The war in Gaza has left a power vacuum and there are few plans to fill it
Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has repeatedly spoken of the need to overthrow Hamas, but he has done little to address the power vacuum that would emerge – especially after Israeli forces withdrew withdrawn.
That is already evident in Gaza City, where a deadly battle at the territory’s largest hospital complex stretched into a third day on Wednesday after the Israeli army said the resurgence of Hamas fighters had forced it to return to the site where it had first been stormed. November.
The army said on Wednesday it had killed dozens of militants during the operation at Al-Shifa hospital and interrogated or arrested hundreds of people, while Hamas said it had caused “deaths and injuries” among Israeli forces; neither account could be independently confirmed. The crossfire endangers displaced people seeking shelter on the site, as well as medical teams, patients and local residents.
Former Israeli security officials are divided over how to tackle the growing anarchy in northern Gaza, but many agree that until the government has a detailed, workable plan for how the enclave will be governed and made secure created, it will be impossible to chart a path towards a more stable future. And they said Mr. Netanyahu should have developed such a plan long ago.
“It is a big mistake” not to have a government plan now, said Gen. Gadi Shamni, a retired commander of the Israeli army’s Gaza division. “It may take months or even years to create a successful alternative, but we need to start moving things in that direction.”
“We will continue to do these back-and-forth operations for much longer than necessary,” he said. “Every time the IDF leaves an area, Hamas will return.”
Mr. Netanyahu proposed a plan last month that called for Israeli security control of Gaza after the war and the “management of civil affairs and maintenance of law and order,” based on unnamed “local stakeholders with administrative experience” and without ties with terrorist groups. such as Hamas, which took control of Gaza in 2007. It seeks the elimination of the United Nations agency, which is a major provider of social services and employment in Gaza, without detailing what, if anything, would fill the slack.
The prime minister’s office said the plan “reflects a broad public consensus on the objectives of the war and on replacing Hamas rule in Gaza with a civilian alternative.”
But many experts said it was vague and an unrealistic attempt to delay serious action.
“Lives have turned into hell,” said Talal Okal, a political analyst from Gaza City who fled northern Gaza in October and is now in the United Arab Emirates. “Netanyahu and his partners do not want to answer the question of the day after the war.”
Mr Netanyahu has roundly rejected calls from the Biden administration and others for an overhauled Palestinian Authority – which now has limited governing powers in the West Bank – to also govern Gaza. Many of his allies oppose unified control of the two areas as a step toward a Palestinian state.
Yet there are no easy options for governing Gaza, Israeli security analysts say. Many Palestinians view the Palestinian Authority as tainted by corruption and mismanagement, and many Israelis also distrust it.
Some Israeli military officials and politicians have called on Israel to occupy Gaza after the war, at least temporarily, but this has been widely opposed by the international community. It would impose enormous restrictions on Palestinian freedoms and drain Israel’s resources. How Hamas and other factions would confront an occupation would also pose a challenge.
Other former Israeli officials say Mr Netanyahu must now introduce a governing body in areas where the army has withdrawn, to prevent Hamas from rebuilding itself and to prevent chaos from spreading. They argue that Israeli forces would most likely have to continue returning to parts of Gaza, as they did at Al-Shifa, and that without a more comprehensive plan they would have to continue fighting a prolonged war of attrition.
General Shamni said Netanyahu’s position so far reflects the fact that his government is dependent on hardline coalition partners who fiercely oppose Palestinian statehood.
“The most important thing for him is his political survival,” General Shamni said.
Other retired Israeli officials have argued that the Palestinian Authority is too weak to govern Gaza, but they agree that the status quo of leaving areas unmanaged is unsustainable. Instead, Israel should first fully occupy Gaza and then try to introduce an alternative governing body, they argue.
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, said the attack on Al-Shifa this week showed the need for a greater Israeli security presence in the north.
“People ask: haven’t we already cleaned Shifa? We didn’t do that at all,” Mr. Milshtein said. “If you don’t stay there within five minutes, they will come back,” he said, referring to Hamas.
The Gaza Health Ministry has condemned the Israeli raid as a “crime against health institutions,” and humanitarian organizations expressed concern about the situation in the complex, which, along with its surroundings, housed thousands of people.
Full occupation of Gaza would require Israel to increase its military forces there and devote more resources to providing services to the Palestinians. At the same time, the army is clashing with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon, and the mobilization of reservists has put pressure on the Israeli economy.
Occupation would also run counter to international calls for Israel, including from President Biden, not to take such action.
For the Palestinians, this would mean that the Israeli army would retain full control over the cities and entrances and exits of Gaza.
Hamas would likely suffer under such a scenario, with less room to maneuver as Israeli soldiers could more easily suppress the group, but it is not clear exactly how Hamas and other groups would respond. Decades of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories have not eliminated the armed militant groups that oppose its presence.
With experts warning of a looming famine in Gaza, longstanding debates over post-war governance are coming at the expense of Gazans, said Mr. Okal, the Gaza City-based political analyst.
“Complete chaos has ensued and the people are paying the price,” he said. “But what can they do? All they can do is raise their hands and pray to God.”