Iran is trying to avoid war with the US after stoking conflict in the Middle East

Iran's Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting this week amid deep concerns that the United States would retaliate after an Iran-linked militia killed three American soldiers in Iraq and wounded more than 40 others in Jordan.

The council, composed of the president, the secretary of state, the heads of the armed forces and two aides to the country's supreme leader, debated how to respond to a range of possibilities, from a U.S. attack on Iran itself to attacks on the proxy militias Iran supports in the region, according to three Iranians with knowledge of the council's deliberations, who were not authorized to speak publicly.

They passed on the plans developed at Monday's meeting to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the people familiar with the discussion said, and he responded with clear orders: avoid direct war with the United States and distance Iran of the actions of proxies that had killed Americans – but prepare to strike back if the United States were to attack Iran.

For a repressive, deeply unpopular government already struggling with a weak economy, outbursts of mass protest And terrorisma direct conflict with the United States will not only lead to death and destruction in Iran. It could threaten the theocratic regime's grip on power.

On Wednesday, high-level Iranian officials, including the foreign minister and ambassador to the United Nations, publicly proclaimed Mr. Khamenei's position, seeking to reassure Iranians concerned about the prospect of war, and the president's response to temper Biden. , who has promised retribution the next few days.

“Today, in between the words of American officials, we hear some unnecessary threats,” General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said at a conference in Tehran on Wednesday. “We tell them: You tested us on the battlefield and we tested you.”

“We will not leave any threat unanswered,” he added. “While we do not seek war, we neither fear nor run away from war.”

Although Iran said it did not want war, it was preparing for one. It placed all military forces on high alert, activated ground-to-air defense systems and deployed ballistic missiles along the border with Iraq, according to the three Iranians familiar with the planning, a current official and a former official.

Iran has been engaged in a volatile balancing act since October 7, when the war began between one of its allies, the Palestinian group Hamas, and their mutual enemy, Israel. Iran has run multiple fronts against Israel and the United States through the network of allied militias known as the “Axis of Resistance,” from Hezbollah in Lebanon firing rockets at Israel, to Houthis in Yemen firing rockets at ships, to multiple factions attacking the US. bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan.

But Iran has tried to manage these conflicts carefully, applying pressure on opponents without direct confrontation. US and British forces have attacked Houthi bases, and Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon have killed senior Iranian and Hezbollah commanders, but so far the clashes have not reached Iranian territory.

Iran's relationship with its allies was designed to provide the country with plausible deniability. Although Iran leads an overall strategy, the extent to which these groups coordinate their actions and take orders from Iran varies widely: Hezbollah is its closest ally; the Iraqi militias have slightly more autonomy; and the Houthis are an unpredictable wildcard, according to analysts and the Iranians interviewed.

But a war directly involving Iran and the United States seemed just a misstep away, and that misstep might have come when Iraqi militants aligned with Iran carried out last Sunday's deadly drone attack on U.S. forces in Jordan . After more than a hundred such attacks on US bases since October 7, these were the first attacks to kill Americans.

Now Iran is trying to prevent that direct war. Following a visit by General Ismail Ghaani, commander of the Quds Force, Kata'ib Hezbollah, a militia that the Pentagon believes is likely responsible for the drone attack, issued a statement on Tuesday saying it would stop the attacks on US forces. suspend. Iran was not involved in the decision-making, and that Iran sometimes even disapproved of its attacks on Americans.

Iranian commanders abandoned bases in Iraq and Syria that could become U.S. targets, avoiding the kind of high-profile killings that would require a response in Iranian eyes.

And three years after sidelining a former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Mr. Khamenei's circle began regularly consulting him again. Mr. Zarif, considered a moderate, is well known to U.S. officials.

“They appealed to Mr Zarif because he can better analyze the situation for them and explain it to an audience, and at this sensitive time they need top foreign policy experts,” said Sassan Karimi, a political analyst in Tehran who is a fellow lecturer at a university. lesson with Mr. Zarif. “The goal is to get through this serious crisis by any means necessary and in a way that prevents America from attacking Iran.”

Mr. Khameini has told those close to him that he opposes war with the United States because maintaining the Islamic regime's grip on power is the top priority and war would distract the world's attention from the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza , according to a person associated with his circle and a military strategist with ties to the Revolutionary Guards.

War could also have disastrous consequences for ordinary people at home, and Iran is already plagued by international sanctions, unemployment and corruption. Many Iranians do not want war, fearing it would worsen the situation. Over the past two decades, they have seen US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the civil war in Syria, sow chaos and chronic instability.

Nafiseh, a 36-year-old high school teacher in Tehran, said in an interview that she has seen a change in behavior among her students this week. “The students are very afraid of the danger of war. They had all heard the news and reacted much more emotionally,” said Nafiseh, who asked that her last name not be used for fear of retaliation. She said the adults around her clung to the hope that the United States would not attack Iran.

Fears of war have pushed the value of the Iranian rial against the US dollar this week, pushing up the prices of many goods.

For a government that has done that repeatedly resorted to violence crush If the population challenges his rule, conflict risks even more internal unrest. Even among religious conservatives, there are divisions, and there is concern that the country's problems are insurmountable.

“There is not even a glimmer of hope for an improvement in the situation in the Islamic Republic,” Mehdi Nassiri, a conservative cleric who has broken with the government and become an outspoken critic, wrote on social media. “Today is better than tomorrow.”

Mr. Khamenei has been deeply involved in charting Iran's course through this crisis. He has received daily briefings on regional developments from the head of the armed forces and his foreign policy adviser, and gives final approval to all National Security Council decisions, according to three people familiar with the discussions and a State Department official Affairs.

In January, he approved the council's recommendation to start ballistic missiles against what Iran said were terrorist groups' bases in Pakistan and Syria, and against what it called an Israeli operations center in northern Iraq. Pakistan and Iraq, normally friendly to Iran, reacted angrily, and Pakistan attacked what it said were terrorist bases in Iran. Mr Khamenei later advised his commanders to avoid clashes like the one in Pakistan.

Mr. Khamenei, who usually expresses his views publicly on national security issues, is silent on the war chatter this week but remains highly visible. He attended a domestic industry exhibition, met with large groups and visited the graves of senior Quds Force commanders recently killed by Israel in Syria.

“Mr. Khamenei is on top of every turn during this period of heightened tension,” Nasser Imani, a political analyst close to the government, said in an interview. He said Mr. Khamenei's public presence this week was intended to “ to radiate a sense of normality and strength and to show our enemies that he is active and committed.”

President Biden has said he has decided on a response to the deaths of his troops, which could occur any day.

“The dilemma for the Biden administration is trying to bleed Iran's nose without touching it,” said Ali Vaez, the Iranian director of the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization. “The problem is that each side takes revenge on the other, it creates the need for a counter-attack and this vicious cycle continues and at some point it will explode.”

Leily Nikounazar reporting contributed.