Law: There are a lot of risks in the Dodgers’ trade for Tyler Glasnow

Trade details: The Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Jonny Deluca and RHP Ryan Pepiot

On the same day they introduced Shohei Ohtani as a Dodger, the team made a major trade, agreeing to a deal that would add right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for two young players, right-hander Ryan. Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, who haven’t even reached arbitration yet and have five and six years of team control left, respectively. (The deal is contingent on Glasnow and the Dodgers working out a contract extension, but that is not part of the transaction itself, as the Dodgers are only acquiring Glasnow’s one year of employment and the $25 million he is owed through 2024. )

Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, which he hasn’t been in quite some time in his Major League career. He retired a third of the batters he faced in 2023 after returning from Tommy John surgery, and his 2.91 FIP would have ranked second in the AL had he qualified, between frontrunner Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman. Glasnow was even better in 2021 before the surgery, with a 2.77 FIP and 2.66 ERA that both would have led the league had he qualified — though he only threw 88 innings that year before the injury.

Glasnow stands 6-foot-4 and makes incredible use of his size, with one of the best extensions for any pitcher in baseball at 8-foot-10. He sits 96-97 mph with two-plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. The slider has a lot more power – Statcast has him throwing several at 93 and change, which is illegal in several states – while the curveball has an above-average vertical break that comes because of that extension. He hardly uses substitutions and hasn’t shown any platoon splits over the course of his career, but he had some left-hander issues last season, something worth keeping an eye on in case there’s anything significant post-surgery changed.

The bigger issue, of course, is durability: His 2023 total of 120 innings was actually a career high in the Majors, and the most he’s thrown in any season since 2016, when he had his professional best of 140 innings and made his major. -competition debut. The Dodgers need quality in their rotation, but they also need quantity, with so many question marks when it comes to inexperience and guys getting injured. Glasnow gives them quality, but I have no idea how many innings they can count on him.

Manuel Margot is a high-contact, very low-power hitter whose value largely came from his positive defense anywhere in the outfield, but since a knee injury in 2022, that defensive value has been missing. From 2017-21, he averaged 9-12 runs above average each full season (per Statcast), but dropped to minus-1 in 2022 and 1 this past season. He’s certainly lost a step or two, a decline that was already underway before the knee injury, so I’m not all that optimistic he’ll bounce all the way back to defense.

If the Dodgers want him to sit in right field with Jason Heyward, facing left-handed pitchers (against whom he has hit .281/.341/.420 in his career, vs. .244/.294/.370 vs. righties), they will have value. I’m not sure they can count on him to do more. He is on a one-year, $10 million contract and has a $12 million mutual option through 2025.

I mentioned in my description of the Shohei Ohtani/Decoy contract that Ryan Pepiot “was outstanding in five starts in September, throwing more strikes than ever in pro ball, albeit four against some of the lowest-scoring offenses in baseball. That’s clearly still true, and he won’t have to deal with as many low-scoring offenses while pitching in the AL East, which had four teams above the league median for runs per game, and the fifth just added Juan Freaking Soto.

Pepiot has at least a grade 70 changeup, and after a disastrous debut in 2022 where he had no lead and struggled to reach or finish the changeup, he had it back last year, and his fastball played better as a result . The changeup has a lot of late movement, especially downfield, and batters have difficulty distinguishing between the mid-nineties changeup because he releases the ball so far over his front. His slider has emerged as a viable weapon against right-handed hitters, although in 2022 the narrative was that using the slider disrupted his delivery more and compromised his command and changeup. None of that was evident in 2023 when he returned from a four-month layoff due to an oblique injury; he threw strikes in the minors and did so in the majors as well, with all three pitches proving effective in his major league days.

There’s certainly some risk here, as his history of even average command is largely limited to 2023, but the Rays like to take chances on guys with this kind of upside (e.g., a 70 or better pitch) and also have a good track record of employ. in pitch development. He fits right into their rotation in the spot vacated by Glasnow.

Jonny Deluca, no relation to NWH manager Whitey, was selected in the 25th round out of Oregon in 2019, made his debut last year at age 24 and showed more speed and reasonable pitch recognition for a rookie, albeit with less power than him had shown in the low minors. I had written before last season that he was more of a 55 runner and might move to corner, but the speed and defense he showed in his cup of coffee last summer makes the midfield look more viable.

Deluca was a strong fastball hitter in the minors, and his issues breaking things carried over to the major leagues, which isn’t surprising but is clearly his biggest risk factor. He also didn’t make much contact in the majors in a small group, but that doesn’t reflect his time in the minors, where he at least made enough to project at average power. The Rays gave Jose Siri and his atrocious .267 OBP most of the playing time at center last year because he’s an elite defenseman with plus power, and he still managed to be worth 2.7 fWAR, which only bothers me but worsening at a level I can. don’t even explain. A .267 OBP is a crime against an offense. Either way, maybe Deluca can fire him at some point, either this year or when Siri becomes arbitration eligible in 2025.

If you sense that I have reservations about everyone in this deal, you’re right, and I think this poses a lot more risk for the Dodgers because the stakes are higher for them. It’s World Series or bust for Los Angeles this year, and they just added one of the best starters in baseball who is also one of the most unreliable (at least from an innings pitched perspective). There’s a slim but real chance that Pepiot gives the Rays more than Glasnow gives the Dodgers in 2023, if Pepiot’s apparent moves last year hold up over a full season in the Majors.

There’s also a chance this works out for everyone: Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy dust on Margot, and he and Heyward combine for 5 wins in right field, while Pepiot becomes a mid-rotation starter and Deluca is developing into a regular one. I see a wide range of possible outcomes for three of the players, all except Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.

(Top photo by Glasnow: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)