Ugly battle over climate law exposes cracks in German coalition
BERLIN — Germany’s coalition government has always been an uneasy trio of centre-left social democrats, climate-conscious greens and pro-business free democrats. But in the heady days following their 2021 election victory, the parties pledged to maintain a tradition of consensual politics and keep the drama behind closed doors.
Those doors are now swung open.
In recent days, the parties have engaged in unusual public ridicule over a shaky bill with the seemingly modest goal of reducing fossil fuel emissions from heating appliances in homes and other buildings.
While the stakes seem relatively small, the level of vitriol is anything but a reflection of a new era in which Germany’s once steadfast politics has become more unruly.
No one predicts a collapse of the coalition. But the public sparring has raised questions about how Germany will meet its commitments to Europe’s climate targets – as well as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ability to maintain effective stewardship of Europe’s most powerful economy.
“It is critical that the federal government demonstrates its ability to act,” he said Your Jun, a political scientist at the University of Trier. “Scholz has to show he can protect this government.”
For months, European Union officials have complained that the battle between the German coalition had begun to ripple through the bloc, overshadowing fossil fuel regulations, budget plans and debt policies.
The first signs of tension in the coalition came last summer, during a tug-of-war between the Greens and the Free Democrats over keeping nuclear power plants running beyond a previously agreed deadline. Then came a clash over European legislation on fossil fuel engines.
Now the gap on climate policy has widened even further due to the bill, which should ensure that newly installed heating systems run on at least 65 percent renewable energy from 2024.
Just a year ago, the mood seemed very different. The Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the parties closer together.
As Europe tried to halt the purchase of fossil fuels from Russia, Germany seemed particularly vulnerable: More than 50 percent of its natural gas came from Russia, thanks to a decades-long policy of doubling up on natural gas as a “bridge technology” to carbon neutrality.
But the German coalition has coped with the looming energy crisis with much more success than initially seemed possible.
Usually suspicious of climate policy, Treasury Secretary and head of the Free Democrats Christian Lindner hailed the promotion of renewable energy as “freedom energy”. The economy minister, Robert Habeck, a leader of the Green Party, became the unlikely face for the construction of liquefied natural gas terminals and the re-firing of coal plants.
Now, safely through the worst, the two underlings in Mr. Scholz’s coalition have gone into attack mode.
In recent days, a Conservative politician portrayed Mr Habeck as an East German Stasi, or secret police officer, spying on people’s homes.
Free Democratic Leaders leaned into the conservative caricature of the Greens as the “ban party” and dubbed the bill the “heating ban bill.”
When the Free Democrats blocked the bill from entering parliament last week – despite having previously approved it in cabinet – the Greens described them as dishonest salesmen and an “unreliable and destructive cabal”.
In the midst of the mudslinging, political observers are beginning to wonder: Where is the Chancellor?
“It is no longer just about the content,” wrote the weekly Die Zeit. “It is now about trust within the government. The question is whether the coalition is still operational after a year and a half. And it’s about the authority of Olaf Scholz.”
For the Greens, Mr Habeck’s heating bill is key to their plans to meet Germany’s climate targets.
For the Free Democrats, the bill’s restrictions on private household choices are annoying belief that technological innovation, not regulation, should determine climate policy. .
“This law makes our people feel insecure, and we need to reassure them,” said Bijan Sjir-Sarai, the secretary general of the Free Democrats. “It’s just a matter of preventing a bad law and achieving a good law. And that should be the goal of politics as far as I’m concerned.”
None of this lightens the mood among the Germans. Concerned about being left out in the cold last winter come spring, they’ve turned their concerns to their wallets and personal choices.
Part of the bill’s challenge may lie in the coalition’s failure or unwillingness to link the bill to recent painful lessons about Germany’s dependence on fossil fuels.
Weaning Germany off Russian gas took 300 billion euros, about $320 billion, from the state coffers last year. Today, Germany has simply traded its energy dependency from Russia to countries like Norway, the United States or Qatar.
The fear of being temporarily disadvantaged has taken over a more important long-term reality, said Nina Scheer, the spokeswoman for climate and energy politics for the Social Democrats in parliament.
“This should be a bill about enabling people, not restrictions,” she said. As climate policies are put in place, fossil fuel prices will rise, she said – and households will bear the cost: “It is a false certainty to believe that if you keep everything as it is, it will be safe. We learned what that means last year.”
The German heating bill would really only do what other European countries have already done. From Scandinavia to France to Italy, they all have laws promoting low-carbon heating systems. Even in Poland, which clings to coal, heat pump installations increased by 120 percent last year.
German buildings are responsible for 15 percent of the country’s total CO2 emissions. Reducing that level is essential if the country hopes to meet its climate goals.
Last year, Germany barely met its targets to cut emissions by nearly 2 percent, and the country’s environmental agency has warned that further reductions are needed in the coming years.
The Greens, supported by climate experts and scientists, argue that changes in personal habits are urgently needed. But after successive German governments promoted natural gas heating, it’s now an uphill battle to make that case.
“This is the first time that climate protection has reached people in their private lives,” says Elisabeth Staudt, an energy efficiency researcher at Environmental Action Germany, a non-profit advocacy group. “It’s so emotional because it has to do with people’s homes.”
Looking for a way out of the crisis, Mr Habeck, the economy minister, has proposed possible revisions to his bill and invited coalition partners to negotiate on Tuesday.
But amid questions about how the coalition can heal its openly displayed wounds, Mr Scholz has largely remained silent. And his Social Democrats can only give a muted answer.
This is the conclusion of Katja Mast, first secretary of the parliamentary group of the Social Democrats the Greens had also blocked parts of other bills on tolls and highways – a possible escalation in the fight over climate policy.
She urged the parties to come together to pass the necessary bills: “It is with great goodwill that we will achieve this. I appeal to that goodwill.”