As the Gaza war continues, Israel prepares for a protracted conflict

As the war in Gaza continues, the situation in the battered enclave is one of devastation and despair. More than 29,000 people have been killed, most of them in a brutal Israeli bombing campaign, according to health officials in Gaza. Neighborhoods have been razed to the ground, families have been wiped out, children have been orphaned and… an estimated 1.7 million people displaced.

As global scrutiny of Israeli behavior in the war grows, the Israeli military has, in its view, dealt a major blow to Hamas’s capabilities, killing commanders, destroying tunnels and seizing weapons. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of destroying Hamas remains elusive, according to current and former Israeli security officials.

They expect a long campaign to defeat Hamas.

An Israeli military intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity as per military protocol, said Israel was engaged in a comprehensive mission to unravel Hamas’ military capabilities.

“Is it possible that this mission will be left to my children?” he said. “The answer is yes.”

U.S. officials say they believe Hamas is being constrained by Israeli operations, but that Israel will not be able to achieve its goal of eliminating the group’s military capabilities in the near future. The officials requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.

Israel launched its attack on Gaza after a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, in which an estimated 1,400 people were killed or taken hostage.

Since then, Israel claims it has killed more than 1,000 people 10,000 militants, but it has not explained how it calculates this number and analysts say it is difficult to get a precise figure in the chaos of war. Israeli officials say the army has dismantled the command structure of 18 of Hamas’ 24 Gaza battalions, killing commanders, deputy commanders and other officers, effectively rendering the units ineffective.

But according to former and current security officials, thousands of Hamas fighters remain, attached to the remaining battalions or operating independently, above and below ground.

Hamas has revealed little about its own losses, although it has publicly mourned the deaths of at least two senior commanders, Ayman Nofal and Ahmad al-Ghandour. The group regularly issues statements saying it has struck Israeli soldiers in the enclave.

“The resistance is still capable of hurting the enemy,” said Youssef Hamdan, Hamas’s representative in Algeria. said this month.

During the latest fighting in Gaza, Israeli analysts say, Hamas has avoided direct confrontations with Israeli units, which Israel has cited as a sign of weakness.

But other experts say Hamas has a reason for the strategy. According to the Western officials, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, the Hamas leadership believes that if a meaningful portion of its military strength survives the war, it will be a victory.

Mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the United States have met to try to broker a ceasefire. But Israel has shown no signs of softening and has continued in three different combat zones.

North Gaza

When the Israeli army’s 401st Brigade invaded Gaza in late October, it took an entire week of intense firefights to reach the northwestern tip of Gaza City, according to military officials. About three weeks ago the brigade did it in two hours.

That contrast reflected the blow the army had dealt to Hamas’s military capabilities in the north by dismantling its command structure, the former and current security officials said. Groups of Hamas fighters in the region were now operating in isolation, without support from the broader military wing, the military intelligence official said.

But the fact that Israeli soldiers returned after withdrawing weeks earlier also indicated that Hamas was still active there. The Israeli military believes at least 5,000 militants remain in the north, the intelligence officer said.

That would represent a small but formidable force capable of launching missiles at Israel and attacking ground forces, Israeli military officials said.

“Hamas has not yet been completely defeated in northern Gaza,” said Colonel Nochi Mandel, the chief of staff of the Nahal Brigade, which operates in the north. “We have done a lot of work, but there is still more to do.”

The army returned this month to the Al-Shifa hospital area, the scene of heavy fighting in November, to fight militants who were regrouping in the area, he said, and would return to other parts of the country in the coming weeks north. However, Colonel Mandel emphasized that the army no longer faced strong resistance.

For the estimated 300,000 Palestinian civilians believed to remain in the north, the attacks have been sudden and unpredictable, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. It has made it difficult to navigate the area, where food has become scarce and lawlessness is widespread, residents say.

Yahya al-Masri, a doctor at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital, said he had to walk an extra two kilometers to work last week when clashes broke out between his home and the hospital. “You try to avoid the fighting, but there is no sense of security,” says 28-year-old Masri.

Current and former Israeli officials said Israeli forces will most likely continue attacking northern Gaza to contain the Hamas insurgency for the foreseeable future, at least until some sort of political settlement for post-war Gaza is reached.

Khan Younis

Since the collapse of a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in early December, Israeli forces have advanced through the southern city of Khan Younis – west towards the Mediterranean. Israeli military officials have said the city has been one of the main centers of Hamas military activity.

Israeli forces are targeting Hamas’ extensive underground tunnel network in and around the city, the intelligence official said. The official added that many important underground command centers had been destroyed, but most of the tunnel network remained intact.

Hamas fighters have conspicuously avoided confrontations with the army in Khan Younis, hoping to outlast their opponents in the safety of their underground hideouts, military analysts said.

“The military is very aggressive there without facing much competition from the other side,” said Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst for the Haaretz newspaper.

Over the past month, Israeli forces have concentrated on the western edge of Khan Younis, home to two major medical complexes – the Al-Amal and the Nasser Medical Center – to target what officials call the last strongholds of organized Hamas resistance mentioned in the area.

Israeli forces stormed Nasser’s hospital on Thursday and the army arrested hundreds of people they said were linked to Hamas and other militant groups. Many Palestinians hiding in the complex fled to Rafah.

Ahmed Moghrabi, a surgeon to Nasser, described joining the refugees as Israeli drones overhead called for the remaining displaced Palestinians to evacuate the hospital. As he left Khan Younis, he said he saw the devastated city outside the hospital walls for the first time in almost a month.

“No more buildings. No more streets. Bodies rotting,” he said. “I can’t stop crying.”

Rafa

Israeli leaders have said Israeli forces would eventually enter Rafah, the southernmost city on the border with Egypt, to fight four Hamas battalions they say are stationed there. The Israeli military says about 10,000 Hamas fighters remain in the area.

But it is an operation that could potentially cause major civilian casualties. According to the United Nations, about a million people are said to be taking shelter in the city.

As they await an expected Israeli invasion, Palestinians huddled in tents, apartments and schools in Rafah are overcome by uncertainty and exhaustion amid widespread hunger. Israel has said there was no gun battle at the hospital, but there was extensive fighting around it.

“You are terrified all day and night,” said Sobhi al-Khazendar, 30, a lawyer sheltering in Rafah. “Everything is so confusing. You don’t know what to do, whether to stay put or find another place to go.

Mr Netanyahu has pledged to evacuate civilians from combat zones there, but his words appear to have done little to assuage mounting criticism from the United Nations and the Biden administration of an operation targeting Rafah.

Israeli officials say a Rafah operation is essential to root out remaining Hamas forces and destroy tunnels between Egypt and Gaza used to import weapons.

The Israeli military has already drawn up several plans for a ground operation in Rafah, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the army’s chief of staff, told reporters last week. The timing of the operation requires a decision by the country’s civilian leaders, he said.

In recent days, disagreement has arisen within Israel’s war cabinet over when a Rafah operation should begin, said an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details.

Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who joined the Israeli cabinet from the opposition after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, both supported striking a deal to free all hostages held by militants in Gaza before a operation, the official said.

The official said Netanyahu and Ron Dermer, his closest ally in the five-member cabinet, wanted to invade Rafah before reaching a deal to release hostages. The prime minister’s office declined to comment on whether there was disagreement over Rafah in the cabinet.

Julian E Barnes contributed reporting from washington and Iyad Abuheweila from Istanbul.