Zuma's enduring appeal threatens his old allies' hold on South Africa

When the African National Congress suspended former President Jacob Zuma this week, a top party official portrayed him as a traitor to South Africa's ongoing struggle for black prosperity and a symbol of corruption that the organization wants to move past.

But for Vincent Mthembu, a longtime ANC activist at local level, Zuma was the only hope for the party, which has ruled South Africa for 30 years, and for the country.

“He is the president of the people,” Mr Mthembu, a construction company owner in Johannesburg, said on Tuesday. “Whatever he did, it enriched black people.”

Many countries these days seem to have their Donald J. Trumps – brash, populist leaders who, no matter how many corruption allegations or legal troubles they face, attract fiercely loyal supporters.

The 81-year-old Zuma, former president of both the party and the republic, could very well fulfill that role in South Africa.

Mr Zuma provoked the suspension of the ANC by openly campaigning for a rival political party, with crucial national and provincial elections just months away. The ANC's unprecedented move to sideline him will test the enduring popularity and appeal of a former freedom fighter who easily won two presidential elections but resigned under pressure six years ago.

Mr Zuma, who was jailed on Robben Island along with Nelson Mandela by the former white supremacist regime, has been holding meetings with a newly formed party that, much to the frustration of ANC officials, has adopted the name of the ANC's militant wing during the Second World War. apartheid era, uMkhonto we Sizwe, or MK.

Mr Mthembu, 44, is among those who could not resist Mr Zuma's appeal. When the former president announced at a press conference last month that he would not vote for the ANC (but would remain a member), and that voters should choose MK, Mr Mthembu left the ANC to follow the former president.

“The ANC is no longer the same ANC we know,” he said. He pointed out what he saw as a double standard in the party: when Mr Zuma and his allies are accused of corruption, the party punishes them, but does not do the same with the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and his allies.

The announcement by MK Party's Mr Zuma has given hope to South Africans who have become disenchanted with the political system, said Mxolisi Ngobese, who is part of MK's ground mobilization team.

“They are following Zuma as their new Moses,” he said.

The ANC has a majority in the legislatures of the two most populous provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, but political analysts see both as a shot at this year's elections, where the party could dip below 50 percent and take place can make for a coalition of opposition factions. Take control.

Losing control of both provinces would be a significant psychological and practical blow to the hegemony of the ruling party, even if it retains control of the national parliament and the presidency. KwaZulu-Natal, Mr Zuma's home province, includes the country's busiest shipping port and third-largest city, Durban. Gauteng, the wealthiest province, includes Johannesburg, South Africa's most populous city and financial capital.

Under the South African constitution, Mr Zuma's criminal record and the two terms he has already served disqualify him from the presidency. But MK leaders say if party members want him as their candidate, they will challenge that ban in court. The election date has not yet been set.

It is difficult to say how much support he will receive at the ballot box, but opponents of the ANC hope that with him as the face of MK it will gain support from his former party.

Mr Zuma portrays himself as an Everyman, the champion of the masses who still live in poverty thirty years after apartheid. He leans heavily on issues like redistributing land to black people that was stolen from their ancestors – a redistribution that would mean taking land from its current white owners.

“Zuma is not only charismatic, but people resonate with him and his character, his personality,” Mr Ngobese said. “They can identify his achievements when he was head of government.”

He also plays the victim well.

Mr Zuma is facing criminal charges over allegations he was involved in a corrupt arms deal. An independent watchdog found he had robbed public coffers to fund major renovations to his rural homestead in KwaZulu-Natal. And his name has become synonymous with the term “state capture,” which stems from widespread accusations that he turned state institutions into piggy banks for his allies.

But these accusations sometimes only seem to mobilize his supporters even more. When he was jailed in 2021 on contempt charges for refusing to testify in a public inquiry into corruption, the protest gave way to riots in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng that left more than 300 people dead.

“It is so clear that he has been the victim of political tricks and abuse of the legal system to target him,” said Carl Niehaus, a close ally of Mr Zuma who was expelled from the ANC.

Mr. Niehaus recently joined the Economic Freedom Fighters, a left-wing party founded 11 years ago by disaffected ANC members. He objected to the ANC's characterization of Mr Zuma as a counter-revolutionary, or someone who is trying to undermine efforts to lift black people out of the inequality of the apartheid era.

“He is called a counter-revolutionary by counter-revolutionaries,” Mr. Niehaus said, adding that the ANC’s current leaders “are the ones who sold out our liberation struggle. This is the last kick of a dying horse.”

The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal believes it is well positioned to overcome any impact Zuma could have on this year's elections, said Nhlakanipho Ntombela, head of the party's mobilization and election campaign for the province. It has interviewed party members and other residents across the province about Mr Zuma, and the feedback it has heard is a relief that the ANC is finally taking action against the former president, Mr Ntombela said.

“He is a risk within the organization,” he said. “So there is a sense of relief now that you can concentrate on the election campaign without an albatross around your neck or having to explain to Zuma.”