How Taiwan's elections fit into the island's past and future
Saturday's elections in Taiwan have major consequences not only for the 23 million people living on the island, but also for the rivalry between China and the United States.
Voters chose as their next president Lai Ching-te, the current vice president, who has pledged to continue his party's policies to protect the island's sovereignty. The vote is a rebuke of Beijing's claim to Taiwan and the country's growing pressure on democracy on the island.
As in all major elections in Taiwan, tackling China was central to the campaigns. The question has only become more urgent as Beijing has increased its military activities near Taiwan, raising the specter of a future conflict that could impact the United States.
What is the controversy over Taiwan's status?
Since 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government fled mainland China for Taiwan after losing a civil war against Mao Zedong's communist forces, the island's status and future have been in question.
On Taiwan, Generalissimo Chiang and his Nationalist Party imposed martial law on the island for decades while harboring dreams of reconquering the mainland. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, lost its membership in the United Nations in 1971 when the People's Republic of China took over on the mainland.
Democratization in the 1990s paved the way for the emergence of a Taiwanese identity separate from the Chinese identity imposed on the island by nationalists.
Taiwan, about 80 miles off the Chinese coast, is functionally independent, with its own constitution, military, democratically elected representatives, currency and customs regime. Citizens carry green passports, which are accepted by immigration authorities in many countries. The country is now seen as a leader in human rights in Asia – a sharp contrast to authoritarian China.
Only a handful of countries officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, despite being treated almost as such by many countries.
What is China's position?
China's ruling Communist Party continues to claim sovereignty over Taiwan, even though it has never governed the island. Beijing calls the island 'Taiwan region' and says any questions about its future are purely an internal Chinese matter. It demands that all countries accept the One China Principle, which states that Taiwan is part of its territory.
Beijing is pressing its claim to Taiwan on the international stage by blocking the island's attempts to join international bodies such as the World Health Organization. When Taiwan participates in the Olympic Games, it is called 'Chinese Taipei'.
Xi Jinping, China's leader, has said China would continue to push for “peaceful reunification” but reserved the right to use force if Beijing deemed it necessary.
Chinese warplanes and warships regularly conduct exercises near Taiwan, eroding the informal border between the mainland and the island in the central reservation of the Taiwan Strait, which Chinese troops have rarely crossed in the past.
Few analysts believe that an invasion by China is imminent, but Beijing has a variety of tools to exert influence, besides military intimidation.
What is the US position on Taiwan?
The United States is the main funder of Taiwan's security, and the island has been a flashpoint between the United States and China since the early years of the Cold War.
Two crises in the 1950s almost led to a military conflict between China and the United States, and Washington supported Chiang's government in Taiwan for decades.
When the United States recognized communist-ruled China in 1979, Washington pursued a deliberately ambiguous “one China” policy: recognizing, but not endorsing, Beijing's position that its territory includes Taiwan.
In the decades since, the United States has maintained ties with Taiwan, including through arms sales, and periodic tensions over the island have not derailed economic relations between the United States and China.
Why is Taiwan a geopolitical flashpoint?
Asked on Saturday for comment on Taiwan's election of Mr Lai as president, President Biden reiterated the long-standing US position that the country does not support Taiwan's independence, comments that appeared intended to reassure China to set.
But he has previously said he would defend the democratic island militarily if it were invaded by China, comments that depart from the official US policy of “strategic ambiguity” on how the country would respond if China were to invade.
The Taiwan issue has flared up again and again, especially as relations between Washington and Beijing have become tense in recent years.
In 2022, then-Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi angered Beijing with a trip to Taipei, and a visit to the United States last year by Mr. Lai, who is currently Taiwan's vice president, received widespread attention . Chinese warplanes have tested Taiwan's defenses, and US warships have defied Chinese pressure in the Taiwan Strait.
Who is the newly elected president of Taiwan?
Mr Lai is a member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has long rejected Beijing's demands for unification. His main rival was a member of the opposition Nationalist Party, who has pledged to expand trade ties and resume talks with China.
The now president-elect, Mr. Lai, has pledged to continue President Tsai Ing-wen's approach of keeping Beijing at bay and avoiding conflict, and strengthening ties with the United States and other democracies.
“We tell the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” Mr Lai said in his victory speech on Saturday, pledging to defend Taiwan's identity.
But when he takes office in May for a four-year term, Mr Lai will face tough questions about how to handle Taiwan's relations with Beijing. Mr Lai has said dialogue with Beijing is possible if Taiwan is treated with “equal respect”.
Polls show most Taiwanese favor maintaining the island's ambiguous status quo, rather than seeking outright independence at the risk of possible retaliation from Beijing.