. Menendez has virtually no path to a fourth term. His party has left him at home. Key staff members crucial to any serious campaign have all quit, including his longtime political adviser. And as he shuttles in and out of the courtroom, an entire Democratic primary goes on without him.

“As a rule, it is never wise to conclude that a candidate has no chance of success,” said Robert Torricelli, a former Democratic senator from New Jersey. “This is the exception.”

But running for office can offer benefits that have little to do with winning another term. By leaving the door open to re-election, Mr. Menendez can continue to raise campaign funds that could be used to pay the two prominent law firms hired to represent him and his wife.

He really needs the money. Mr. Menendez withdrew about $2.3 million from his campaign account for legal fees between October and Jan. 1. He also used one defense fund set up in July to pay lawyers.

Menendez’s first decision will come in a few days, when he must choose whether to run in the Democratic primary that he once would have won without a doubt. Now he would face high-profile rivals Andy Kim, a South Jersey congressman, and Tammy Murphy, wife of Gov. Philip D. Murphy, who are beating him at the polls.

Mr. Menendez could likely make a last-minute sprint to submit the thousand voter signatures needed to get on the ballot. But so far there’s no indication he’s trying.

He has declined to run for the nomination in any of the 12 New Jersey counties that have already endorsed. And Anthony Vainieri Jr., the Democratic chairman in Hudson County, Mr. Menendez’s political home, said he had not seen “any political activity on the ground from Senator Menendez,” including petition gathering.

If the senator runs for the Democratic nomination, he will appear in the primaries alongside his son, Rob Menendez, a first-term congressman vying for political survival against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla — a potentially confusing scenario for voters.

Complicating matters for the senator: The June 4 primary is expected to take place in the fourth week of what will likely be a seven-week criminal trial, according to a schedule set by a federal judge.

By contrast, a campaign as an independent candidate in the November general election could take place after the criminal charges are resolved, either through a trial or a court decision.

Mr. Menendez and his lawyers have asked a judge to dismiss charges accusing him of trading his political influence for a luxury car, hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash and bricks of gold. The judge, Sidney H. Stein of the Federal District Court, ruled Thursday that he did not have immunity from prosecution based on a constitutional argument — a decision from which Mr. Menendez has the right to appeal.

Judge Stein has yet to rule on the second half of the senator’s legal argument that could lead to dismissal.

Mr. Menendez has to June 4 to apply to run as an independent in November.

But even that seems somewhat far-fetched to New Jersey political observers and Democrats involved in national campaign strategy in Washington.

A prominent New Jersey labor leader said that six years ago, when the senator was running for re-election after an unrelated 2017 bribery trial ended with a hung jury, he received a call from the senator’s camp asking for donations. This year, he said, no one associated with Mr. Menendez has called.

LeRoy J. Jones Jr., the chairman of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee, also said he had heard no whispers that Mr. Menendez was seriously considering a run.

“Yes, I would hear it,” he said, adding that if Mr. Menendez were to run, it would most likely result in a defeat.

“I just don’t see where he could get any kind of traction,” said Mr. Jones, who called on Mr. Menendez to resign shortly after he was indicted in September.

“Look at the polls. The majority of people think he is guilty.”

Hector Oseguera, an attorney who lost the 2020 Democratic primary for the former House of Representatives seat in northern New Jersey, said the senator’s image remained surprisingly strong among Latino voters.

“This is probably the only part of the state where Bob Menendez could win an election — probably quite easily,” said Mr. Oseguera, who is not in favor.

But several independent polls have indicated he is deeply unpopular statewide. Nearly 75 percent of people surveyed have recently completed a survey Monmouth University Survey disapproved of his performance in the Senate, and a similar number of voters said they believed he was guilty.

There is little evidence that he is actively working to change voters’ minds.

Social media accounts associated with his campaign went down in mid-September, along with his own political website warns visitors: “Sorry, the page you are trying to access is not currently accepting submissions.”

A telephone number listed on the site is no longer in use.

Federal Election Commission documents from January showed that while Mr. Menendez was still paying thousands of dollars a month to fundraising consultants, he did not have a single person on his campaign payroll between his indictment and the end of 2023.

Meanwhile, his old allies in Hudson County have moved on. Most have called for his resignation and embraced Ms. Murphy’s candidacy for Senate.

“He did nothing — absolutely nothing,” said Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, who has spoken with Mr. Menendez in the past.

“People he spoke to regularly,” he added, “they don’t hear from him anymore.”

Nick Corasaniti reporting contributed.

