Pick-up or lunar lander? Tesla’s Cybertruck enters a crowded market.

Tesla planned to start delivering its long-awaited Cybertruck pickup to customers on Thursday, entering one of the auto industry’s most lucrative but competitive segments.

With its stainless steel body and sharp angles, the Cybertruck is different from pickups from Ford Motor, General Motors and Ram that dominate the market. It’s Tesla’s first all-new passenger car in more than three years, but arrives long after other automakers started selling battery-powered pickups.

Analysts are therefore wondering who will buy the Cybertruck. Will it steal customers from traditional automakers, appeal to a different audience or be a costly flop? Tesla has said that hundreds of thousands of people have made a $100 refundable deposit on Cybertrucks. But there is no guarantee that these reservations will translate into sales.

“It does raise the question: what kind of customer is Tesla looking for?” said Ben Rose, president of Battle Road Research, a firm that tracks electric car and technology companies, who expects Tesla shares to outperform the market. “It appears that something was dropped from the lunar module to collect rocks on the moon.”

First shown to the public in 2019, the vehicle has suffered from production issues due to its odd design and the choice of stainless steel instead of the lighter steel or aluminum typically used in cars and trucks. Sales have been delayed by more than two years, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has warned investors that the company may not be able to produce the truck in large numbers until 2025.

“There will be enormous challenges in achieving volume production with Cybertruck and making Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said in October. He sounded more optimistic on Wednesday, saying during an appearance at The New York Times DealBook Summit: “It will be by far the largest product launch in the world this year.”

There is also a lot at stake for traditional car manufacturers. Americans buy 2.5 million pickups a year, and those sales are a major source of profit for Ford, GM and Stellantis, which owns Ram, Jeep and Chrysler. In the United States, pickups are often sold as luxury vehicles. Affluent Europeans or Asians usually buy sedans and SUVs from Mercedes-Benz, BMW or Audi. Many affluent Americans buy Ford F-150s with 18-speaker sound systems and heated steering wheels.

Tesla is expected to announce pricing for the Cybertruck Thursday afternoon at an event in Austin, Texas, where the vehicle is built. Fully equipped all-wheel drive versions are expected to cost around $80,000 or more, with extra frills and technology. Tesla is expected to eventually offer a two-wheel drive version for around $50,000, but it may be several years before more affordable models come to market.

The first buyers will likely be affluent technology savants and collectors, Rose said. The Cybertruck is unlikely to have the same appeal to corporate fleet operators such as utilities or construction companies. The model also likely won’t be affordable or practical for landscapers, drywall installers, and other small business owners.

That is a relief for the traditional car manufacturers. About a fifth of the F-150s Ford sells go to business or government customers. Ford’s Pro division, which focuses on commercial customers, makes much more money as a percentage of its sales than the division that sells gasoline vehicles to private individuals. (The division that sells electric vehicles to consumers has lost money.)

Some companies purchase pickup trucks without beds and instead install specialized boxes or platforms suited to their needs. That will be impossible with the Cybertruck’s one-piece body.

Even when companies purchase trucks with standard beds, they often add accessories like toolboxes or ladder racks that won’t fit in the Cybertruck. (Most pickups from other manufacturers look and function much the same, making them suitable for these add-ons.)

So far, sales of electric pickups and other vehicles to commercial customers have been modest. But Ford sees potential to dominate a fast-growing market where there won’t be much competition from Tesla. Ford’s E-Transit electric vans have 50 percent of their market in the United States and Europe, Ford Pro CEO Ted Cannis said in an interview. The electric version of the F-150, known as the Lightning, has virtually no competition among commercial customers, he added.

Ford can generate additional revenue from corporate and government customers by selling them services such as software that tracks the locations of their employees and creates efficient routes. Ford will also help customers set up charging stations for pickups and vans. “We need to make the transition as easy as possible,” Mr Cannis said.

There is no indication that Tesla plans to offer similar services.

Many aspects of the Cybertruck have been a mystery. Ahead of Thursday’s event, investors and Tesla fans awaited news on whether the Cybertruck would, for example, have power tool outlets or be able to provide backup power to homes, a feature available on the F- 150 Lightning.

Electric pickups have been available since late 2021, when Rivian, a young electric vehicle company, started selling the R1T. Ford started selling the F-150 Lightning in 2022. GM started selling an electric version of its Silverado pickup in limited numbers this year.

So far, buyer reactions have been mixed. Electric pickups accounted for just 3 percent of the electric vehicle market in the first nine months of 2023. And only 2 percent of all pickups sold in the United States were electric, according to estimates from Kelley Blue Book and Battle Road.

But sales are growing faster than the overall auto market, even if the pace has slowed recently. According to Kelley Blue Book, F-150 Lightning sales grew 40 percent to more than 12,000 vehicles in the first nine months of the year. Sales of Rivian pickups grew 28 percent to more than 14,000 vehicles.