The tension behind Trump’s appeal to black voters

He has repeatedly accused three black prosecutors investigating him of “reverse racism.” He told a gathering of black Republicans that black people like him because he too has been charged by the criminal justice system. And he has suggested that black people recognize themselves in his mugshot.

There is a fundamental tension in Donald J. Trump’s efforts to sway black voters. He repeatedly traffics in stereotypes about black Americans, but he is counting on them and aggressively courting them to help him win back the White House in November.

His campaign is predicated on making modest gains among black voters — or moving some away from President Biden and toward a third-party or independent candidate like Cornel West or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — and it’s part of his calculations for 2024. Public polls show him doing better with black voters than any Republican presidential candidate in decades.

According to data from the Pew Research Center, Trump currently receives nearly four times as much support from black voters in the polls than the 6 percent who actually voted for him in 2016. He is vying for victories in states with large cities with large black populations, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Winning margins are expected to be narrow in those four states, where Trump hopes to offset his potential weaknesses with independent voters and suburban women.

Still, to Democrats’ concern, Trump’s economic and cultural tone to black voters, whom he has often referred to as “the blacks,” has resonated early.

“The polls are coming and they’re saying, ‘Wait a minute, there must have been a mistake here.’ Black people really love Trump. There must have been a mistake,” Mr. Trump said last month at a Black Conservative Federation event, a preview of his message that the country — and the wallets of black voters — would have been better off when he was president.

Even if Mr. Trump converts few black voters to his side, he could simply benefit by depressing turnout among black voters for Mr. Biden. It was a core strategy for the Trump team in the 2016 general election against Hillary Clinton.

“I think the biggest threat to Biden’s ability to rebuild his 2020 coalition, which looked like the 2012 coalition, is not Donald Trump with black voters. It is frustration and cynicism that will lead to an outflow of third-party candidates. said Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for Barack Obama.

Even as Trump overwhelmingly lost black voters in 2020, he gained ground compared to 2016, according to exit polls. He performed stronger among black men, winning 19 percent; it was double its share among black women.

Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Mr. Trump, accused Mr. Biden and his campaign of “trying to distract from the fact that Black Americans are turning their backs on their destructive policies,” and said that “President Trump, on the other hand, has policies for Black Americans,” including a criminal justice reform bill and funding for Black colleges and universities.

But Trump’s record is more complicated than it seems when he and his campaign try to sell it.

He signed a renewed funding bill for Black higher education institutions, which was passed by Congress. But while Mr. Trump signed a criminal justice reform bill and took credit for black unemployment, critics during his presidency say his pro-police rhetoric often undermined his work on criminal justice reform, and that he overestimated his role in the poor rule of law. unemployment rate. Other Trump policies undermined black Americans, including weakening a fair housing rule put in place by his predecessor, Mr. Obama.

Mr. Trump also has a long history of racist statements. In 2020, he echoed the words of a Miami police chief, saying, “When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” during Black Lives Matter protests over the killing of George Floyd. During an immigration meeting at the White House, he called African countries and Haiti “shithole countries.” He told congresswomen of color who were born in the United States to go back and own their country.

But Mr. Trump has secretly tried to limit the damage, while allies on the far right have stoked the idea that he and his political movement are racist.

In January, one of Trump’s closest allies, Charlie Kirk, a young conservative activist who founded Turning Point USA, sparked outrage when he questioned the qualifications of Black pilots, saying on his show: “I’m sorry if I’m a Black pilot , I’ll say, ‘Boy, I hope he’s qualified.'” He had previously met Martin Luther King Jr. attacked and claimed on social media that a ‘myth has been created’ that has ‘got completely out of hand’. .”

Mr. Trump told several advisers and allies that he was unhappy with Mr. Kirk’s comments, according to people with direct knowledge of the remarks. Among those he complained to was Darrell C. Scott, a Cleveland pastor who is one of Trump’s most outspoken black supporters and who Kirk had labeled racist.

“We don’t need this,” Mr. Trump told Mr. Scott of Mr. Kirk’s comments, in a conversation described by a person familiar with what was said. “I want it to stop.”

Contacted to comment for this article, Mr. Scott initially denied speaking to Mr. Trump about Mr. Kirk. He later said he could neither confirm nor deny that such a conversation took place.

Mr. Trump spoke to Mr. Kirk himself about the issue at one of his golf courses, according to a person familiar with the matter. But it was unclear whether the former president, who often avoids direct interpersonal conflict, expressed this displeasure directly.

Andrew Kolvet, a spokesman for Mr Kirk, described it as “an impromptu meeting that lasted about 30 minutes” and said it was “a 10 out of 10 warm, friendly meeting between two old friends catching up.” He said they talked about vice presidential hopefuls and “things that really matter, not some contrived, non-controversy.”

Mr. Cheung did not directly answer questions about the meeting, but said it is time for Republicans to rally behind Mr. Trump.

Mr Biden’s team hoped to try to strengthen its own standing with black voters, with events in major cities and targeted radio ads. His advisers see investing in historically black colleges and universities, forgiving $138 billion in student loans and expanding Pell grants as concrete achievements to campaign for.

Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign’s communications director, said Mr. Trump’s policies had damaged black communities.

“He thinks celebrating his mugshot, making fun of his racist record and selling fake sneakers that no one would be caught dead in is his path to victory with black voters,” Tyler said. “But he is walking straight into a dead end of racist stupidity.”

Some Democratic pollsters say private polls show Trump has lower support among black voters than public polls.

And yet the polls make it clear that Trump has an opening. Polls show that Black voters, who have been hit hard by the post-pandemic period and by inflation, overwhelmingly disapprove of the way the economy is performing, and Democratic strategists acknowledge that younger Black voters in particular do not feel that Mr. Biden has consistently acted. about policies that have improved their lives.

Meanwhile, a super PAC supporting Mr. Trump has been running targeted ads on black radio stations in three swing states. The ads portray Mr. Biden as allowing a fentanyl crisis through his border policies and suggested Mr. Trump had delivered for Black voters.

Mr. Trump signed a criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, that was disliked by many Republican voters. As a result of the negative reactions, he had privately criticized it for years. Now his aides have told him it could be a political asset, and he’s starting to mention it in his rally speeches.

“President Trump is being proactive with the Black community when it is NOT an election season,” Mr. Scott, the Cleveland pastor, said in a text message, saying Mr. Trump had implemented measures that benefit Black voters came. At the Black Conservative Federation’s gala event, before a predominantly black audience, Mr. Trump explicitly tied his charges to the fact that he was receiving black support.

“That’s why black people are on my side so much now,” said Mr. Trump, who has been indicted four times. “Because they see what happens to me, happens to them. Does that make any sense?”

He joked about having trouble seeing familiar faces in the crowd, making light of his history of inflammatory statements about race. “The lights are so bright in my eyes that I can’t see that many people,” Trump said, to laughter from the audience. ‘But I can only see the black one. I don’t see any white ones, you see?’

As the crowd cheered, he added, “I’ve come this far. That’s a long way, isn’t it?

The crowd cheered again after he years ago ridiculed Mr. Obama about the costs of a proposed new Air Force One program.

“Would you rather have the black president or the white president who got a $1.7 billion cut?” he said, “I think they want the white man.”