As Israel’s ties with Arab countries deteriorate, a tense lifeline remains
Just a few years ago, many citizens of the United Arab Emirates were willing to speak warmly about their country’s burgeoning ties with Israel.
Israel had just established relations with the Emirates through a US-brokered agreement. Business groups emerged to direct investments across the country. Two women, Emirati and Israeli, posed for a photo holding hands on top of a skyscraper in Dubai. American, Arab and Israeli officials predicted that their agreement, the so-called Abraham Accords, would spread peace in the Middle East.
But as Israel’s months-long bombardment of Gaza fuels anger around the region, fans of the deal are increasingly hard to find in the Emirates.
An Emirati businessman who once touted economic ties said he had left an Emirati-Israeli business council and had nothing else to say. Some Emiratis, while frustrated by the accords, said they were afraid to speak publicly, citing their authoritarian government’s history of arresting critics. One figure who did speak out, Dubai’s deputy police chief, declared online that Arabs “really wanted peace” And that Israel had “proven that its intentions are evil.”
Neither the Emirates nor Israel are likely to abandon the deal, analysts say: it remains a diplomatic lifeline for Israel as ties with other Arab countries falter, and it has brought the Emirates billions in trade and positive public relations in Western countries. But the current trajectory of the war does not bode well for the accords or the security of the Middle East, said Mohammed Baharoon, head of B’huth, a research center in Dubai.
“This is a partnership,” he said, “and if one partner doesn’t pay their dues, it’s no longer a partnership.”
Anger toward Israel and its key ally, the United States, has risen sharply in the Arab world over Israel’s bombardment and invasion of Gaza, which has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians, Gaza health officials say, and caused mass displacement of two million others confronted. risk of famine and a collapsing medical system.
For the handful of Arab leaders with ties to Israel, the war has prompted them to reconsider that relationship. Jordan recalled its ambassador in November. Egyptian officials have warned that any move that sends Gazans to Egypt could potentially endanger the struggle against the Gaza Strip decades old treaty. And Israel’s ambassadors to Bahrain, Morocco and Egypt have largely remained in Israel since the war began on October 7, following the Hamas-led attack that Israeli officials say killed about 1,200 people.
The diplomatic chill leaves the Israeli embassy and consulate in the Emirates as the only fully functioning diplomatic mission in the Arab world. Several government-owned airlines have also suspended flights, making the Emirates the only country in the Middle East where people can fly directly to Israel.
Despite the pressure, Emirati officials say they have no plans to sever ties.
In a written statement to The New York Times, the Emirati government highlighted how Emirati officials had used their relationship with Israel to facilitate access of humanitarian aid for Gazans, as well as medical treatment for injured Gazans. taken to the Emirates.
“The UAE believes that diplomatic and political communication is important in difficult times such as those we are witnessing,” the government said.
In late February, Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat became the first Israeli minister to visit the Emirates since October 7, during a meeting of the World Trade Organization. In an interview, he said he was “very optimistic” after meeting with Emirati officials.
“There is some sensitivity while the war is still going on,” he said, but the two countries “have the same interests, and the Abraham Accords are extremely strategic for all of us.”
But even if the existence of the accords is not at stake, it is far from certain what the relationship will look like, many Israelis and Emiratis say.
“The romantic phase of the Abraham Accords has faded a bit,” said Noa Gastfreund, an Israeli co-founder of the Tech Zone, a group that connects tech entrepreneurs and investors from the Emirates and Israel. Now, she said, “we have entered the realistic stage where we understand that it will not be easy.”
The accords, announced in 2020, were particularly coveted by Israel as an important step toward greater integration in the Middle East, where Arab countries had long isolated Israel over its treatment of Palestinians and control of Gaza and the West Bank.
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and President Donald J. Trump hailed the deal as a milestone, Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan tempered his celebration. He emphasized that Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump had reached an agreement “to stop further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories.”
In the following years, hundreds of thousands of Israeli tourists flooded into the Emirates, and in 2022 the country reported $2.5 billion in trade with Israel. A handful of Israeli restaurants opened in Dubai; one called itself Cafe Bibi, after Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname.
But cracks soon emerged among the disappointed Emiratis as they watched Jewish settlements expand in the West Bank and Israel form the most right-wing government in its history.
Multiple plan by Mr Netanyahu visit the Emirates never materialized. Not the chords to expand to involve countries like Oman or Qatar. And while Saudi officials have held talks with U.S. officials to possibly recognize Israel, they are not interested in joining the accords — and are demanding heavy concessions.
At a conference in September, Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati official, said the Israeli relationship was “going through a difficult time.”
Tensions have only increased since the start of the war. Dhahi Khalfan, Dubai’s deputy police chief, has posted scathing accusations against Israel on social media, proverb that Israeli leaders “don’t deserve respect.”
“I hope that all Arab leaders will reconsider the issue of dealing with Israel,” he said wrote in January – an unusually candid plea in the Emirates, where most citizens say little about politics, out of both respect and fear.
Several Emiratis declined to be interviewed about the war in Gaza or about the Emirates’ ties with Israel. An Emirati in his 20s agreed to speak on the condition that he be identified only by a middle name: Salem.
He described a growing sense of cognitive dissonance as he enjoyed a comfortable life, amid gleaming skyscrapers and specialty coffee shops, as images of death and destruction poured out of Gaza. The relationship with Israel was demoralizing, he said, especially because he and many Emiratis had been raised to view Palestinians as brothers whom they had to protect.
He now believes the Abraham Accords were an attempt to curry favor with the Emirates’ Western allies, he said. It made him feel like his country’s values were up for sale, he said.
According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a generally pro-Israel research organization, Emirati views on the accords had already darkened before the war. In November 2022, 71 percent of respondents in the Emirates said the agreements had a “negative” impact on their region.
So far, Emirati officials have responded to the war by focusing on aid to Gaza, directing increasingly harsh rhetoric at Israel and calling for a ceasefire and the creation of a Palestinian state.
The strongest comments of any Emirati official to date came from Lana Nusseibeh, the country’s UN representative, in recent testimony before the International Court of Justice. She denounced “Israel’s indiscriminate attacks on the Gaza Strip,” argued that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank was illegal and demanded consequences.
She also said at a conference in Dubai last month that the Emirati government was unwilling to fund Gaza’s reconstruction without an “irreversible” path to a Palestinian state.
In an interview, Mohammed Dahlan, an influential Palestinian exile and a close adviser to the Emirati president, suggested that Arab rulers hated Mr Netanyahu.
Before the war, Netanyahu and Biden administration officials had their eyes on a bigger prize than Emirati relations: an Israeli deal with Saudi Arabia.
That prospect now appears increasingly out of reach, scientists say.
“Israel has become a moral burden for anyone who deals with it,” said Saudi academic Hesham Alghannam. wrote in a Saudi magazine last month. “The Arabs are approaching the conclusion that peace with Israel, while still conceivable, is no longer desirable.”
During Mr Barkat’s visit, an image of the Israeli minister and Saudi Arabia’s trade minister exchanging business cards at an event circulated on social media. The Saudi government quickly denied that the meeting had been intentional.
“An unknown individual approached the minister to offer greetings and later identified himself as the Minister of Economy in the Israeli occupation government,” the government said in a statement.
Asked about the Saudi response, Mr Barkat said: “we like to establish cooperation with all peace-seeking countries in the region.”
Patrick Kingsley, Adam Ragon And Omnia Al Desoukie reporting contributed.