Will Abortion Dominate the 2024 Elections? Tuesday will provide clues.

Abortion originated as a defining fault line of this year’s election, with resulting contests Tuesday in several states offering new tests of the issue’s political potency, nearly 18 months after the Supreme Court ended a federal right to abortion.

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade threw American politics into turmoil in 2022, turning a long-standing social conflict into an electoral battering ram that helped propel Democrats to crucial victories in midterm races. Now that abortion restrictions and bans have become a reality in red states, the issue is once again on the agenda, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country.

In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has taken advantage of the state’s near-total ban on abortions — which was triggered by the fall of Roe. — to portray his Republican opponent as an extremist. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution could measure the extent of the nation’s political turn toward abortion rights.

And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script on the state’s legislative elections, labeling Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party is a “common sense based position”. ” – a 15-week ban.

The contests provide a preview of how abortion will shape the political landscape in next year’s presidential and congressional elections — and the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches.

Strategists from across the political spectrum agree that abortion remains highly energizing for the Democratic coalition, especially in states where Republicans could implement further restrictions. In Pennsylvania, where the parties are vying for a seat on the state Supreme Court, even a gun control advocacy group began running ads supporting the Democratic nominee by raising the alarm about the future of abortion rights — a tacit nod to the resonance of the issue.

“It’s still a very, very powerful issue for people, both in terms of motivating Democrats to vote and as a very fruitful persuasion issue for swing voters,” said Angela Kuefler, a longtime Democratic pollster who has worked on the proposed Ohio amendment works.

What remains less clear is how effective Democrats’ arguments will be in conservative areas and whether Republicans can fend off some of the attacks.

That’s what Republicans are trying to do in Virginia, where Republican candidates such as state Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, a gynecologist running in one of the state’s most hotly contested races for a newly redistricted seat, have aired numerous ads on the issue.

In one ad, she says, “I am not in favor of an abortion ban,” even though she supports a 15-week ban on the procedure, with exceptions for rape, incest, women’s health and cases of various fetal abnormalities. She argues that a 15-week restriction is not a ban, but rather “legislation that reflects compassionate common sense.”

“Every Republican in a swing district knows the Democratic playbook that will be used against them,” said Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist and advertising executive working on the race. “The abortion issue can define you, or you can define it in your campaign.”

Since Roe was overturned, Democrats have prevailed on six of the six ballot measures that have put the issue of abortion directly to voters. This year, national groups supporting both parties poured tens of millions of dollars into Ohio’s election, turning an off-year ballot into one of this fall’s most important races.

A victory in Ohio would provide further fuel for abortion rights efforts next year. That will be especially true in key battleground states where campaigns are already underway, including Arizona, Florida and Missouri, said Amy Natoce, spokeswoman for Protect Women Ohio, a group founded by national anti-abortion groups to oppose the amendment..

“We know all eyes are on Ohio right now,” she said. “States considering similar constitutional changes are looking to us.”

In Kentucky, Mr. Beshear is further exploring the limits of where abortion can mobilize a Democratic coalition. Since the end of Roe, the state has been embroiled in a political battle over how to regulate abortion. A trigger law that took effect immediately after the decision banned abortion in virtually all circumstances except to save the woman’s life or prevent serious injury. Attempts by abortion providers to block the ban in court were rejected.

Last fall, voters rejected a ballot measure that would have amended the state constitution to ensure that the document did not include a right to abortion.

In his campaign ads, Mr. Beshear has focused on how his Republican opponent, Daniel Cameron, supports a near-total ban.

The Beshear campaign has aired some of the most searing spots of the cycle, including live on-camera testimony from a woman who was raped by her stepfather as a child. She says in the ad that Mr Cameron would force child victims to carry their rapists’ babies.

“We have the most extreme law in the country, where victims of rape and incest, some as young as nine years old, have no choice,” Mr. Beshear said last week in Richmond, Kentucky. “The people of Kentucky have enough empathy to believe those little girls should have options.

