Mayor Adams’ swagger has diminished. His enemies are ready to strike

If Mayor Eric Adams was looking for evidence that his recent spate of troubles had cost him some respect in New York, he didn’t have to look far.

City Comptroller Brad Lander recently limited the mayor’s spending powers over the migrant crisis and playfully alluded to the FBI’s investigation into Mr. Adams’ fundraising in his own pitch to donors.

The City Council is preparing for a battle with the mayor over his painful cuts to city services and could soon override his objection to the ban on solitary confinement in city jails. Even his friend, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, is keeping an eye on his job.

There are plenty of reasons for the dissatisfaction surrounding Mr. Adams. He is facing a federal investigation into his campaign fundraising and widespread criticism over his handling of the migrant crisis. He was named in a legal claim accusing him of sexual assault in 1993 and made unpopular cuts to the police, schools and libraries.

The extent of his unpopularity was quantified this week in a stunning Quinnipiac University poll: Just 28 percent of New Yorkers approve of the job Mr. Adams is doing, the lowest for any New York City mayor in a Quinnipiac poll since the investigation into the city began. in 1996.

Mr. Adams has not been accused of wrongdoing in the FBI investigation, and he is hardly the first mayor to face an investigation: His predecessor, Bill de Blasio, also faced an investigation into his campaign finances. But the political world continues to buzz about his future, especially after the FBI seized his cellphones on the street.

One political consulting firm was so curious about how far the mayor’s star had fallen that it did commissioned its own opinion poll to ask New Yorkers who they would support in a special election if Mr. Adams were to resign.

“We are in a period of tremendous political uncertainty,” said Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner of Slingshot Strategies. He added: “A special election is far from certain, but it is clearly a possibility.”

The poll showed Cuomo would be the most popular candidate at 22 percent, followed by the city’s public advocate, Jumaane Williams, at 15 percent. Kathryn Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner who finished second in the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary, came in third with 12 percent.

Mr. Adams, known for his swagger, appeared chastened in recent weeks and appeared to be on the defensive.

His aides immediately responded to the Quinnipiac poll by calling it “misleading” and sending a flood of book-length hosannas of the mayor — some with nearly identical wording — from loyalists like Rep. Adriano Espaillat, a major Dominican American power broker, and Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar.

Rob Speyer, the CEO of the real estate investment firm Tishman Speyer, praised Mr. Adams’ “hustle and successes.” Steven Rubenstein, president of the Association for a Better New York, called the mayor a “champion for all New Yorkers.” The mayor’s loyalists also included other business and labor leaders, a signal to potential challengers that the mayor still enjoys broad support from some of the city’s most influential constituencies.

At a recent town hall meeting in East Harlem, Mr. Adams discussed his weaknesses head-on. He began the event by discussing “two difficult issues you have read about” and told the crowd that he had not broken the law by helping the Turkish consulate and that he had not sexually assaulted a woman who had filed a legal claim against him had abused. for an incident she said occurred in 1993.

“You know my character,” he said. “You know what I stand for.”

In most New York mayoral election cycles, Democratic incumbents are virtually untouchable. But amid Mr. Adams’ troubles, more Democrats are weighing potential candidacies — either if Mr. Adams is re-elected in 2025, or in the event of a special election if he were to resign or be forced out of office.

A former Adams donor, Jean Shafiroff, the wife of a prominent banker, said she was waiting to see what happens with the FBI investigation and sexual abuse allegation before participating in any more fundraising. She said she was concerned with women’s rights issues and felt conflicted.

“It’s difficult for me right now, even though I believe the mayor is innocent,” she said in a telephone interview Friday from Miami, where she was attending the Art Basel art event.

Mr. Cuomo has been talking to people under the right circumstances about his possible run for mayor, according to three people who spoke with him and were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

Mr. Cuomo’s allies have insisted that the former governor, who resigned in 2021 after facing a series of sexual harassment allegations, would only consider running for mayor if Mr. Adams is no longer in office race was.

“He’s not going to run against the mayor,” Charlie King, a Democratic strategist close to Cuomo, said in an interview.

Matt Wing, a former adviser to Ms. Garcia, indicated she might be open to running for office, saying in a statement: “In the chaos of a special election, New York City will need stability over political spectacle. And there is only one leader in the potential field who is ready to meet the moment with competence, character and deep-rooted experience in city management, and that is perhaps why Kathryn stands out.”

Scott Stringer, a former city comptroller whose 2021 bid for mayor was derailed by allegations of sexual misconduct, has held talks with former staffers about quick steps to run for office in a special election, according to a person familiar with the matter.

When Mr. Adams took office two years ago, he was heralded as a national Democratic star and a moderate who made a compelling case for improving public safety. He called himself the “Biden of Brooklyn.”

President Biden, who once considered the mayor a trusted ally, has not spoken to Mr. Adams in months, and his aides and allies now view the mayor as a grand opportunist for publicly criticizing the White House for not providing enough aid to the city to tackle the migrant crisis.

Now the mayor is confronted with questions its management capabilitieseven his agenda seems more uncertain.

On Monday, City Council leaders will hold an oversight hearing to scrutinize the mayor’s cuts to the police, schools and libraries. They hope to reverse some of the cuts and find ways to generate additional revenue.

Progressive leaders say the mayor’s low approval rating shows his cuts are unpopular, and they hope to take advantage of his weakened political position by raising taxes on the wealthy.

“What we hear from this poll is that New Yorkers are asking elected officials to invest in a progressive agenda — affordable housing, schools, sanitation, libraries,” said Ana María Archila, state director of the Working Families Party, who has held conversations with left-wing candidates on the fight against Mr Adams.

Later this month, the mayor could face a battle with the City Council over solitary confinement in city jails. Mr. Adams did that threatened to veto a ban, arguing that doing so would endanger corrections officers. But Mr. Williams and City Council leaders have introduced a bill, saying the practice is torture.

The City Council could vote on the ban at its Dec. 20 meeting and likely has enough votes to override a veto, should the mayor choose to do so. Mr. Adams’ first major veto in June — aimed at blocking a housing bill that expanded a rental voucher program — was overridden by the Council.

That expansion of rental vouchers is nearing a Jan. 9 deadline for implementation, and City Council leaders are considering filing charges against the Adams administration because they believe it is deliberately not moving forward with the plan, Council officials said.

Diana Ayala, the deputy speaker of the city council who is considering a run for mayor, said Mr. Adams had undermined the council and refused to work with leadership to address the city’s many crises.

“He’s arrogant, and that arrogance doesn’t help,” she said.

Shahana Hanif, chair of the Council’s progressive caucus, said Council members felt more comfortable challenging the mayor given his problems.

“These incidents embolden our colleagues to feel that this is a mayor who is not taking his campaign, his personal life and the interests of the city to heart,” Ms. Hanif said. “He’s a mess.”