China and the US are talking, but their détente has limits

China and the United States are back at the negotiating table. Whether they can agree on many things is another matter.

In Bangkok last week, China's top diplomat discussed North Korea and Iran with President Biden's national security adviser. Days later, officials in Beijing restarted long-stalled talks on curbing the flow of fentanyl into the United States. And the White House says Biden plans to speak by phone with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the spring.

The developments indicate a cautious detente between Mr Biden and Mr Xi a summit near San Francisco in November – and both the potential and limitations of that thaw in relations. As the world's two superpowers do their best to manage the frictions, diplomacy has also exposed the rift at the heart of the tensions: how to define the relationship.

The Biden administration has maintained that the countries are strategic competitors, and that the meetings are crucial to ensuring the rivalry does not spiral into conflict. However, Chinese officials reject this framework and view competition as a code for control. At the meetings, they put forward a new slogan, the “San Francisco Vision,” claiming that Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden agreed at the summit to stabilize relations and put aside competition.

The divergent rhetoric underlines the fragility of the current reset, especially in an election year when Mr. Biden will come under pressure to take tough action on China, and as concerns about the crisis grow warnings from the Federal Bureau of Investigation that Chinese hackers were ramping up plans to infiltrate US infrastructure in the event of war.

For Mr. Biden, the fentanyl talks in Beijing are one of the few outcomes from the San Francisco summit that he can point to as a victory. China is the top source of chemicals used to make fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills 100,000 Americans every year. U.S. officials have long wanted China to do more to limit exports of these chemicals, known as precursors, but Beijing stopped cooperating as ties deteriorated in recent years.

To get China to resume regular talks on fentanyl, Washington agreed in November to Beijing's demand that U.S. sanctions on a forensic institute run by China's Ministry of Public Security be lifted. The institute was placed on a trade blacklist in 2020, accused of complicity in abuses against China's ethnic minorities such as the Uyghurs. The Biden administration said the lifting of sanctions was justified because China had shuttered a number of companies exporting fentanyl precursors and closed their bank accounts.

Beijing has also moved to lower tensions in other areas. In December, it resumed talks between the two countries' militaries, which Washington has pushed for in the hope of reducing the risk of accidental conflict in disputed areas such as the East China Sea and the South China Sea. The countries are also expected to hold talks soon on mitigating the risks of artificial intelligence technology.

For China, such diplomacy is partly aimed at reassuring the world that it is a responsible global player and doing its part to ensure stable relations, analysts say.

“If China and the United States increase their cooperation in international affairs, it can make Washington realize that China's international influence can be constructive and beneficial to US interests,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

But on other, more complicated geopolitical issues, such as the spreading crisis in the Middle East and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the rapprochement may have limited impact, analysts say. China has influence over Iran and North Korea as one of the only major countries in the world to maintain robust diplomatic and trade ties with the two heavily sanctioned countries.

Last week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan urged Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China to put pressure on Iran to rein in the Houthi rebels. attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and convince North Korea to reverse its policies threats of war.

But Beijing can only do so much without damaging its own interests, analysts say.

China's priority on the Korean Peninsula is to preserve the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, ensuring his country remains a crucial buffer between the Chinese border and U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. That makes Beijing reluctant to pressure Pyongyang too hard, and it makes Kim less susceptible to Chinese pressure.

As for the Red Sea, China has an interest in easing tensions there as it has invested billions of dollars in logistics and energy to expand trade in the region. China has said it has communicated with “several parties” to end attacks on commercial shipping.

But Beijing must balance the pressure it is putting on Iran with its attempt to court Middle Eastern countries to counter US global dominance. It has tried to avoid siding too closely with Washington in a region where it has gained goodwill by expressing greater sympathy for the Palestinian cause and blaming US support for Israel as the root cause of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Beijing's recent rhetoric toward the United States underlines that the country is still trying to take a tough stance and act on its own terms, while also seeking something in return for working with Washington.

Mr. Wang told Mr. Sullivan during their meeting that the United States and China should treat each other as “equals” instead of being condescending. The White House has said it is trying to arrange a phone call between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi in the coming months. However, China has not yet confirmed such a plan.

Chinese propaganda organs such as Global Times, a Communist Party newspaper, published editorials this week saying Washington should “nurturing China's goodwill” by agreeing to discuss the fentanyl issue. Another editorial suggested the United States should “talk kindly to China” if it wants Beijing's help in pressuring Iran.

At the same time, inaction poses a risk for Beijing. China has tried to cast itself as a more credible global peacemaker than the United States by shunning security alliances and calling for dialogue to resolve crises, not military interventions like the U.S. and British attacks on the Houthis. Yet Beijing has been unable or unwilling to try to contain partners like Russia, Iran, North Korea and Pakistan at a time when they are at the center of the fighting. some of the most dangerous conflicts in the world.

“If Beijing fails to stop its best friends from shooting each other, the narrative that China is an architect of global security and a stabilizing force could pose increasing credibility problems,” said Sheena Greitens, a political scientist who studies Asian security. at the University of Texas, Austin.

Ultimately, detente with the United States could be a way for China to buy itself more breathing space.

Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former US deputy secretary of state, said Beijing's easing of tensions with Washington was a “tactical pause in the battle with the West”, allowing the Mr Xi could pay more attention to his country's struggling economy. China has seen a collapse in foreign investment and confidence due to rising debt, a real estate crisis and geopolitical tensions.

“The tactical pause, which serves several of Xi's interests at this time, should not be confused with a softening of Xi's resolve on so-called 'core interests,'” Mr. Russell said, referring to what Beijing has argued as non-negotiable issues. such as its claim to Taiwan and the right of the Communist Party to maintain its rule over China.