Menendez leaves re-election plans unclear, but dormant campaign offers tips

Plagued by legal troubles and abandoned by his allies, Sen. Robert Menendez has made it clear what he won’t do: quit before his term is up in January.

He has gone to the Senate to plead innocent of what he says are trumped-up bribery charges pursued by overzealous federal prosecutors. And he has widespread, sometimes mockingly calls for his resignation.

But when it comes to whether Mr. Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, plans to seek re-election, he has been unusually reticent.

“I don’t think announcing it in a courtroom would be the best idea,” he said after he was indicted for a third time Monday in Manhattan on charges that he took part in a yearslong bribery conspiracy.

The vacuum has been filled by a swirl of rumors in New Jersey and Washington, and conflicting reports in the news media. The New York Post, for example, reported last week that Mr. Menendez would not seek re-election. Then, on Thursday, NBC News wrote that he could still run for office – as a political independent.

Both cited information from anonymous sources that Mr. Menendez did not directly deny or confirm. “If I decide to announce whatever my path is, I will,” he said told NBC. On Friday, a spokesman for the senator declined to comment on his political intentions.

Whatever he decides, Mr. Menendez has virtually no path to a fourth term. His party has left him at home. Key staff members crucial to any serious campaign have all quit, including his longtime political adviser. And as he shuttles in and out of the courtroom, an entire Democratic primary goes on without him.

“As a rule, it is never wise to conclude that a candidate has no chance of success,” said Robert Torricelli, a former Democratic senator from New Jersey. “This is the exception.”

But running for office can offer benefits that have little to do with winning another term. By leaving the door open to re-election, Mr. Menendez can continue to raise campaign funds that could be used to pay the two prominent law firms hired to represent him and his wife.

He really needs the money. Mr. Menendez withdrew about $2.3 million from his campaign account for legal fees between October and Jan. 1. He also used one defense fund set up in July to pay lawyers.

Menendez’s first decision will come in a few days, when he must choose whether to run in the Democratic primary that he once would have won without a doubt. Now he would face high-profile rivals Andy Kim, a South Jersey congressman, and Tammy Murphy, wife of Gov. Philip D. Murphy, who are beating him at the polls.

Mr. Menendez could likely make a last-minute sprint to submit the thousand voter signatures needed to get on the ballot. But so far there’s no indication he’s trying.

He has declined to run for the nomination in any of the 12 New Jersey counties that have already endorsed. And Anthony Vainieri Jr., the Democratic chairman in Hudson County, Mr. Menendez’s political home, said he had not seen “any political activity on the ground from Senator Menendez,” including petition gathering.

If the senator runs for the Democratic nomination, he will appear in the primaries alongside his son, Rob Menendez, a first-term congressman vying for political survival against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla — a potentially confusing scenario for voters.

Complicating matters for the senator: The June 4 primary is expected to take place in the fourth week of what will likely be a seven-week criminal trial, according to a schedule set by a federal judge.

By contrast, a campaign as an independent candidate in the November general election could take place after the criminal charges are resolved, either through a trial or a court decision.

Mr. Menendez and his lawyers have asked a judge to dismiss charges accusing him of trading his political influence for a luxury car, hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash and bricks of gold. The judge, Sidney H. Stein of the Federal District Court, ruled Thursday that he did not have immunity from prosecution based on a constitutional argument — a decision from which Mr. Menendez has the right to appeal.

Judge Stein has yet to rule on the second half of the senator’s legal argument that could lead to dismissal.

Mr. Menendez has to June 4 to apply to run as an independent in November.

But even that seems somewhat far-fetched to New Jersey political observers and Democrats involved in national campaign strategy in Washington.

A prominent New Jersey labor leader said that six years ago, when the senator was running for re-election after an unrelated 2017 bribery trial ended with a hung jury, he received a call from the senator’s camp asking for donations. This year, he said, no one associated with Mr. Menendez has called.

LeRoy J. Jones Jr., the chairman of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee, also said he had heard no whispers that Mr. Menendez was seriously considering a run.

“Yes, I would hear it,” he said, adding that if Mr. Menendez were to run, it would most likely result in a defeat.

“I just don’t see where he could get any kind of traction,” said Mr. Jones, who called on Mr. Menendez to resign shortly after he was indicted in September.

“Look at the polls. The majority of people think he is guilty.”

Hector Oseguera, an attorney who lost the 2020 Democratic primary for the former House of Representatives seat in northern New Jersey, said the senator’s image remained surprisingly strong among Latino voters.

“This is probably the only part of the state where Bob Menendez could win an election — probably quite easily,” said Mr. Oseguera, who is not in favor.

But several independent polls have indicated he is deeply unpopular statewide. Nearly 75 percent of people surveyed have recently completed a survey Monmouth University Survey disapproved of his performance in the Senate, and a similar number of voters said they believed he was guilty.

There is little evidence that he is actively working to change voters’ minds.

Social media accounts associated with his campaign went down in mid-September, along with his own political website warns visitors: “Sorry, the page you are trying to access is not currently accepting submissions.”

A telephone number listed on the site is no longer in use.

Federal Election Commission documents from January showed that while Mr. Menendez was still paying thousands of dollars a month to fundraising consultants, he did not have a single person on his campaign payroll between his indictment and the end of 2023.

Meanwhile, his old allies in Hudson County have moved on. Most have called for his resignation and embraced Ms. Murphy’s candidacy for Senate.

“He did nothing — absolutely nothing,” said Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, who has spoken with Mr. Menendez in the past.

“People he spoke to regularly,” he added, “they don’t hear from him anymore.”

Nick Corasaniti reporting contributed.