The Gaza war has buoyed the Egyptian leader ahead of the presidential vote

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi woke up on October 7, remarkably unpopular for someone considered a shoo-in for a third term – guaranteed by his authoritarian grip on the country to dominate elections starting Sunday, but heavily damaged by an economic collapse in slow motion.

The weeks that followed have overshadowed all that, with the financial worries of the war becoming the top item on the minds, lips and social media of many Egyptians. For Western partners and Persian Gulf supporters, the crisis has also highlighted Egypt’s crucial role as a conduit for humanitarian aid to Gaza and as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, the armed Palestinian group that led the October 7 attack on Israel and the war .

Mr. el-Sisi, a former general with a knack for sustained adversity, appeared to have made another breakthrough, one that has allowed him to position himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause at home and as an indispensable regional leader in Abroad.

In Cairo today it is widespread boycott of Western companies involved in supporting Israel has turned the simple act of serving a Pepsi into a serious misstep. Egyptians struggling to meet basic needs after nearly two years of record inflation have opened their wallets to help the victims of the Gaza war.

And in a country where protests have been banned for years, hundreds of people have defied arrest to march in solidarity with Palestinians.

The three-day presidential elections starting on Sunday are expected to cement el-Sisi’s position for a new six-year term: none of his three challengers stand a chance of ousting him.

Nevertheless, the president will have to steer carefully, analysts and diplomats say. The economic crisis that pierced El-Sisi’s aura of invulnerability continues to bleed households, businesses and the country’s finances. Gaza or no Gaza, Egypt is expected to devalue its currency after the elections, promising further pain for its people.

And with public support for the Palestinians at a high, Egyptians are on alert for any sign that their government may be complicit in the suffering in Gaza, whether it means giving in to Israeli restrictions on aid flowing into the territory from Egypt , or by proposals to move Gazans to Gaza. Egypt in exchange for aid – an idea that is widely opposed throughout the Arab world.

“The administration absolutely does not want to test the patience of the Egyptian people, not when it comes to Palestine,” said Hesham Sallam, a scholar of Arab politics at the Stanford Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

Like many in Cairo these days, Aya Khalil, 34, a private art teacher, said she no longer buys anything until she checks its origin against online lists of Western brands blacklisted for their support of Israel.

“Boycotting these brands is just a drop in the bucket, but I’m doing the only thing I can do,” she said.

Like many other Egyptians, she wondered whether the government was doing enough to pump aid into Gaza. Egypt blames Israel for limiting aid, but calls for an end to the 16-year-old joint Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza and for Egypt to stop giving Israel any control over Egypt’s border crossing with Gaza cases have increased in recent weeks.

Yet Egypt cannot afford to alienate Israel, with which it has developed a strong, if tacit, security partnership in the Sinai Peninsula, or agitate Western backers, especially when the country needs all the financial support it but can get.

Many Egyptians despair due to the poor economic picture and borrow month after month just to pay for basic needs. The price of sugar has recently doubled in some places, and inflation, which already tops 35 percent annually, is expected to worsen if the government devalues ​​the currency.

Before Hamas’s attack on Israel, there were unmistakable signs of Mr el-Sisi’s growing unpopularity.

An upstart challenger, Ahmed al-Tantawy, drew support from across Egypt with criticisms of the president that few others here had dared to voice since he began stifling dissent in recent years. Activists and liberals spoke expectantly of Mr el-Sisi’s eventual demise. Many Egyptians felt strength in numbers and no longer bothered to lower their voices before trashing their president.

Abroad, the International Monetary Fund and wealthy Gulf benefactors had grown impatient to wait for Egypt to deliver on its promises of economic reform, and no calculator could figure out how the country could avoid losing its $165 billion in foreign would not be able to meet debts.

Washington was in turmoil over allegations that Egypt bribed a senior US senator in exchange for official favors and sensitive information, leading Congress to block an additional $235 million in military aid to the Sisi government.

However, within days of Israel’s assault on Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 attacks, Mr. el-Sisi’s faltering appeared to have stabilized.

“Any war that comes is a good opportunity for him to make it his excuse for the economic crisis,” said Salah Ali, an engineer from the southern city of Aswan assigned to build what will be the president’s grand legacy project should be. a costly new capital that has increased Egypt’s debt burden.

“What do you mean by ‘elections’?” he added sarcastically, echoing the widespread belief that the outcome is predetermined, despite claims by a government spokesperson, Diaa Rashwan, that the vote shows Egypt is on a “serious path towards genuine political pluralism”.

The only Sisi challenger to generate any momentum, Mr. al-Tantawy, was driven out of the presidential race after government agents forcibly prevented his supporters from registering enough endorsements to put him on the ballot just before the war broke out, said his campaign: a headline quickly buried by the avalanche of news from Gaza. He is facing trial on what the rights group calls trumped-up charges and said 137 members of his campaign have been arrested.

The three other men who ultimately ended up on the ballot are little known. Even those with some opposition support have refrained from all but the mildest criticism of the president, perhaps out of fear for the fate of independent candidates in the 2018 elections, when all serious challengers to Mr el-Sisi were arrested .

Analysts say Egypt is reluctant to meet the terms of the $3 billion IMF bailout awarded last year. But the fund’s director, Kristalina Georgieva, has said the IMF would “very likely” increase the loan amount anyway in light of the war.

The European Union, fearing a new migration crisis, is also accelerating financing of about $10 billion for Egypt.

And liberal activists, Sisi supporters and many people in between have found themselves in a rare moment of unity, condemning the Israeli siege and bombing of Gaza and rejecting the idea of ​​Gazans moving to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, which borders the territory. are forced.

Many fear that such a displacement would mean the Palestinians would lose their own land forever and bring Hamas into a historically and emotionally charged part of Egypt, ultimately pushing Egypt into a war with Israel.

Mr. el-Sisi quickly read the room.

“The purpose of the suffocating blockade on the strip, of cutting off water and power and preventing the access of aid, is to push the Palestinians into Egypt,” Mr el-Sisi said at a joint press conference with Germany Chancellor on October 1. 18, one of many times he has made it clear that the answer is no.

“We reject the liquidation of the Palestinian cause and forced displacement in Sinai.”

But El-Sisi also strategically tapped into Egyptians’ anger and sadness over the war, analysts and diplomats say.

On October 20, groups close to the government organized a day of nationwide pro-Palestinian demonstrations that the government said attracted hundreds of thousands of people, a figure that could not be independently verified.

The meetings were widely covered in state media and were decorated with banners showing Mr el-Sisi’s photo next to images of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque – a not-so-subtle attempt to subvert the Palestinian cause to that of the Lord el-Sisi.

“Without Sisi we would be doomed,” said Reda Saad, 42, an employee of Egypt’s state gas company who had brought her four children to a meeting, when asked how she assessed his handling of the crisis.

She said she was “still angry” about Egypt’s economic crisis but had put that aside in light of Gaza’s suffering.

“That’s one thing,” she said, “and this is another.”

But dozens of people were arrested on the same day during separate marches as demonstrators chanted anti-Sisi slogans, signaling that government efforts to channel pro-Palestinian passions risk stoking domestic discontent.

“I’m just waiting for him to resign or leave,” said Omar, a government official in El-Arish, near the Gaza border. He asked to be identified only by his first name to avoid retaliation.

Until then, he said, “We will continue to live in this terrible reality.”

Mourad Hijazi reporting contributed.