After the advert was broadcast, Mr Cameron, the Attorney General, reversed his position and said he would support making an exception in state law in cases of rape or incest. Even if Mr. Beshear is re-elected, he will likely struggle to change the state’s abortion law because Republicans control the Legislature.

Courtney Norris, a spokeswoman for Mr Cameron, said in a statement: “Andy characterizes and outright lies about Daniel’s position on a number of issues in an attempt to divert attention from his failures as governor and his extreme record on this issue . .”

Still, not every red-state Democrat has embraced Mr. Beshear’s approach. Just as during the midterm elections, when abortion benefited Democrats most in states like Arizona and Michigan, where the right to the procedure was in immediate jeopardy, Democrats are exploiting the issue race by race.

In Mississippi, Brandon Presley, the Democratic candidate for governor, has promoted his “pro-life” stance in television ads and focused on issues such as Medicaid expansion. And Shawn Wilson, a Democrat who lost the race for governor in Louisiana last month, said he was personally “pro-life.” Both are deeply conservative states that ban abortion under almost all circumstances.

In Virginia, where abortion remains legal until the second trimester, Republicans are among those softening their approach. Mr. Youngkin has tried to be proactive in his messaging on abortion, promising to sign a 15-week ban if he and his Republican allies take control of both chambers of the Legislature.

Such a policy would have significant implications for the entire region, as Virginia has become a destination for patients throughout the South seeking the procedure. Currently, abortion remains legal in the state until almost 27 weeks, and beyond if necessary to save the woman’s life.

Most doctors say there is no medical basis for terminating an abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Nor would it stop the vast majority of abortions, as more than 93 percent occur before that stage of pregnancy, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But fifteen weeks is the point at which many polls indicate a majority of Americans would support restrictions.

That’s one reason why Youngkin’s political committee spent $1.4 million on ads, with the spot imposing a “reasonable” 15-week limit and accusing Democrats of disinformation because a heartbeat can be heard in the background. hearing is. “This is the truth: there is no ban” says the narrator.

National Republican strategists have also pushed that message, urging their candidates to embrace a 15-week ban and make exceptions in cases of rape, incest and risks to women’s physical health — all relatively popular positions in the House. big public.

Zack Roday, a top political adviser to Mr. Youngkin, said Republicans were trying to reclaim and refocus the extremist label. He said Republicans should proactively neutralize that attack and create a “consent structure” for voters who are wary of Republican candidates’ positions on abortion but like their approach to other issues.

“They understand that 40 weeks no limit is extreme,” Mr Roday said. “We’re trying to regain that and reduce it. Because if you do that, voters will look at you more broadly.”

Democrats say there are significant complications in Mr. Youngkin’s strategy. Opinion polls shows that there is a multiplicity of voters aversion the Republican approach to abortion rights. In private meetings and research memos, even some Republican strategists have urged their candidates to move away from the “pro-life” label, saying many Americans now equate the term with support for a total ban.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign in 2020. worked, said voters often saw the issue of abortion as a battle for personal autonomy, and were less interested in a number of weeks or specific procedures. exceptions.

“Before Dobbs, people were very willing to accept exceptions and limitations,” she said. “Now they’re much less open to that conversation, because they think there’s a bigger fundamental issue at play here.”

She added: “The fundamental freedom to abortion has been taken away from us, and we want to guarantee that right.”

Sen. Scott Surovell, the campaign chairman of the Virginia Senate Democratic caucus, said abortion remains the top issue driving people to vote.

When Mr. Surovell first heard that Mr. Youngkin’s operation planned to spend more than $1 million on abortion ads, he said he felt the same as “the Union troops at Gettysburg” when the Confederate army famously made a fateful indictment.

“Are you going to try to sue us here?” he said. “Are they going to try to attack us while we’re here on high ground?”

Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting from Richmond, Kentucky.