Israeli analysts say Rafah's invasion is unlikely
The Israeli leadership has seen an invasion of the city of Rafah in southern Gaza as a necessity to achieve its goal of eliminating Hamas. But it is a strategy fraught with complexity and generating criticism about the potentially catastrophic impact such an operation would have on the more than 1 million Gaza residents sheltering there.
The planning will likely take the Israeli military some time, Israeli officials and analysts said Sunday. A major challenge for the Israeli forces will be how to move civilians who have entered the city out of harm's way. Many Gazans fled to Rafah on instructions from the Israeli army to avoid the fighting further north in Gaza, and a chorus of international leaders have expressed concern that people there have nowhere to go.
The Biden administration has also expressed concern about a new phase of the Israeli offensive coinciding with the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, according to reports in Israeli media. An attack during Ramadan – expected to begin on March 10, although the timing depends on the sighting of the moon over Mecca –
could be considered particularly provocative and could stir emotions among Muslims in the region and beyond.
Israeli officials say the army is still working on its plans to invade Rafah and have not yet presented them to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the meantime, some have struck a defiant tone about the expected attack on a city that officials have called the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza.
“The Rafah operation will take place,” Avi Dichter, a minister from Netanyahu's conservative Likud party, told Israeli public broadcaster Kan on Sunday. “It will start and end just like other places,” he said.
He also rejected the idea that Ramadan should pose any restrictions. “Ramadan is not a month without wars – it never has been,” he said, noting that Egypt went to war against Israel during Ramadan in 1973.
Israeli officials and analysts say Israel is well aware of the difficulties in mounting an intensive campaign in Rafah.
“Israel understands that Rafah is a complex issue,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former general and national security adviser. “It's not imminent,” he said of the operation, “but it will have to happen.”
Mr. Amidror, now a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, a conservative think tank, said that if Israel wants to achieve its war aims of dismantling Hamas' military capabilities and its ability to govern, the army must “enter Rafah.” to destroy the country. the remaining Hamas battalions there.
But given the population density at the moment, Israeli authorities understand that doing so without evacuating civilians would be “almost impossible,” he said.
That means relocating civilians in Rafah – Mr Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC News that Israel was “developing a detailed plan” to do that.
He gave no details about where or how that might happen. Mr Dichter suggested that Gaza residents could be moved to an area west of Rafah along the coast. Mr. Amidror suggested other options, including some areas in central Gaza where the army has not yet operated, or the nearby town of Khan Younis, once Israel ends its campaign there.
Gabby Sobelman reporting contributed.