Climate is on the ballot worldwide

More than forty countries home to about half the world's population – including the United States, India and South Africa – will elect their leaders this year.

My colleagues at The Times report that it is “one of the largest and most consequential democratic exercises in living memory,” which “will influence the way the world is governed for decades to come.”

Climate is the focus of many of the ballots. The leaders elected in this year's elections will face enormous challenges set out in the global climate commitments for the end of this decade, such as ending deforestation, tripling renewable energy capacity and decreases sharply emission of greenhouse gasses.

Here are the issues and races to keep a close eye on:

Major climate policy at stake

Climate change is one of the issues on which Republicans and Democrats are furthest apart.

President Biden signed what many called the strongest climate legislation in the country's history. Former President Trump, who is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee — especially after his victory in the Iowa caucuses — has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement, the 2015 treaty that has driven much of the world's progress in curbing of climate change has led.

Republicans have also prepared a sweeping strategy, called Project 2025, if Trump wins back the White House. As my colleague Lisa Friedman wrote last year: “The plan calls for shredding regulations to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from cars, oil and gas wells and power plants, dismantling nearly every clean energy program in the federal government and stimulating the production of fossil fuels. ”

The European Union's incumbents will also defend their climate policy, known as the Green Deal, in the European Parliament elections in June.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is expected to be re-elected by the European Parliament, has launched a series of policy measures aimed at helping the bloc achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. But opposition to this policy is growing. Farmers in several countries have tried to block measures to restore natural ecosystems, while homeowners have become increasingly concerned about the costs of the transition to green energy.

Opinion polls analyzed by Reuters one commentary piece suggests that far-right lawmakers, who oppose Green Deal policies, will grow in numbers but remain a minority.

Climate could also play a role in Britain's elections, which could take place in the second half of the year. They became a major point of disagreement between the Labor Party and the ruling Conservative Party, which are trailing in the polls, after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak rolled back some of the country's most ambitious climate policies.

The future of coal

Countries that rely heavily on coal as an energy source, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, are also going to the polls this year.

In South Africa, elections could affect how quickly the country can transition to renewable energy sources. Any change in the ruling African National Congress's grip on power could fuel the shift to renewable energy sources, my colleague Lynsey Chutel, who reports from South Africa, told me.

Currently, one of the party's most powerful leaders is an energy minister, who has fiercely defended the country's continued use of coal. Many voters are angry with the ANC for its failure to tackle an energy crisis caused in part by aging coal-fired power stations.

There appears to be less room for a shift in the elections in Indonesia and India. My colleague Suhasini Raj, who lives in India, told me that despite high pollution rates and pressure on India to abandon the coal industry, current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to be re-elected and continue his pro-coal policies. policy.

In Indonesia, none of the candidates running for president have put forward a concrete plan for the clean energy transition. MongabayThis is reported by an environmental news service. The country is by far the world country largest exporter of coal.

Oil on the ballot

For leaders in oil-producing countries around the world, balancing climate policy and drilling has been a delicate act that will be tested at the vote.

President Biden risked losing the support of many climate-conscious voters when he approved Willow, an $8 billion oil drilling project on pristine federal land in Alaska. But Biden's support for more drilling has been, at least in part, an attempt to curb inflation, angering many more voters.

Claudia Sheinbaum's presidential campaign in Mexico is also balancing climate proposals with her country's dependence on oil. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who is now mayor of Mexico City, is a protégé of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose administration has sought to increase the role of the oil sector in the country's economy.

Sheinbaum, a favorite to win in June, has pledged to take action to protect the climate. But it is unclear to what extent Obrador's oil legacy will color her policies. “We will continue to make progress on renewable energy and on protecting the environment, but without betraying the people of Mexico,” she told voters. according to Bloomberg.

The oil industry is also on the agenda in Venezuela and Russia, where it gives power to authoritarian leaders.

Vladimir Putin's re-election – and his contempt for the climate – seems a foregone conclusion. But in Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela, the window for change is slim, even if it appears to be closing quickly.

Venezuela released five political prisoners in October after the United States pledged to lift some sanctions on the oil industry if free and fair elections were held. But the main opposition candidate is still excluded run.

It may sound contradictory, but some investment in the Venezuelan oil sector could help clean up this sector. As my colleagues reported last year, government dysfunction has left the industry unable to maintain minimum safety measures, with devastating consequences for the environment.

We will report on the most important developments about these races throughout the year. When it comes to the climate crisis, even distant elections impact us all.

A Supreme Court case could dismantle federal regulations

The Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday in a case that could severely limit the federal government's regulatory power, with potentially drastic consequences for the climate.

The case concerns a group of commercial fishermen who oppose a government tax intended to help prevent overfishing. But a victory for the fishermen could achieve a long-sought goal of the conservative legal movement: undermining a longstanding legal doctrine known as Chevron deference.

That could have consequences for the environment, but also for healthcare, finance, telecommunications and other sectors, legal experts told my colleague Hiroko Tabuchi.

“It may all sound very innocent,” says Jody Freeman, founding director of Harvard Law School's Environmental and Energy Law Program. “But it is connected to a much larger agenda, which is essentially aimed at eliminating and dismantling federal regulations.”

The deference to Chevron was created by a 1984 Supreme Court ruling involving the oil and gas giant. It gives federal agencies the authority to interpret ambiguities in laws passed by Congress. Weakening or eliminating Chevron deference would limit the agencies' ability to interpret the laws they administer. A victory for fishermen would also shift power from agencies to judges, wrote my colleague Adam Liptak.

The lawyers who helped bring the case to the nation's highest court have a powerful backer: petrochemical billionaire Charles Koch. Court records show that the attorneys representing the New Jersey-based fishermen also work for Americans for Prosperity, a group funded by Koch, which has championed anti-regulatory causes.

In their brief, the groups supporting the fishermen pointed out that respect for Chevron has fallen out of favor at the Supreme Court in recent years, and several justices have criticized it.

Judge Clarence Thomas initially supported Chevron's deference and wrote the concurring opinion in 2005 that expanded its protections. But Thomas, who has close ties to Koch's political network, has since reneged on his earlier statement.

Other climate news

• Nearly a quarter of humanity will live under drought in 2022 and 2023, the United Nations estimates.

• The Biden administration announced a plan to charge oil and gas companies high fees for methane emissions.

• John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy for climate, plans to resign in the spring.

• A U.S. government map showing extreme weather threats now often covers almost the entire country.

• Chevron, the oil giant, and other companies are building an underground hydrogen battery in Utah.

• Climate change denial is on the rise, according to an analysis of 12,000 disinformation videos by British researchers. Grist reports.

• Colombia created its newest national park by befriending the traditional ranches that surround it.

• A long-term work of art in collaboration with craft and science, The Crochet Coral Reef is the environmental version of the AIDS quilt.