Israelis are angry with Netanyahu, but the chances of his ouster are slim

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has weathered many controversies, including accusations of corruption and accusations this year that a controversial overhaul of the country’s judiciary was a thinly veiled power grab.

But he is now facing the biggest crisis of his political career. Backlash over his government’s failure to prevent the October 7 Hamas-led terrorist attack that killed 1,200 people and took more than 240 hostage, and criticism of his handling of the war in Gaza, is steadily mounting.

People within Netanyahu’s government and those hoping to see him replaced agree that his standing has never been lower among the Israeli public.

And yet – due to the complexity of Israel’s parliamentary system and the vagaries of war – there are few avenues for Netanyahu to be removed from office anytime soon. However, his long-term political prospects and legacy largely depend on how he handles the coming days, analysts said.

In recent days and weeks, vigils for slain Israelis have turned into protests against Netanyahu’s leadership. Calls for him to take responsibility for the intelligence failures that preceded the Hamas attack have turned into a campaign demanding his resignation.

A far-right member of his governing coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has threatened to overthrow the government. Members of Netanyahu’s own Likud party have discussed defecting, according to two senior party figures. And the United States, Israel’s closest and most important ally, has begun pushing the prime minister to limit civilian deaths in Gaza.

With the war entering a new phase on Friday following the collapse of a seven-day truce and the start of a renewed Israeli air campaign, Mr Netanyahu is looking for a solution – including the possible assassination of Hamas’s top leader in Gaza – that will appease his coalition , to silence his critics and appease a population desperate for him to both bring home the remaining Gaza hostages and defeat Hamas.

In a statement to reporters on Friday, Mr. Netanyahu said he was committed to “destroying Hamas.” Privately, he has told aides that he is urging the military to kill the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, according to a current Israeli official and a former official who spoke with the prime minister in recent days.

Mr. Netanyahu believes, the officials said, that the killing of Mr. Sinwar, the suspected mastermind of the October 7 attacks, would be enough to convince the Israeli public that a major victory has been won over Hamas and that the war can end.

Israeli political analysts said Mr. Sinwar’s death could, but could not stem, the tide of public anger against Netanyahu.

“If the Israeli army were to succeed in killing a key Hamas figure, I expect Netanyahu to take credit,” said Anshel Pfeffer, a columnist for the Haaretz newspaper and author of “Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu .”

Mr. Pfeffer added that despite the many past scandals that have rocked Mr. Netanyahu’s reputation, he has always managed to save his political skin.

For much of the past year, hundreds of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets to protest the prime minister’s plans for a judicial overhaul. Many Israelis see the changes in connection with Mr Netanyahu’s ongoing trial on corruption charges, although he has denied any link between the two.

In a September 7 poll by KAN, Israel’s public broadcaster, 75 percent of respondents said they believed Netanyahu’s government was “functioning well.”

But in the weeks since the war began, Mr Netanyahu’s numbers have steadily fallen. In a poll published Friday by the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, 30 percent of respondents said Netanyahu was best suited to serve as prime minister, while 49 percent favored his biggest political rival, Benny Gantz, a former Minister of Defence.

The same poll showed that support for Likud had also fallen.

In Israel, governments are formed through a multi-party system, under which the party can muster a majority of at least 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament.

Netanyahu’s coalition currently has 74 seats. To overthrow him, at least 13 MPs would have to leave his coalition or face a vote of no confidence in the legislature, selecting another candidate to replace Mr Netanyahu.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former political adviser to Netanyahu, said neither scenario was likely.

“Almost everyone you speak to today will tell you the same thing – that Netanyahu must resign – he cannot continue to lead this country,” Mr Bushinsky said. “And yet at the same time there is a very real scenario in which he remains prime minister despite his unpopularity because it is difficult to replace or dismiss him.”

Mr. Bushinsky said some members of Netanyahu’s Likud party had discussed splitting their own party, but that they were unlikely to do so in the middle of a war.

“People are only going to strike when the iron is hot,” Bushinsky said. “It’s not just about them leaving Likud; what matters is that they can put together their own coalition of 61 people who will support them. I just don’t see such a political constellation that will work.”

Israeli political sentiment, he added, has shifted to the right since October 7. Any future elections, he predicted, could only be won by a right-wing candidate seen as a strong military leader.

Many of the Israelis who gathered in Tel Aviv’s so-called Hostages Square on Friday afternoon agreed with Mr. Bushinsky. The large area outside the Tel Aviv Art Museum has regularly become a site of protest, mourning and celebration for the families of those kidnapped from Israel and brought to Gaza on October 7.

On Thursday, Moran Gal, 24, and her boyfriend came to the square to cheer and celebrate the return of eight Israeli hostages. But on Friday, as the ceasefire ended and reports trickled out that some of the oldest hostages held by Hamas had been killed, Ms. Gal had tears on her face.

“This is all Bibi’s fault,” said Ms. Gal, a student, using Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname. ‘Why hasn’t he apologized? How come he hasn’t admitted to abandoning us?’

In Jerusalem, where protests have been held almost daily in front of Parliament calling for Netanyahu’s resignation, hundreds of people gathered Thursday evening to listen to Eran Litman, whose daughter was murdered on October 7.

Mr. Litman accused the Israeli prime minister of failing to protect his daughter and returning to the war in Gaza instead of saving the lives of more Israeli hostages.

“He only thinks about himself, not about his country,” Mr. Litman said.

“Too bad,” a crowd of hundreds of people thundered whenever he mentioned Mr. Netanyahu’s name.