Turkey Elections: Live Updates: Turkey Votes in Second Round as Erdogan Leads
Officially, Western governments will not discuss their preferences in Turkey’s elections to avoid being accused of interfering in another country’s domestic politics. But it’s an open secret that European leaders, not to mention the Biden administration, would be delighted if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lost.
As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish Prime Minister, said before the first round of voting two weeks ago: “We all want an easier Turkey.”
Turkey, a strategically important member of NATO, under Mr Erdogan has become an increasingly difficult partner for the European Union, which has largely abandoned the idea of Turkish membership.
Russia also has a lot of influence on the outcome of the elections. Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and, at times, a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has become even more important to the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.
Throughout his 20 years in power, Erdogan has pursued a non-aligned foreign policy that has often frustrated his alleged Western allies and provided a welcome diplomatic opening for Moscow — perhaps never more so than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
By refusing to impose Western sanctions on Moscow, Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin and strip it of the money to secure the war. At the same time, Turkey’s faltering economy has recently fed on deeply discounted Russian oil, which has aided Erdogan in his quest for a third five-year term as president.
Mr Erdogan has further angered his allies by blocking Sweden’s bid for membership of NATO and insisting that Stockholm first hand over dozens of Kurdish refugees into the country, especially from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has identified both Ankara and Washington as a terrorist considering the organization.
More generally, there is a strong sense for the European Union and Washington that under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has moved further away from European values and norms such as the rule of law and freedom of the press.