El-Sisi shakes off the Egyptian crises and lasts another six years
In his more than a decade at the helm of the Arab world’s most populous country, there have been moments when President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt looked like a man dangling from an edge with his fingertips.
For example, there was the time a decade ago when the former general seized power by using the army to depose Egypt’s first freely elected president, a takeover that was capped by the killing of at least 800 anti-coup protesters one day. The The Rabaa Massacreas it became known, unleashed a storm of international condemnation on Mr el-Sisi’s head.
Or take the economic collapse of the past 21 months, when the currency crashed, prices soared and many Egyptians could no longer afford meat or their children’s school fees. Although the International Monetary Fund offered a bailout to help cover the president’s colossal debts, lenders and Egyptians alike appeared to quickly lose patience with what experts called Mr. el-Sisi’s ruinous management.
Yet he is still president ten years later – and back again six years later, as the results of this month’s presidential election confirm. Authorities said on Monday that Mr el-Sisi had won a third term with 89.6 percent of the vote.
No one doubted the outcome, given all the benefits of his authoritarian grip on the country. An added benefit came from the war in neighboring Gaza, which allowed Mr el-Sisi to establish himself as a strong leader at home and abroad, just as he did after conflicts in Libya, Sudan, Syria and beyond.
This is the turbulent map of Middle East geopolitics, a multi-frontal five-alarm fire that Mr el-Sisi, in his stubborn way, has made look like a rock of stability.
If Mr el-Sisi ever felt his grip slipping, he simply broke it, with regional crises eroding any pressure on him to reform. Small concessions on economic policy and human rights have never threatened his power, nor that of the military security establishment that runs the country and dominates its economy.
His self-confidence was evident in every public appearance. In a 2016 speechhe promised to pursue his vision for Egypt until the end of his life or his time as president.
If “you really love Egypt,” he declared to his clapping audience, “I say to all Egyptians who listen to me: listen only to my words. Just mine.”
It was the kind of saying that many Egyptians once embraced. After the turmoil of the Arab Spring in Egypt, when mass protests toppled authoritarian Hosni Mubarak in 2011, and the elections that followed, which brought to power an Islamist who was later widely vilified, the country greeted Mr. el- Sisi as a savior.
The audacity of his rise was overshadowed by an outburst of Sisi-themed products, such as chocolates with his likeness and a fast food sandwich named after him – and media praise from euphoric Egyptians. One actress praised his “bronzed, golden skin, as golden as the sun’s rays,” which “hides within a sharp, analytical fire.”
The president made full use of his carte blanche, especially by putting the shovel in the ground. He began transforming Egypt into a modern “new republic,” erecting a massive new capital in the desert, building miles of roads and bridges, and razing slums for Dubai-style redevelopment. The major projects, he promised, would revive Egypt’s economy.
All this was overseen by the military, where El-Sisi had spent his entire career before coming to power in 2014. And much of it was paid for with new debt.
The new capital drew on ancient Egyptian symbolism and exemplified what Robert Springborg, an expert on Egyptian political economy, called Mr. el-Sisi mentioned.
His vision for transformation was ‘to build ourselves and our country through our hard work and sacrifice,'” Mr Springborg said. The president spent countless speeches urging Egyptians to have fewer children, work harder and perform better eat healthier.
But lately, as the enormous costs of his megaprojects have plunged the economy into crisis, Mr. el-Sisi urged the Egyptians to simply eat less.
“If the price of prosperity and progress for a country is that it does not eat and drink,” he said this fall, when announcing his bid for a third term, “then we do not eat and drink.”
The Sisi mania had been cooling for years as the middle class shrank and repression hardened.
Still, many supported El-Sisi as a bulwark against terrorism and instability, including Egyptians concerned about militancy at home and fearful that their country would suffer the same fate as Syria or Yemen. Western countries also appeared willing to overlook their disgust at his human rights abuses and silencing of dissent and work with him in the fight against violent extremism and migration.
Time and time again, geography was the argument for him.
