Ukrainians were likely behind drone attack on Kremlin, US officials say
US officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units, the latest in a series of covert actions against Russian targets that have upset the Biden administration.
US intelligence agencies do not know which unit carried out the attack and it was unclear whether President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top officials knew about the operation, although some officials believe Mr Zelensky was not.
The agencies made their preliminary assessment in part through intercepted communications in which Russian officials blamed Ukraine and other communications in which Ukrainian officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack, which saw two drones flown into the Kremlin on May 3, killing little damage.
US officials say their confidence that the Ukrainian government directly authorized the drone attack on the Kremlin is “low”, but that is because intelligence agencies do not yet have specific evidence to identify which government officials, Ukrainian units or agents were involved .
The attack appeared to be part of a series of operations that have made officials in the United States – Ukraine’s largest supplier of military equipment – uneasy. The Biden administration is concerned about the risk that Russia will blame US officials and retaliate by extending the war beyond Ukraine.
U.S. intelligence agencies are envisioning a picture emerging of a loose confederation of Ukrainian units that can conduct limited operations inside and outside Russia, either using their own personnel or partners working under their command. Some of these missions could have been carried out with little or no oversight from Mr. Zelensky, officials said.
In addition to the drone strike, US officials say they believe the Ukrainians were responsible for the murder of the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the murder of a pro-Russian blogger and a number of attacks in Russian towns near the border with Ukraine. the most recent of which took place on Monday.
US officials also view the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines – which transported natural gas from Russia to Europe – as the work of pro-Ukrainian operatives whose ties to the Ukrainian government have yet to be established.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, broadly described their assessment but declined to share details of the interceptions. Representatives from the White House, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
While the drone strike caused little damage, it shattered the sense of security and invincibility that the Kremlin has tried to portray in Moscow, despite the chaos it has caused with its war in Ukraine.
The ability of US intelligence agencies to determine responsibility for attacks on Russian targets is complicated by the way Ukraine has organized its security services, which have covert, overlapping and sometimes competing responsibilities.
For example, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Ukrainian Army each deploy their own special units.
These operate with different levels of professionalism and oversight, and they sometimes compete for resources and attention within the Ukrainian system. U.S. officials aren’t sure how closely these units coordinate their activities, either by design—as part of a system of compartmentalization to prevent Russian moles from finding out about their operations—or by mistrust between the services. or both.
Some US officials initially considered the possibility that the drone attack on the Kremlin may have been carried out by the Russian government in a “false flag” operation designed to provide a pretext for Moscow to escalate the conflict.
But after the attack, the United States intercepted messages in which Russian officials discussed the incident and the findings of Moscow’s preliminary investigation into what happened. In those internal discussions, Russian officials seemed surprised by the drone intrusion and blamed Ukraine. US officials said this information helped convince them that the attack was not carried out by the Russians.
“Seeing how the Kremlin has reacted suggests to me that this was an embarrassment and surprise to them, not an intentional false flag,” said Dara Massicot, a military analyst at RAND, referring to the drone strike. “The attacks also undermine perceptions of Moscow’s airspace surveillance capabilities and that the Kremlin is safe – these are important perceptions they are keen to preserve.”
The United States also intercepted Ukrainian conversations in which officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack. But these officials did not seem to know who in the Ukrainian system might have planned or carried it out.
US officials say some Ukrainian secret agents operate largely independently and without direct oversight from Mr Zelensky or his top deputies. The officials say they don’t believe Mr. Zelensky is signing off on all of the covert operations, and it’s unclear how much he knows in advance.
Instead, US officials said they suspect Mr. Zelensky and his top aides set the broad outline of the covert campaign, leaving decisions about who and what to attack to the security services and their agents. By doing this, Mr. Zelensky and his top associates can deny knowing anything about them.
US officials have repeatedly warned Ukraine against carrying out high-profile attacks in Russia, citing the risk of escalation. They were also generally dismissive of the effectiveness of the attacks, which they see as a distraction from the main battle: Kiev’s campaign against Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine.
US officials have also publicly denied enabling or encouraging cross-border attacks and say they do not support the use of US equipment in such operations. The Biden administration does not want Moscow to think the United States is complicit in the attacks.
Government fears that Russia will use nuclear weapons or extend the conflict outside Ukraine have abated, at least for now, and the Ukrainians have continued to conduct covert operations on Russian soil despite US reservations.
While the covert attacks so far seem to have had little effect on the course of the conflict in Ukraine, they have shown Kiev’s ability to penetrate deep into Russia. US officials say the purpose of the operations may be to bolster Ukrainian morale and break the aura of invulnerability that surrounds President Vladimir V. Putin.
Ukrainian military leaders have at times been reluctant to share information about war plans with the United States, fearing that Russian spies or others might find out, making it more difficult for Ukraine to take the enemy by surprise. The Ukrainians in particular are tight-lipped about their covert operations.
The drone attack on the Kremlin took place in the early morning hours of May 3, just days before Russia celebrated Victory Day, Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
The first drone started a small fire; the second drone exploded while two people were examining the roof for damage caused by the first, but they did not appear to be injured. Russian officials said the drones were intercepted and destroyed before they could cause any injuries.
An analysis of the video of the attack by the New York Times showed that the drones had a wingspan of about eight feet. US officials believe the two drones involved were launched at close range, in or near Moscow. Senior military officials said the drones had a limited explosive load, suggesting the detonations over the Kremlin had more of a shock effect than an actual threat.
Russian officials quickly publicized the incident, saying it was an attempt by Ukraine to assassinate Putin. Russia promised retaliation and has regularly hit Ukraine with missile strikes, though it is unclear whether the escalation was in direct response to the drone strike.
On the day of the drone strike, Mr. Zelensky publicly denied responsibility, claiming that Ukraine is fighting on its own soil and keeping its weapons for the defense of Ukraine rather than attacking Moscow. “We did not attack Putin,” he said.
A shadowy network of Russian partisans has claimed responsibility for a number of attacks, including those on the Kremlin. But US intelligence agencies have found no evidence that such groups are responsible for the operations, and some US intelligence officials are skeptical that meaningful anti-Putin resistance forces are active in Russia.
Christian Tribert, Riley Mellen And Michael Schwirtz reporting contributed.