Trump has made claims of caucus fraud. What if he underperforms?

The last time Donald J. Trump participated in competitive Iowa caucuses, he narrowly lost, accused Senator Ted Cruz of Texas of stealing the contest, alleged fraud, demanded that Iowa Republicans annul the results and called for to a repetition.

While Iowa has a history of problems with caucus results, there is no evidence of fraud. In fact, the 2016 Republican elections were the only ones since 2008 that went off without a hitch.

And yet, if Monday night ends with Trump underperforming, both his history and his rhetoric during this year's campaign suggest he won't hesitate to cry foul and refuse to accept the outcome.

Mr. Trump has already accused Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida of “try to rigthe caucuses. Laura Loomer, a far-right and anti-Muslim activist whom Trump considered hiring for a campaign post last year, suggested on social media that “the deep state” engaged in “weather manipulation” to cause the Friday snowstorm and subzero temperatures in Iowa . to suppress Trump's turnout on Monday. And Donald Trump Jr. suggested in a Telegram video that “we cannot take anything for granted, or assume that everything is on the rise. We've seen this rodeo before.'

These claims are unlikely to gain much support from Iowa Republicans and the party volunteers who will operate the state's 1,657 caucus locations.

“If Trump says it's fraud, he's full of nonsense,” said AJ Spiker, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa who is backing Mr. DeSantis.

Still, Republicans in Iowa are trying to protect themselves from campaigns alleging foul play during the caucuses.

At each location, caucusgoers write down their presidential preferences on paper slips. Those slips are then counted in full view of anyone who wants to watch. Typically, a representative from each campaign looks at the count and recording is allowed.

“It's the most transparent vote you can do,” Mr. Spiker said.

Mr. Trump's preemptive fraud claims in Iowa last month followed a blunder by Mr. DeSantis' wife, Casey DeSantis. She called on her supporters to “descend to the state of Iowa to be part of the caucus.”

“You don't have to be an Iowa resident to participate in the caucus,” she said.

That earned Ms. DeSantis a rebuke from the Republican Party.

Only Iowans can participate in the caucuses. Republican volunteers are supposed to check for photo ID at caucus locations. Yet Mr. Trump's campaign suggested at the time that the DeSantis campaign had confessed to a “plot to manipulate the caucus through fraud.”

Another candidate who has engaged in conspiracies and sowed doubt about the Iowa caucuses is Vivek Ramaswamy, who failed to qualify for recent debates.

“The mainstream media is trying to manipulate the Republican caucus in Iowa in favor of the corporate candidates they can control,” said Mr Ramaswamy in a campaign video this week. 'Don't fall for their trick. They don't want you to hear about the truth from me.'

Voting rights groups and disinformation experts say the preemptive cries about fraud and rigged elections have become something of a new normal.

“This follows the general playbook, the election denial playbook of preemptively laying the groundwork for claims of fraud in the event of a loss,” said Emma Steiner, the Information Accountability Project Manager at Common Cause, a left-wing voting rights organization. organization. “It's a kind of future-proofing.”

Trump has long made baseless claims of fraud or manipulation before the elections. In 2016, weeks before Election Day, Mr. Trump began questioning the veracity of Colorado ballots, citing little evidence. After winning the 2016 election, Mr. Trump claimed that widespread fraud cost him the popular vote (that didn't happen), and he set up a commission to investigate voter fraud in the country (it failed without significant findings).

The Trump team has called the election rigged, even if he doesn't participate. When the 2020 Democratic caucuses fell apart due to a faulty app and a disorganized state party, Trump's campaign wondered whether the results “were rigged against Bernie Sanders.” His sons continued.

“Mark my words, they are rigging this thing,” Eric Trump said wrote on Twitter the night of the 2020 caucuses. “What a mess.”