Graduates are also fleeing California’s major cities
California is expensive – it’s no secret.
Nor is the fact that lower-paid, less-educated workers have for years left for more affordable states, such as Texas, Nevada or Idaho. Those losses were mostly offset in part by net gains in college graduates who can more easily afford California’s high cost of living.
But a New York Times analysis of census data notes that working-age graduates have also moved out of our most expensive metropolitan regions, even before the coronavirus pandemic began. Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose crossed a significant threshold in 2020 and 2021: more highly skilled workers left than moved in.
“When California was already struggling with the loss of people due to migration, they basically stuck with people with college degrees, but over time that situation started to change,” said my colleague Robert Gebeloff, who conducted the new analysis along with Emily Badger and Josh Katz. “When the pandemic came, it accelerated everything — and the loss of graduates got even bigger.”
The proliferation of remote work has allowed people to rethink where they live, and perhaps hold down high-paying jobs in places like the Bay Area without actually having to live there.
This trend extends beyond California. The analysis found that a growing number of college graduates were leaving from the country’s 12 most expensive metropolitan areas, including New York City, Chicago and Seattle. Affordability has declined so much in these places, the analysis suggests, that some of the best-educated, well-paid workers don’t want to stay.
The findings are especially relevant in California. Four of the 12 most expensive metropolitan areas are here. Robert told me that the team originally planned to explore what migration looked like in high-priced US cities without focusing on any one state, but that “coincidentally, a lot of them are in California.”
Their findings are consistent with my recent reporting that California’s population declined for the third year in a row by 2022. One of the reasons demographers cited was a net exodus of highly educated, high-income Californians to other states.
People fleeing these expensive big cities often move to other big cities that are a bit more affordable, such as Phoenix, Denver and Austin, as well as Sacramento and Riverside. Many of these cities have recently developed some of the amenities you would associate with a place the size of New York or Los Angeles, such as diverse restaurant scenes and revitalized downtowns.
“Part of that is that the most expensive places have gotten really expensive,” Rebecca Diamond, an economist at Stanford University, said of shifting migration patterns. “But the middle class places also became more attractive.”
Jim Dalrymple II left Los Angeles when the smallest, cheapest house he and his wife could find in the city was no longer big enough for children. They moved in 2019 to a much larger home within walking distance of downtown Salt Lake City.
“I love LA, I thought we’d stay there indefinitely — I still miss it,” said Dalrymple, 41, a writer. He remembered the plentiful jobs and affordable housing that once drew his grandparents, who were educators, to Southern California.
“I would like to take advantage of that myself,” he said. “It is not available to us. And it is not available to many people.”
Where we travel
Today’s tip comes from Mike McNiff, who lives in Costa Mesa:
“The Wedge in Newport Beach is a world famous bodysurfing beach next to the entrance to Newport Harbor. Whenever a big swell hits, TV news crews and large crowds gather on the shore to challenge brave — and some say insane — watermen to the beach break, generating “ooohs” and “ahhhs” galore. It’s also the starting point of a great walk through the sands on the Balboa Peninsula, going as far as you want, with spectacular views of Catalina and the Pacific Ocean. Even on non-surfing days it’s a great place to just sit and enjoy a good book or take in the natural beauty as you watch the boats come and go in the harbour.”
Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We will share more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.
Tell us
My colleague Jill Cowan reported on the enduring fame of P-22, a mountain lion who became an icon for Angelenos.
While there have been plenty of famous domesticated animals, we’d love to hear about wild animals that have become celebrities for you. Did you have a bird, bear, or deer in your community that you became attached to? Tell us about it and why you became a fan. Email us at CAtoday@nytimes.com with your suggestions.
And before you go, good news
The Bay Area is entering a golden era of tacos, with a serious effort to represent different taco styles, That reports the San Francisco Chronicle:
“For many taqueros, the pandemic has been a driver of opportunity, creating a renewed energy around tacos. The movement is a combination of nostalgia and necessity: people looking for a taste of home, preserving tradition and looking for a way to make some extra money.”
Thank you for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumja
PS Here it is today’s mini crossword.
You can reach the California Today team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.
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