The Trump team, burned in 2016, appears to be closing down Iowa

When former President Donald J. Trump campaigned in Iowa in the fall, he exuded the utmost confidence. He told his supporters during speeches that his advisers had constantly warned him not to take the state for granted. Buoyed by his dominance in the state polls, Trump insisted he had no reason to worry.

“We are going to win the Iowa caucuses in a historic landslide,” Trump predicted in speeches in September and October.

But upon returning to Iowa last month, as the state’s Jan. 15 caucuses quickly approached, Trump signaled concern. While he maintained his confidence, he warned his supporters of a growing threat: complacency.

“The poll numbers are scary because we are so far ahead,” Trump said in Waterloo on December 19 during his final trip to Iowa in 2023. “The key is you have to vote.”

“Don’t sit at home and say, ‘I think we’ll take it easy, honey. It’s a beautiful day, beautiful. Let’s take it easy, watch television and see the results,” Mr. Trump later added. “No, because crazy things can happen.”

With just two weeks to go until Iowa’s first nominating contest in the country, Trump’s campaign is focused on meeting high expectations and avoiding a repeat of 2016, when Trump came in narrowly second in Iowa despite being ahead in the polls.

But while his Republican rivals focus more on knocking on doors and influencing minds, Trump and his campaign have focused their efforts on teaching supporters how to convene and recruiting a grassroots network to ensure they show up .

“We already have the votes to win,” an aide said. “All we have to do is exclude them.”

The campaign has focused much of its efforts on recruiting and training its most ardent supporters to become “caucus captains,” who can help recruit other Trump supporters to be present at caucus locations and speak on behalf of the to speak to Mr Trump.

The campaign is also engaging in the normal business of political operations: distributing lawn signs, organizing events at which Trump addresses voters and collecting phone numbers and emails to solicit donations and motivate likely supporters .

In particular, Trump’s advisers have pointed to an extensive database the campaign compiled during his past two presidential campaigns that has been used to identify potential caucus-goers who need a boost to show up on January 15.

The campaign is based on contact information from voters who attended Trump events, as well as data from campaign donors who live in Iowa. Many of those people voted for Trump in the general election but did not participate in the 2016 caucus, advisers said.

Staffers have sent a series of text messages, phone calls, emails and direct mail urging these supporters to caucus. A senior adviser to the campaign, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said access to that data could give the campaign a distinct advantage, reducing its reliance on door-knocking, a costly and labor-intensive effort that is essential for competitive campaigns.

Super PACs backing both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have launched large-scale door-knocking operations to identify potential supporters or sway undecided voters.

The Iowa caucuses create a challenge for turnout that is different from the primaries, where voters simply have to go to a polling place and cast their ballot. Participants in the caucuses must arrive on time and stay until they end. The rallies begin with speeches from attendees on behalf of their favorite candidates, in a last-ditch effort to win over their friends and neighbors. Then everyone votes.

Trump blamed his second-place finish in Iowa in 2016 — when he lost about 6,000 votes and fell one delegate short — on a weak game that did not effectively boost turnout. And former and current advisers have acknowledged that Mr. Trump had a fairly limited operation in Iowa at the time.

During that campaign, Trump visited the state far less often than his rivals. He eschewed meet-and-greet retail politics for rallies. And while he drew crowds, many in his audience had never organized a caucus, and his campaign lacked a robust operation to target, educate or motivate them.

During his current bid, Mr. Trump was still a relatively sparse presence in the state, compared to candidates like Mr. DeSantis and the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who had been storming Iowa for months.

But starting in September, Trump began appearing more frequently in the state at so-called Commit to Caucus events, where his campaign made a more concerted effort to gather information from his supporters and recruit them as volunteers.

Ryan Rhodes, an Iowa political operative who is not involved in any campaign, said he thought the Trump campaign had taken “a little longer” to begin a robust field operation. But, he added, “they have more than made up for lost ground and have a very strong closing game.”

At Trump’s events in Iowa, volunteers — some of whom are already caucus captains — are urging those in line outside to join them. As an enticement, the campaign has offered rewards: white-and-gold “Trump caucus captain” hats and a chance to meet Trump at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.

So far, according to advisers, the campaign has 1,800 people who have agreed to be caucus captains — a surplus for the more than 1,600 locations where people gather on caucus night.

Campaign staffers have held hundreds of hour-long training sessions for caucus captains to learn how caucuses work so they can explain the process to novices. Caucus captains are given a suggestion for a speech they can give on caucus night.

The campaign has also proposed a “10 for Trump” program to the captains. Captains are given a list of 25 potential Trump supporters in their area, and asked to ensure that 10 new caucusgoers from the list will show up to support Mr. Trump.

Last month, about two dozen captains and would-be volunteers streamed into the campaign’s headquarters in Urbandale, Iowa, where Alex Meyer, a senior campaign adviser focused on Iowa and Missouri, emphasized the need for each of them to recruit 10 voters.

Deborah Renae, 59, a caucus captain who attended the event, said she sometimes volunteered 12 hours a day. She estimated she had called nearly 200,000 voters. “I feel like people are at the top right now,” Ms. Renae said.

The campaign has also shifted its events to help demystify the process. A newer three-minute instructional video shown before Trump speaks features a blocky cartoon character, Marlon, explaining what to do on caucus night. The campaign also includes panels where caucus captains encourage others to get involved and make the case for how easy it is to organize caucuses.

There is a sense of urgency underlying these changes. Mr. Trump and his allies have made clear that he is hoping for a dominant finish in the Iowa caucuses to potentially push his rivals out of the race and pave the way for an early primary victory.

Trump is scheduled to return to Iowa on Friday and Saturday, where he will hold two events each day — a busy schedule for him, but a paltry schedule compared to some of his rivals. To fill the gaps, his campaign is tapping into a network of prominent Republican surrogates, allies with national name recognition who are popular among his base.

This week, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, a popular conservative, and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a far-right star, will appear in Iowa on behalf of Mr Trump.

Last month, the campaign hosted events with Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon who served as Trump’s secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

Mr. Gaetz acknowledged in an interview that his presence in the state was part of a more robust Trump campaign operation.

“I think President Trump’s first participation in the Iowa caucuses had a certain ‘hold my beer’ energy to it,” he said. “It was a fun traveling fair that inspired and brought people in. But I am confident that our campaign today is more technically proficient.”