To the west of Egypt lies the endless conflict in Libya, and to the south lies the murderous bloodshed in Sudan. The Israeli attacks on Gaza are unfolding just across Egypt’s eastern border. To the north lies the Mediterranean Sea, and just beyond that lies Europe, whose leaders are panicking at the prospect of a new wave of migrants.
Egypt also controls the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes.
“Sisi is getting a big break because of the country he rules, just because of the location,” said Rabab el-Mahdi, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo.
Although the Obama administration had suspended military aid to Egypt following el-Sisi’s takeover in 2013, growing instability in the region had convinced the United States in 2015 to restore Egypt to its former status as the world’s leading second largest recipient of US military aid.
Mr. el-Sisi had already learned not to rely solely on American friendship, buy more weapons from France, Russia and others. In particular, his coziness with Moscow made the United States sit up and convince much of Washington that the United States needed to keep Cairo close to counter Russian influence.
President Donald J. Trump, who reportedly called Mr. el-Sisi “my favorite dictator,” had little trouble with the relationship. But President Biden said it was, calling during his first presidential campaign for “no blank checks” that would enable violations of Mr. el-Sisi’s rights.
Subsequently, during Israel’s May 2021 war in Gaza, Egypt deployed its contacts in Hamas, the armed group that controls the area, to help negotiate a ceasefire, once again proving its usefulness. Every American decision to keep Egypt at bay seemed to be falling apart.
Egypt was also working to shore up its image, releasing a number of high-profile dissidents (while arresting many more) and pointing to talks with the opposition as evidence that the country was opening up its political system.
This time, Egypt is in the news as the custodian of Gaza’s only gateway to the outside world, the only border crossing where humanitarian aid can enter Gaza and where pressure is mounting for desperate Gazans to be allowed to leave.
Cairo was also heavily involved in mediating the recent temporary ceasefire. Yet Qatar, a small Gulf monarchy, has had equal or greater prominence in the negotiations, underscoring how the rise of wealthy Gulf states and Egypt’s internal problems have shrunk its traditional role as a political and cultural beacon for the Middle East.
Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar el-Sadat, former Egyptian presidents, became world figures because of their influence in the region. Mr el-Sisi, on the other hand, has offered no vision for the post-crisis Middle East beyond the banalities, Professor el-Mahdi said.
Yet there is little doubt that Egypt was, is and will remain important.
“We are 7,000 years old,” said Nabil Fahmy, a former foreign minister. “We don’t work with sound bites.”
Egypt’s central position – and the consequences of a financial implosion in a country of 106 million people – have not been lost on international partners. The International Monetary Fund recently said it was in talks with Egypt to increase the $3 billion loan it offered last year. The European Union is accelerating financing of about $10 billion to Egypt.
However, analysts and activists have long warned that subsidizing El-Sisi’s mix of stifling political repression and economic mismanagement is a bad investment.
A 2016 IMF bailout averted a looming financial crisis but failed to force Egypt to confront its structural problems. Last year’s deal was stricter and required Egypt to take steps including relaxing military agreements stranglehold on the economy to boost private sector growth.
But Egypt has not met any of these conditions, most likely because, analysts say, the president is unwilling or unable to curb the military’s lucrative benefits.
“Stabilizing Sisi’s regime is not stability,” said Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. “Every year that passes, despite all the lifelines he has been given, the living standards of Egyptians have deteriorated.”
Before October 7, economic frustrations were running so high that some analysts and activists predicted a reckoning awaited the president. Some wondered whether Egyptians would revolt like they did in 2011. Others speculated that the military security establishment underpinning his rule would view him as too much of a liability and move to replace him.
Given the Gaza crisis, “I would have voted for him,” said Mohamed Taha, 51, an unemployed cook in Cairo’s lower-middle-class Shubra neighborhood. “But right now we are all hungry, people in Gaza and people here.”
He was deeply in debt and had only gone to the polls because he had heard that people were receiving the equivalent of about $6.67 for their right to vote, accusations against which Egypt has pushed back. But after trying two polling stations, he said he couldn’t get cash.
He left without casting a vote, saying he wouldn’t try again.