Displaced Gazans are putting pressure on the Egyptian border

The main reason why Israel’s heavy bombardment of Gaza over nine weeks has not pushed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into Egypt is that country’s heavily fortified border and Cairo’s ironclad determination to keep it closed.

But the pressure is increasing. Israel has ruthlessly pushed Gaza’s 2.2 million residents south as its forces seek to destroy Hamas’s military wing and infrastructure, and some 85 percent of the population has been displaced. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people now live in dire, cramped conditions in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost region, close to the border with Egypt.

The bleak conditions have heightened fears that the border with Egypt could be crossed, allowing large numbers of Palestinian refugees to enter Egypt, potentially destabilizing an Arab ally of the United States.

Israeli officials have said they have no intention of expelling Gaza residents to Egypt, and the Egyptian government has long been opposed to Gaza residents seeking refuge in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing that Israel would never allow them to return home return, and that Hamas and other militant groups, who are not friends of the government in Cairo, could set up operations there.

Satellite images released this week clearly show the number of people at the border, showing large numbers of makeshift shelters in the Tel al-Sultan area of ​​the Rafah region. Comparisons with photos of the same area taken last month show that the density of Gaza’s displaced people has soared since Israel began issuing evacuation orders this month for parts of Khan Younis, a larger city ten miles to the north.

The images agree with reports from aid agency officials, who have warned that southern Gaza is ill-equipped to provide even basic services to the hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have ended up there.

Many people have only crude, makeshift shelters to protect them from the elements when winter arrives, and every day is a struggle to get enough food and clean water. Toilets are scarce. Although Rafah is one of the few cities in Gaza to receive aid shipments in recent weeks, hunger and communicable diseases are still spreading rapidly, aid groups and U.N. officials say.

Israel launched its bombing and ground invasion after Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for 16 years, carried out a surprise attack on towns in southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians. Since then, at least 15,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli airstrikes and other military operations in Gaza, according to Gaza health officials.

Early in the war, Israel declared the entire northern half of Gaza an evacuation zone, causing people to flock south where they thought they would be safe. Israel also ordered the evacuation of parts of the south, forcing many people who had already fled the north to move again.

Before the war, Rafah was home to several hundred thousand people, and the population has exploded in recent weeks. People fleeing the air campaign in the north arrived early in the war, even as Israel also continued to bomb targets in Rafah. Tens of thousands more have arrived this month, aid groups say, clustering in the Tel al-Sultan and al-Mawasi areas, further west on the Mediterranean coast.

The Palestinians’ long history of displacement during their 75-year conflict with Israel has their leaders and their Arab neighbors concerned that an exodus of Gazans to Egypt would become permanent.

To protect itself from such a scenario, and to prevent an influx of Hamas and other militants from Gaza, Egypt has for years fortified its seven-and-a-half-mile border with Gaza.

Over the past decade, Egyptian forces have flooded and destroyed a network of smuggling tunnels under the border and strengthened the barrier that runs along it. In some places, that barrier now consists of a towering metal wall topped with fencing to prevent people from climbing over it, in addition to underground barriers to prevent the digging of new tunnels.

Between 2013 and 2015, Egypt also evicted thousands of people from their homes and destroyed more than 3,000 structures along the border to create a buffer zone. a report by Human Rights Watch. Since the start of the current war, the Egyptian army has added more fortifications, erected sand barriers and stationed tanks and other military vehicles near the border, according to local residents.

At the same time, on the Gaza side, Hamas, whose militants are busy fighting Israel, has largely given up on border security.

So far, Egyptian fortifications appear strong enough to prevent Gazans from crossing the border. But security at the crossing is light, and a large, angry crowd might be able to push through, according to people who have crossed recently. Another risk is that new holes will be punched in the barrier, either by erroneous Israeli attacks, by militants from Gaza or by residents looking for a way out with explosives.

That is not without precedent. In 2008, Hamas blew holes in the barrier and tens of thousands of Gazans rushed through, using their visit to stock up on everything from cigarettes to satellite dishes before returning to their besieged territory.

Lauren Leatherby reporting contributed.