Democrat Beshear has laid out a pragmatic path to re-election in Kentucky
It seemed like a fluke.
In 2019, Andy Beshear pulled off a surprise victory for governor of Kentucky, a surprise victory for a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump had won by about 30 percentage points in 2016. Most pundits attributed Beshear’s success to the unpopularity of his opponent, Matt Bevin, the Republican incumbent, who had offended large swaths of the electorate for four years.
But with his re-election on Tuesday, the 45-year-old Mr. Beshear saw that he had more than just luck. He defeated Daniel Cameron, the state’s charismatic attorney general and a rising Republican star, by more than five points, a margin more than ten times greater than his 2019 victory. He again won the cities of Louisville and Lexington handily, but also won small victories. rural counties in the state he had lost four years earlier.
The victory followed an aggressive and well-financed campaign that could serve as a blueprint for Democrats across the country, who for years has watched rural states like Kentucky slide further out of reach. It could also position Mr. Beshear as a candidate for national office in 2028 and beyond.
“Andy is the prototype,” said Greg Stumbo, a Democrat who was speaker of the House of Representatives when Mr. Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, was governor. “If you give voters the type of candidate they feel comfortable with in a state like Kentucky, I don’t think D or R matters that much.”
During his first term, Mr. Beshear has pushed policies favored by Democrats but also broadly popular, such as expanding Medicaid to include dental and vision care and legalizing medical marijuana, while peppering his rhetoric with talk of his Christian faith and the idea of a ‘common good’.
He returned to those touchstones in his victory speech Tuesday night, referencing the parable of the Good Samaritan and then boasting about adding lanes to a highway in eastern Kentucky and building a free bridge to Cincinnati.
“This is our chance to build that Commonwealth we have always dreamed of,” he said, “to stop the fighting, to erase the divisions, to recognize that we have more that unites us than could ever divide us.” can drive each other.”
His emphasis on practicality over partisan made him all too suited to the series of emergencies Kentucky faced during his first term, including the Covid pandemic, a catastrophic tornado outbreak and a series of deadly floods. Some of the most pronounced shifts in Mr. Beshear’s favor from 2019 occurred in the counties hardest hit by these disasters.
In some of these counties he refused to support the Republicans. Last week, The Mountain Eagle Newspaper in flood-ravaged Letcher County asked its readers, “Why would anyone here even consider voting for anyone else?”
Still, there are limits to what Mr. Beshear can accomplish even if he wanted to pursue a more stridently Democratic agenda. Republicans have an overwhelming majority in the legislature and need only a simple majority to override a governor’s veto. And while Mr. Beshear promised bipartisanship to a raucous room of supporters on Tuesday, it is unclear how amicable Republicans will be toward a now limited governor after a particularly painful campaign.
“He’s not going to get anything done,” said Trey Grayson, a Republican and former Kentucky secretary of state. Governors are constitutionally weak in Kentucky anyway, but a Democrat who cannot run again will be particularly isolated. “His policy impact will be very minimal,” Mr Grayson said.
And with legislatures across the country readily taking up debates on abortion and the rights of transgender students, Mr. Beshear could not always avoid being out of step with the feelings of conservative Kentucky.
But unlike some other red-state Democrats — such as term-limited Governor John Bel Edwards in Louisiana, who has been open about his opposition to abortion — Mr. Beshear is “a traditional liberal Democrat,” says Dan Bayens, a Kentucky-based politician. Republican consultant. And he did not shy away from his views.
He forced the Legislature to override his veto of the state’s tough law aimed at curbing LGBTQ rights and banning transition care for transgender youth, rather than simply enshrining it into law. Conservative and Republican groups, such as the American Principles Project, poured millions of dollars into ads and direct voter campaigns attacking Mr. Beshear for his support of transgender rights, AdImpact data shows.
And his campaign delivered one horrible ad about Mr Cameron’s opposition to abortion rights, targeting a young woman who said she was raped by her stepfather as a 12-year-old. (At a victory celebration on Tuesday in Louisville, Mr. Beshear thanked the woman for her courage.)
“It shows that running campaigns based on hate and identity politics is not an effective strategy,” said Emma Curtis, chair of Fayette County Young Democrats and one of several activists who fought against the ban on transition care.
The Beshear name has certainly helped the governor in a state that values family traditions, Bayens said, although many voters now call the governor only Andy. “People just like him,” said Mr Bayens.
Becky Crain, 65, is typically a Republican voter, but she found herself having more trouble than usual deciding who to vote for on the eve of Election Day. Although she worried that Mr. Cameron would roll back the Medicaid expansion that Democrats championed, she and her son, Dakota, ultimately sided with Mr. Cameron because they agreed with him on social issues.
But Ms. Crain said she wasn’t particularly concerned about the prospect of a second term for Mr. Beshear, especially given the work he had done after the tornado in Bowling Green, about seven miles from her home.
“He has done good for this state,” she said.
Maggie Astor reporting contributed.