Why Aussies working from home ‘will be the first to lose their jobs’

Australians working from home are being warned they are most at risk of being retrenched.

Unemployment is still low at 3.7 percent, but the Reserve Bank expects it to rise to 4.25 percent by the end of 2024.

That means 77,855 workers are at risk of retrenchment, in a labor market of 14.7 million people, as interest rate rises cause an economic slowdown.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which represents 400,000 businesses, blames declining productivity levels in Australia on the workforce working from home.

Jessica Tinsley, director of workplace relations at the employers’ group, said companies would look to cut back on staff who don’t come into the office.

“We know that unproductive businesses struggle to compete and are often forced to cut back on their operations,” she told Daily Mail Australia.

‘We know that face-to-face working is not only good for the business overall, but is also crucial for employee mentoring, training, support and even social interaction.

“These are key ingredients for workplace productivity.”

Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox said staff working from home five days a week could be less valued by management.

“Employers are becoming increasingly frustrated as people resist returning to the office,” he told Melbourne 3AW broadcaster Neil Mitchell on Friday.

“People are resistant to coming at all or showing up for meetings, and employers are concerned about what that does to their culture, what it does to productivity.

“One employer put it this way: if you work from home, you have a job, if you come to the office, you have a career.”

Only one in ten jobs advertised on Seek offer the opportunity to work from home.

The October 2023 level of 10 percent was slightly below the 11 percent peak reached in April this year.

But it is well above the 6 per cent level seen at the end of 2021, when Sydney and Melbourne emerged from lockdown.

WFH is productive: Jeff Kennett

Jeff Kennett, a former Victorian premier who is now chairman of CT Management Group and The Original Juice Co, disputed the suggestion that home workers would be less productive and therefore the first to be cut.

“I think that’s a generalization – it’s an easy conclusion,” he told Daily Mail Australia.

“There’s no doubt that some people are very productive from home and a lot of things can be done through computers and phones and so on and so forth.

‘There is no easy answer; it will be a matter of individuals.”

Mr Kennett was more concerned about the Community and Public Sector Union of Victoria’s push for a 20 per cent pay increase over four years and a four-day working week for state civil servants.

“For several years now, certainly in Victoria, it has been the civil servants – I don’t mean the teachers, I certainly don’t mean the police and the nurses – but the backroom civil servants, the ones who are technically supporting everyone in prison. on the front lines, have grown dramatically in numbers,” he said.

The former Liberal leader argued that state civil servants were given more job security than private sector staff because they were harder to fire for poor performance.

“There has been no such discipline applied to those who work in the public service,” Mr Kennett said.

“So our level of public service has increased, resulting in major costs for communities.

“Our productivity as a community is declining, but more importantly, state government debt levels continue to rise.”

Victoria’s net debt of $116.7 billion for the last financial year was more than the combined net debt of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania, and was based on liabilities minus assets.

Victoria’s Accountant-General Andrew Greaves released a new report on Friday predicting gross debt will rise to $256 billion by June 2027, up from $166.7 billion in June 2023.

“Unsustainable and rising debt levels could pose a significant risk to future prosperity,” his report said.

“It also threatens economic stability if not managed in a fiscally sustainable way, because debt imposes direct costs on taxpayers now and in the future.”

The CPSU claim includes a 7 percent wage increase for 2024, which would be significantly higher than the national wage price index of 4 percent in the year to September.

It also included a call for a trial of a four-day working week over the term of the four-year enterprise agreement, with the union pushing for 100 percent pay but “80 percent working hours, 100 percent production.”

With the Victorian Public Sector Undertakings Agreement due to expire in March next year, CPSU Secretary of State Karen Batt has emailed members accusing the state’s Labor Government of pushing back on cost-of-living concerns to ignore, after years of limiting wage increases in the public sector.

“Employer negotiators rely on state government pay policy, which is unfortunately miles away from the reality that families face as a result of cost-of-living pressures,” she said.

‘The parties will not reach an agreement before Christmas and have agreed to use the services of an independent mediator to assist.’

If you want to work from home, you have a better chance in the finance and insurance sectors, with 45.2 percent of advertised jobs on Seek offering the opportunity to work from home, putting this above advice and strategy at 34.9 percent .

Senior economist Matt Cowgill said working from home is here to stay.

“Two years on from Australia’s last lockdown, working from home is still a feature of our labor market,” he said.