Ukraine could deploy F-16s as early as July, but only a few
The jets are ready and the flight instructors are waiting at a new training center in Romania set up to teach Ukrainian pilots how to fly the F-16 fighter plane. But there’s a catch: The Ukrainian pilots have yet to arrive, despite statements last summer that the center would play a crucial role in getting them into the air to defend their country against increasingly deadly Russian attacks.
It is still unclear when Ukrainian pilots will start training at the center, at the Fetesti air base in southeastern Romania, which NATO allies also use for fighter jet training. But the delay is a window into the confusion and chaos that has confronted the military alliance’s rush to resupply the F-16s.
That is not to say that the Ukrainian pilots are not prepared. Twelve pilots so far – fewer than an entire squadron – are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat this summer, after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States.
But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, only six F-16s will have been delivered of the approximately 45 fighter jets promised by European allies.
Nevertheless, their long-awaited arrival on the battlefield will not come a moment too soon. Russia has deployed more aggressive air support in recent weeks to gain ground in eastern Ukraine, using its warplanes to send guided glide bombs long distances to Ukraine’s front lines.
And Ukraine is desperate for more weapons of any kind as the country is running low on artillery rounds and other munitions, while Republicans in Congress are blocking additional U.S. military aid. The F-16s would likely be armed with short- and medium-range missiles and bombs, partially compensating for the shortage of ground munitions.
“This year there will be new fighter jets in our airspace, and we must make this year effective in defending against Russian guided bombs, Russian aircraft and their missiles,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on March 1.
Still, officials agreed that much uncertainty remains about when each country will send its jets, how many will be sent, how quickly pilots can be trained and how Ukraine will get enough people to properly maintain the planes.
By normal standards, the training of Ukrainian pilots on the advanced Western aircraft has been rapid, compressing years of classroom learning, simulations and flying exercises into months.
Still, things have been slower than Ukraine or its allies had hoped, as pilots trained on Soviet-era aircraft and tactics had to familiarize themselves with the English language and Western military practices to make effective use of the F-16s. .
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in an email exchange that “training is progressing well” and noted that the Ukrainian pilots were already flying over Danish airspace. But he said their learning curve “will ultimately determine the duration of the training.”
Denmark spearheaded a European effort to supply Ukraine with F-16s last spring. Ukrainian officials who had overcome Western resistance to the delivery of a long line of advanced weapons – artillery, air defense missiles, tanks – said the fighter jet was the last major weapon their fighters needed to help them prevail.
The Biden administration reluctantly gave in to Ukraine’s demands, allowing allies to supply the F-16s. The jets are produced by Lockheed Martin and are being phased out by some European militaries in favor of newer F-35 fighters.
But US officials have warned that the F-16s alone would not be decisive in the war, and in any case the training would take a significant amount of time.
“There aren’t many Ukrainian pilots who can fly these planes,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. told ABC News last month, defending the Biden administration’s delay in approving plans to send F-16s into war. “The issue is not whether or not F-16s could have been on the battlefield in the spring of last year.”
He said the United States and its allies are now seeking to send Ukraine “all the tools and capabilities it needs to wage this fight as quickly and efficiently as possible.”
The Ukrainian pilots’ training began last August at Skrydstrup Air Base in southern Denmark, but their shortcomings in language skills and knowledge of Western flying techniques slowed things down. It wasn’t until January that Ukrainian pilots were ready to fly, Danish officials said.
Initially, officials said the Ukrainians were sent to Denmark instead of the training center in Romania because it was not open when the pilots were ready to start. The creation of the center at the Fetesti base was announced at a NATO summit last July, and in November the center’s instructors began training Romania’s own pilots for that country’s new F-16 squadron.
Last week, combat-ready Romanian and Turkish pilots sent their F-16s through Romanian airspace, about 20 kilometers from the Black Sea, in a mock interception of a military cargo plane, demonstrating their ability to protect NATO airspace. Later, they flew through the air in dramatic diving maneuvers, showing off for the journalists gathered at the Fetesti base below.
Like the Ukrainian pilots, Romanian trainees at the base were adept at flying Soviet- and Russian-made fighter jets when they began the Western courses in November. But unlike the Ukrainians, the Romanian pilots already spoke English and were familiar with NATO operational standards.
“So for us the transition wasn’t that difficult,” said one of the Romanian pilots in training, a major who would identify himself only by his call sign Red. “And we’re just excited to continue flying.”
The next class of eight Ukrainian pilots is expected to arrive in Denmark at the end of the summer, but it is not clear when any of them will start training at Fetesti.
“That’s up to the governments and the contracts that support all of that,” said Col. Bill Thomas, a retired U.S. Air Force officer who oversees a Lockheed Martin training program for the Romanian pilots at the Fetesti base. “We are still waiting for all approvals.”
Then there’s the matter of the F-16s themselves.
So far, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium have committed to sending about 45 of the jets to Ukraine, enough for three small squadrons. Denmark will send the first six in late spring, with thirteen more to arrive throughout the rest of the year and up to 2025.
The other countries have not set a delivery date for their F-16s. The Netherlands, which has pledged 24, will hold them until Ukraine is ready to receive them, said Jurriaan Esser, spokesman for the Dutch Ministry of Defense.
About fifty Ukrainian technicians are being trained in Denmark to support and repair the jets and handle their weapons packages, as the F-16 is so complex that it generally requires eight to fourteen people to maintain each aircraft. Officials said Western defense contractors would have to accompany the jets to Ukraine and stay with them until there were enough Ukrainian crews to properly maintain them — a process that could take years.
And the need to repair Ukraine’s aging and war-damaged military runways could further delay the F-16s’ entry into the war.
As much as Ukrainian leaders want to send F-16s into battle, they are just as eager to get their hands on more artillery and ammunition that are crucial to the ground war against Russia.
“I don’t think F-16s in themselves will be a game changer, because of the technical characteristics and the number of F-16 teams that are coming,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser.
“But I think that will be the case along with other munitions and long-range missiles,” said Ms. Gaber, now a professor at the George C. Marshall Center, a national security academy backed by the German and American governments.
Mr Poulsen, the Danish Defense Minister, sees the F-16s not only as support for Ukraine, but as an extension of security throughout Europe.
“I strongly believe that Ukraine’s fight for freedom is our fight for freedom,” he said, “and that is why Denmark continues to help Ukraine as much as possible.”