Former President Donald J. Trump’s growing support among Latino voters threatens to upend the coalition that has given Democrats victories for more than a decade, putting the politically divided group at the center of a tug-of-war that could determine elections across the country.

Polls show Trump’s standing among Latino voters has grown since his 2020 defeat, with some surveys showing he won more than 40 percent of those voters — a level not seen by a Republican in two decades. That strength has Democrats champing at the bit to retain the vast majority of Latino voters they have relied on in recent years.

The shift underscores a stark reality of the 2024 election: Neither party can win with white voters alone.

As the battle for both the White House and Congress shifts more directly to racially diverse states, both parties will have to rely on coalitions with Black, Asian and Latinx voters.

Latino voters will make up an estimated 15 percent of eligible voters this year, and 33 percent of eligible voters in California, where several swing districts are poised to determine control of the House of Representatives. Races in Arizona and Nevada, where Latinos make up about one in four eligible voters, are positioned to tip the balance of power in the Senate.

The battle for the presidency has expanded from battlegrounds in the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt in recent elections. President Biden relied on victories in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada to win in 2020. This year, both parties are investing heavily in those states to sway the large numbers of Hispanic voters they believe are there for the taking.

“The Latino electorate used to be seen as a huge burden on Republicans. Now it is proving to be an asset,” said Daniel Garza, executive director of the Libre Initiative, a conservative group targeting Latino voters and funded by American for Prosperity, the group founded by Charles and David Koch. “Republicans can’t win without them — it would be political malpractice not to have them in a winning coalition.”

The shifts within a large and diverse demographic group defy simple explanation. Differences between regions, generations and economies all play a role.

Mr. Trump has found new support among Latinos who work in law enforcement along the Mexican border, Cuban Americans in Florida who are averse to policies they say approach socialism, evangelical Christians drawn to Christian nationalism and U.S.-born Latinos of the second and third generations who are more likely to identify with and vote like their white peers.

One of the clearest trends is the education gap. Trump monitors the divide among voters in general things are getting better among Hispanic voters without a college degree than among college-educated Hispanic voters.

“The nation’s Latino population is now so large it’s multi-story,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, director of race and ethnicity research at the Pew Research Center. “This has changed before, and it may change again, but even if the stocks don’t change, the numbers will continue to rise – and that will have important implications.”

The changes present a tantalizing prospect for Republicans: The parties may see a political realignment, with Republicans pulling some working-class black and Latino voters from the Democratic coalition and Democrats capturing a share of higher-income, college-educated white voters. win. voters who would once have ended up in the Republican Party. It’s a voter swap that could be a lifeline for Republicans, whose dependence on white voters in a diversifying country has had strategists predicting doom for years.

“A moment like this would have been unfathomable in 2016,” said Patrick Ruffini, a pollster who argues the Republican Party is assembling a more multiracial coalition. “The belief was that Republicans needed to moderate immigration reform. Now you have a character who not only ignores that, but turns it completely on its head. It debunks decades of conventional wisdom.”

However, it is unclear how extensive and lasting the changes in the Trump era will be. Polling on partisanship shows that Latino voters have been fairly steadfast in their partisan identification, although they have recently begun drift towards the Republican Party. Republicans have gained some support from black voters in the polls, but there is no clear evidence of a mass movement.

Some Democratic strategists believe current polls overestimate Hispanic support for Trump, in part because they may exclude too many voters who primarily speak Spanish. They also believe that many Hispanic voters will return to President Biden in the coming months, arguing that Trump’s rhetoric will turn them away.

“The Democrats are balancing two realities: the polls failed and we won, but there are still warning signs,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic strategist who runs focus groups with Hispanic voters. She said she often heard those voters focused on their economic security.

“Status threats are powerful because Latino voters know they are in a race to avoid last place,” she said. “They don’t want to be a loser, and they know it’s an uphill climb.”

It is difficult to overstate the dramatic growth in the number of Latino voters over the past two decades. An estimated 36 million Latinos will be eligible to vote this year, an increase of almost four million as of 2020 alone and more than double compared to 2008.

Many Latino voters have long had weak loyalty to either party. In 2004, for example, roughly four in ten Latino voters chose George W. Bush, the most support ever from Latinos for a Republican presidential candidate.

Just four years laterAccording to exit polls, the Democratic advantage nearly doubled, with nearly 70 percent of Latino voters choosing Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. In 2020, support for Republicans increased again thanks to Mr. Trump.

Since 2020, Republicans have expanded their reach among Hispanic voters. They have attracted more Hispanic candidates, especially in parts of Florida, Texas and New Mexico, and have reached Hispanic voters more often. Large evangelical groups that once focused largely on white congregations have expanded their political reach to include Latino churches.

