A blink-and-you'll-miss-it visit puts American-Israeli tensions at the forefront
As Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel this week, American and Arab officials expressed cautious optimism about Hamas' latest proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
But just hours after speaking to Mr. Blinken, Mr. Netanyahu seemed more interested in delivering a fiery message aimed at his domestic audience. Instead of appearing side by side at a news conference with the foreign minister after they met on Wednesday – as is customary on such trips – the Israeli leader got ahead of him. During his own meeting with reporters, he denounced the very proposal that the Americans saw as a potential opening for a negotiated solution.
“Surrender to Hamas's ridiculous demands – which we have just heard – will not lead to the liberation of the hostages, and will only lead to another massacre,” Mr Netanyahu said. Shortly afterwards, Mr Blinken gave his own, much more measured assessment of the Hamas offer at a news conference in Jerusalem, saying that while it contained “obvious non-starters”, it also left room for an agreement.
On Thursday, as Mr Blinken ended his fifth visit to the Middle East in the four months since the war in Gaza began, it was clear that relations between the Biden administration and Mr Netanyahu have become increasingly fraught. That raised questions about how lengthy the process could be to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
Mr. Blinken has sought to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, a release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and, ultimately, a broader peace process for the region. But a stumbling block during his visit appeared to be the significant domestic political pressure the Israeli prime minister faced.
Mr. Blinken sought to convey to Mr. Netanyahu that the United States, working with its Arab allies, was offering significant incentives for a peace agreement. These include an openness to helping Gaza rebuild, as well as the prospect of formal diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a regional superpower, if the Israelis agree to a process leading to a Palestinian state and including Palestinian administration of Gaza.
But if Netanyahu prioritizes his domestic audience in negotiations with Hamas, he could test the patience of Arab leaders, who are increasingly frustrated by the rising number of Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza.
“It will be up to the Israelis to decide what they want to do, when they want to do it, how they want to do it,” Mr. Blinken said. “No one is going to make those decisions for them. All we can do is show what the possibilities are, what the options are, what the future could be, and compare it to the alternative. And the alternative right now seems like an endless cycle of violence, destruction and despair.”
Despite the potential benefits of a peace deal, Mr Netanyahu sounded determined to continue the war.
US-Israeli tensions resurfaced after Hamas, the armed Palestinian group that long controlled Gaza and led the October 7 attack on Israel, responded to a plan to end hostilities elaborated by the United States, Israel, Egypt and Qatar. .
Hamas called on Israel to withdraw from Gaza, end its long-standing blockade of the territory and release Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons in exchange for the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in Gaza. According to HaMoked, an Israeli rights group, Israel holds more than 9,000 Palestinian prisoners, citing Israeli Prison Service data.
Just hours after meeting Mr Blinken, Mr Netanyahu rejected Hamas's terms, saying Israel does not want to withdraw completely from Gaza or let Hamas retain any control over the territory.
Mr. Netanyahu is also weighing the reaction of the Israeli public, much of which currently sees the defeat of Hamas as a higher priority than a hostage deal. He must also soften his coalition's far-right flank, which has threatened to withdraw from the government, something that could potentially lead to his ouster.
His far-right coalition partner and Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, recently threatened to quit if Netanyahu negotiates a deal with Hamas that frees the hostages but leaves the group in power.
“Although Netanyahu claims to defend Israel's national security interests in Gaza, he has a personal incentive to continue and, if possible, expand this war, knowing that once this war ends, his day of reckoning with the Israeli people will arrive and his career will end. It's over,” said Nader Hashemi, professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University.
“He oversaw national security on October 7, and the Israelis will demand responsibility for what happened,” said Mr. Hashemi, using a nickname for the prime minister to argue that “this complicates negotiations between Blinken and Bibi and situation could derail. any prospects for a ceasefire with Hamas.”
Mr Netanyahu has rejected claims that he has allowed personal considerations to override Israeli interests. When asked for comment, his office said his critics abroad “do not realize that the prime minister reflects the views of most Israelis.”
Biden administration officials say negotiations will continue in the coming days, and Mr. Blinken has said he still believes a consensus can be reached. And despite Mr. Netanyahu's comments the day earlier, Israeli officials suggested Thursday that Israel is still open to negotiations.
“There is agreement among the members of the governing coalition and especially among individual members of the government that we must get the hostages back and make a deal,” Minister Miki Zohar said in a radio interview on Thursday morning.
“But not at any price,” Mr. Zohar said. “For example, they will not agree with stopping the war.”
Israeli leaders believed Hamas's core demands were unacceptable, but there was room for discussion if the offer appeared to be an opening offer, according to two Israeli government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
While Mr. Netanyahu may not be able to agree to a permanent cessation of fighting or the release of all Palestinian prisoners, he might agree to release about a thousand prisoners during a month-long ceasefire, said Nadav Shtrauchler, a political analyst who once led Mr. Netanyahu. media strategist.
A longer truce of as Hamas has proposed, could easily become permanent — something Mr. Netanyahu could not live with, Mr. Shtrauchler said.
“He still left a window open,” Mr. Shtrauchler said. “The door is closed, but the window is still open. Not for that deal, which he could not accept, but for another deal.”
Israel began bombing Gaza after Hamas attacked on October 7, killing about 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials. A ground invasion soon followed, and in the four months of the military offensive, more than 27,000 people in Gaza – most of them women and minors – have been killed, according to the territory's health officials.
“Netanyahu faces enormous political constraints if he goes along with what Hamas seems to want,” said Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East peace negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“In fact, the Biden administration is the only party that seems to be in a hurry. They want to change the disastrous images in Gaza; ease the political pressure at home and try to conclude this with an Israeli-Saudi deal. The problem is that, based on my experience, negotiations in the Middle East are at two speeds: slow and slower.”