The wild card in Taiwan’s elections: frustrated young voters

In the months leading up to Taiwan’s crucial presidential election, candidates have focused on who can best handle the island democracy’s volatile relationship with China and its concerns about the risks of war. But at a recent forum in Taipei, younger voters peppered two of the candidates with questions about mundane issues like rent, telecom fraud and the voting age.

It was a telling distillation of the race, the outcome of which will have far-reaching consequences for Taiwan. The island is a potential flashpoint between the United States and China, which claims and has Taiwan as its territory indicated that it could escalate military threats if the Democratic Progressive Party wins.

But many Taiwanese voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are tired of geopolitics and long for a campaign more focused on their needs at home. In interviews, they talked about rising housing costs, slow income growth and limiting career prospects. A significant number expressed disappointment with Taiwan’s two dominant parties, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the Opposition Nationalist Party.

That sentiment has contributed to the rise of a third party: the Taiwan People’s Party, a newcomer that has gained popularity in the polls in part by tapping into frustration over bread-and-butter issues, especially among young people. The two main parties have also released policy packages that promise to address these concerns.

Who young people ultimately vote for – and how many vote in the first place – could be crucial in deciding the presidential election on January 13. About 70 percent of Taiwanese between the ages of 20 and 30 voted in the 2020 presidential election, a lower percentage than among middle-aged and older voters, according to official data. People between the ages of 20 and 34 make up one-fifth of Taiwan’s population. This is evident from government estimates.

“We are tired of the division and war of words between political parties,” said Shen Chih-hsiang, a biotechnology student from Kaohsiung, a southern city that is traditionally a stronghold of the Democratic Progressive Party. He still didn’t know who to support.

“Rather than worrying about the policies of the great powers that are difficult to change,” said the 25-year-old Mr. Shen, “I’m more concerned about whether I can get a job and afford a house after graduation.”

The frustrations of Taiwanese voters have highlighted a number of issues that the next government will have to address under pressure. Taiwan is known for its advanced semiconductor industry. But many younger workers at smaller companies earn relatively low incomes, and inflation can erode small wage increases. House prices have risen in many cities.

Vice President Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, has been leading in the polls for months. But his lead over Hou Yu-ih, the candidate for the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, has narrowed. Ko Wen-je, the Taiwan People’s Party candidate, has slumped in recent polls but could still play a decisive role in attracting youth votes that once would have gone to Mr. Lai’s party.

To boost the opposition’s chances of victory, Mr Hou and Mr Ko had briefly discussed forming an alliance. But the talks collapsed in spectacular fashion at the end of last month.

“Much of this youth support for Ko Wen-je is not really driven by actual admiration for the man and his policies, but by frustration,” said Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at National Chengchi University in Taipei. He cited focus group discussions he had with Taiwanese students.

“This idea that the DPP and the KMT are both equally bad seems to have taken hold among many younger voters,” Professor Nachman said, referring to the two main parties.

In a recent My Formosa pollan online magazine, 29 percent of respondents aged 20 to 29 said they supported Mr. Ko and his running mate, down from the previous survey, while 36 percent supported Mr. Lai. Other polls suggested In a similar pattern, experts emphasized that these results could change in the final weeks of the race.

The rumblings of discontent did not mean Taiwanese were dismissive of the risks of conflict with China, said Chang Yu-meng, chairman of the Taiwan Youth Association for Democracy. The group had organized the presidential forum last month, where Mr Lai and Mr Ko answered questions from young voters.

“I think young people are still very concerned about international issues,” Mr. Chang said in an interview after the forum, citing relations with China as an example. “But beyond that, they are really concerned about a diversity of issues.”

Winning the election would be a turning point for the Democratic Progressive Party. Once a scrappy outsider, it was founded in 1986 when a wave of mass protests and democratic activism pushed the Nationalist Party to abandon authoritarian rule. Since Taiwan began direct presidential elections in 1996, no party has won more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic Progressive Party has won the most votes among the youth, but after two terms under President Tsai Ing-wen, it is no longer a new face. And many younger Taiwanese tend to see the opposition nationalists as a party too stuck in the past and too tied to China.

“For young people in Taiwan, the DPP is now the establishment,” he said Shelley Rigger, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina who has long studied Taiwanese politics and conducted interviews with younger voters. “Whatever the DPP was going to do for the youth, they should have done it by now. There is a lot of dissatisfaction among young people about the economy.”

Mr. Ko, a surgeon and former mayor of Taipei, has jumped into the space created by this discontent. He supported the Democratic Progressive Party earlier in his political rise, but founded the Taiwan People’s Party in 2019 as an alternative to the establishment. At meetings across the island, he has promised to solve housing and economic problems with a no-nonsense approach that he says he has honed in hospital emergency rooms. Mr Ko and his supporters claim he can also thaw relations with China.

“Taiwan has stood still for too long and some changes are needed,” said Hsieh Yu-ching, 20, who recently attended a youth meeting held by Mr. Ko.

Mr Lai recently announced a series of youth policies, promising to improve job opportunities and alleviate high housing costs. He also announced Bi-khim Hsiao as his running mate, who has been Taiwan’s representative in Washington for more than three years. Ms. Hsiao could stoke enthusiasm for Democratic Progressives, several experts said.

“I would also like to recognize the many domestic and social challenges facing our young people,” Ms. Hsiao said at a press conference last month. She vowed to do more to address concerns about jobs, housing and the environment.

The parties all face the hurdle of persuading voters to come to the polls. The minimum voting age in Taiwan, 20, is higher than in many other democracies, and people must vote where they are officially registered as residents. For some voters, especially young people, this means a long journey back to their hometown.

Millie Lin, who works at a technology company in Taipei and is from Tainan, on the other side of the island, said she had not yet decided whether to go home to vote on January 13.

“When I see the battle between political parties,” she said, “sometimes I feel like my vote can’t change anything.”