US warns allies that Russia could launch a nuclear weapon into orbit this year
US intelligence agencies have told their closest European allies that if Russia is going to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit, it will likely do so this year – but that it might instead launch a harmless 'dummy' warhead into orbit can launch, leaving the West guessing about its capabilities.
The assessment came as U.S. intelligence officials held a series of hurried, classified briefings for their NATO and Asian allies, while details of the U.S. assessment of Russia's intentions began to leak.
U.S. intelligence agencies are sharply divided in their views on what President Vladimir V. Putin is planning, and on Tuesday Mr. Putin rejected accusations that he was planning to put a nuclear weapon into orbit. His defense minister said the intelligence warning was produced in orbit. an attempt to get Congress to approve more aid to Ukraine.
At a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, Mr. Putin said Russia had always been “categorically opposed” to placing nuclear weapons in space and had respected the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans the weaponization of space. including the deployment of nuclear weapons. weapons in orbit.
“We not only call for compliance with the existing agreements we have in this area,” he was quoted by Russian state media, “but we have also proposed many times to strengthen these joint efforts.”
On Wednesday, Putin reinforced the central role he believes Russia's nuclear arsenal plays in the country's defense: During a visit to an aviation factory, he climbed into the bomb bay of a strategic Tu-160M bomber, the most modern in the Russian fleet.
Mr. Putin has made no secret of his interest in upgrading Russia's Cold War delivery systems, such as the bomber, which can reach the United States and is designed to carry two dozen nuclear weapons. And he has promoted a fleet of new weapons — some still in development — including the unmanned Poseidon nuclear torpedo, which was designed to cross the Pacific Ocean without human control and explode on the west coast of the United States. (Russia has been less transparent about the accidents associated with testing these new weapons.)
But a space weapon would be different. Unlike the rest of the Russian or American arsenals, it would not be designed to hit cities or military sites, or anywhere else on Earth. Instead, it would be placed in a satellite capable of destroying swarms of commercial and military satellites circulating alongside it in low Earth orbit, including satellites like Starlink that are reshaping global communications capabilities. It was Ukraine's ability to connect its government, its military and its leadership of Starlink that played a crucial role in the country's survival in the first months after the Russian invasion two years ago this week.
In the analysis the United States provided to allies, U.S. officials said Putin may believe that the mere threat of a massive disruption — even if it meant blowing up Russia's own satellites — could supply his nuclear arsenal of a new kind of nuclear energy. deterrent.
If the Tu-160 bomber that Putin climbed aboard on Wednesday ever dropped its bombs on the United States or a NATO country, retaliation would likely be swift. But Putin, US analysts have told their counterparts, may believe that the old Cold War doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” would not apply in space: No one would risk a war over blowing up satellites, especially if there would be no human beings. victims.
But American officials admit they have little confidence in their own analysis of whether Mr. Putin is actually willing to put a nuclear weapon into orbit. They have concluded that Russia tested such a system in early 2022, around the time Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. But it took some time for U.S. intelligence agencies to determine that the test was a practice run for launching a nuclear weapon into orbit.
Now these agencies are divided in their assessment of what might happen next. Some believe Putin could launch a 'dummy' weapon, but leave it unclear whether it was fake or real – making a response all the more difficult.
But such is the concern in Washington that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken last weekend warned his Chinese and Indian counterparts that if a nuclear weapon were ever detonated in low Earth orbit, it would also take out their satellites. He urged them to use their influence with Putin to prevent the weapon from ever being deployed.
Mr Shoigu, the defense chief, said on Tuesday that Russia was not violating the 1967 treaty, but he did not discuss further plans. “We have no nuclear weapons in space, or elements of nuclear weapons used on satellites, or fields created to prevent satellites from working effectively,” he said, according to Russian media reports.
“We don't have any of that, and they know we don't have that, but they're still making noise,” he continued during the meeting with Mr Putin. “The reason why the West is making this noise is two things: first, to scare senators and congressmen, to supposedly not only obtain funding for Ukraine, but also to antagonize Russia and subject it to a strategic defeat. ”
“And secondly, in our opinion, they would so clumsily push us to restart a dialogue on strategic stability,” he said, a reference to talks underway shortly before the invasion of Ukraine on devising a successor to the New START Treaty. which limits the number of total weapons the US and Russia can deploy. The treaty expires in two years.
Those discussions also addressed new types of weapons and new technologies, including artificial intelligence, that could pose new nuclear threats. But the talks ended with the invasion of Ukraine and never resumed.