“This election will be decided at the margins, and we are going to aggressively reach these voters,” said Danielle Alvarez, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. “If we can keep this momentum going, if we can turn away Biden’s support, we will win.”

Many Democrats are baffled by the Republicans’ incursions as Trump continued to unleash inflammatory rhetoric about immigrants, including those from Latin America, “poisoning the blood of our country” and promising draconian policies such as mass deportations. He has advanced the Great Replacement conspiracy theory by claiming that Democrats welcome undocumented immigrants to the United States because they will make them vote for the party illegally.

Interviews and surveys show that many Latino voters do not see themselves as the target of Trump’s comments. Instead, they often say they welcome his talk of cracking down on the border and see him helping entrepreneurs and the economy.

“The Democrats let us down time and time again,” said George Rodriguez, 57, who lives in Las Vegas and calls himself a Chicano Republican. ‘They are losing us because we don’t want handouts. We don’t want – we don’t need your hug. We want a direction. We want jobs.”

Some polls show that Latino votersViews of the Democratic Party remain positive. A Pew Research Center survey last year found that nearly 80 percent of Latino voters thought the Democratic Party “really cares about Latinos” and about 70 percent said the party was “working hard to earn the votes of Latinos.” , compared to 45 percent for Republicans.

To some extent, the shift among Latino voters may have as much to do with dissatisfaction with Mr. Biden as it does with enthusiasm for Mr. Trump. Young Latino voters – like other young voters – are moving away from Biden out of frustration over the economy and the war in Gaza. And Latinas have been moving toward Trump at the same pace as Latino men, worrying some Democratic strategists who are banking on abortion rights to be a major issue this fall.

“I want to hear something positive more often,” said Elisa Iñiguez, 69, who emigrated from Mexico to Southern California more than 40 years ago. She has almost always voted for Democrats and plans to vote for Biden, she said, but has grown frustrated in recent years. “We have to take more into account the people who are already here. We all want the same rights.”

The Biden campaign says it is mainly targeting two groups: people who voted for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, in 2016 and switched to Trump in 2020, and a much larger group of new or inconsistent voters. Latinos make up a significant portion of both categories.

“The president’s campaign does not ask for, but deserves, the support of our community,” Michelle Villegas, the Biden campaign’s Latino voting director, said in a statement.

Biden campaign officials said they had spent about $25 million on radio ads, and had plans to spend another $30 million across social media and on platforms that attract large Latino audiences, such as podcasts and YouTube and sports shows.

The political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, known as BOLD PAC, has also encouraged candidates to use Spanglish in ads as a way to reach native English speakers, who make up a large majority of Latino voters.

“Our party has not done a good job of truly speaking to the Latino community because too often we have been taken as monolithic and taken for granted,” said Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost, Democrat of Florida and an Afro-Cuban American. who is leading some of these efforts.

Mr Frost said he was encouraged by the party’s efforts so far this year. “The president doesn’t have to do it alone.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will announce the vice presidential pick for his independent presidential bid on March 26 at an event in Oakland, California, his campaign said Wednesday, a move that comes amid swirling speculation about his potential running mate.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday that NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura were at the top of his short list, and that both had welcomed Mr. Kennedy’s overtures.

Mr. Kennedy confirmed the names to The Times on Tuesday, saying in an interview: “I would say we have already made a decision,” but he declined to provide details. On Wednesday, he said in a text message that he had asked a candidate who had accepted the offer, but again did not respond.

Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura were among at least a half-dozen potential candidates with whom Mr. Kennedy and his camp discussed how to get a ticket.

Mr. Ventura’s son, Tyrel Ventura, told The Times late Tuesday that the former governor had not been formally asked. On Wednesday, the younger Mr. Ventura said there had been no outreach “as far as I know.”

A representative for Mr. Rodgers did not respond to several requests for comment. On Wednesday afternoon, Pat McAfee — a former professional football player who now hosts an ESPN podcast on which Mr. Rodgers is a frequent guest — said that Mr. Rodgers had heard the report from his vice presidential consideration while in Costa Rica, at an ayahuasca retreat .

The use of ayahuasca, a natural hallucinogen, has become part of a growing trend of psychedelic retreats. Mr Rodgers has praised the drug in the past for its ‘healing’ properties.

Mr. Rodgers appeared in one Instagram video posted Tuesday by Jordan Poyer, a veteran NFL safety who signed with the Miami Dolphins on Tuesday. The post, which includes images from an eco-resort in Costa Rica, was promoted by Behold Retreats, which bills itself as a service for guided experiences in psychedelic plant-based medicine.