McCarthy’s departure could cause even more headaches for the small Republican majority

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s announcement that he would leave Congress was no surprise to his closest colleagues, but his decision to do so a year before the end of his term poses challenges for his party. It will reduce Republicans’ already razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, as they face a number of issues in the coming months that will require near-unanimous party support.

The departure of Mr. McCarthy, his party’s strongest fundraiser in the House of Representatives and who helped build the Republican majority for two election cycles, could also put a dent in the GOP’s ability to raise campaign money , although he has said he wants to continue playing a role in politics.

Here’s how Mr. McCarthy’s departure could impact the House of Representatives and his party.

A small majority will become even slimmer.

Republicans entered the year realizing that one of their biggest challenges would be keeping their party united as their midterm victories delivered a slim majority. They had 222 members, while Democrats had 213, leaving little room for defectors and making it easier for a small number of disaffected Republicans to influence policy and influence voting outcomes.

They could afford to lose more than four votes on any bill if all the Democrats showed up and voted against it. Any more than that would doom the GOP legislation.

With the expulsion last week of former Rep. George Santos of New York, Republicans now have just 221 members, meaning their four-vote margin has shrunk to three. Any more defections would result in a 217-217 tie, or give the Democratic side more votes than the Republican.

With McCarthy gone, Republicans will enter the new year with 220 votes, leaving them with the same margin because they could still lose three votes and be ahead of Democrats, 217 to 216.

A special election for Santos’ seat is scheduled for Feb. 13, and Democrats hope to recapture the politically competitive district that President Biden won in 2020. That would further erode the Republicans’ lead.

A winter break showdown could become even more unmanageable.

Governor Gavin Newsom of California has 14 days after Mr McCarthy’s last day to call a special election, which would take place about four months later. The Bakersfield-anchored district is solidly Republican, meaning a Republican candidate will likely win the race to serve out the remainder of his term. But that won’t happen until mid-January, when lawmakers face the first of two government funding deadlines.

Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, has struggled to push critical legislation through the House of Representatives, and a smaller majority would likely allow his party’s insurgent far-right wing to double down on its policy demands ahead of deadlines. is early February.

The smaller majority could also influence the fight for an emergency national security spending bill to finance the war in Ukraine, along with aid to Israel in its war against Hamas and border security funding.

On Wednesday, Republicans blocked the measure in the Senate. The bill would face an uphill battle in the House of Representatives, where Republican support for Ukraine’s war effort is waning.

Republicans will lose their best fundraiser in the House.

For years, Mr. McCarthy has traveled to hundreds of districts across the country, raising millions of dollars in campaign money for candidates and helping Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in 2022. He has said he plans to remain involved in Republican politics.

“I will continue to recruit our country’s best and brightest to run for elected office,” McCarthy said in announcing his plans to leave the House of Representatives. in The Wall Street Journal. “The Republican Party is expanding every day and I am committed to using my experience to support the next generation of leaders.”

During his time as speaker, Mr. McCarthy raised $78 million for his colleagues’ reelection efforts, more than 100 times the amount Mr. Johnson had raised before becoming speaker.

His support of new candidates will be bolstered by a campaign account with more than $10 million at his disposal. Even after leaving office, Mr. McCarthy may use campaign funds to create a political action committee or directly support other campaigns. He has indicated he would like to play a substantial role, and many lawmakers and aides believe he could intervene in the party primaries to target the far-right Republicans who led the charge to oust him from the presidency.

Republicans are holding their breath for more exits.

More than three dozen incumbents from both parties in both chambers have said they will not seek re-election. If a handful more Republicans leave the House of Representatives in the coming months, it could wipe out their majority before a single vote is cast in the 2024 elections. Another Republican, Rep. Bill Johnson of Ohio, has announced that he that will do leaves Congress in a few months to become president of Youngstown State University, although he did not say exactly when.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia and one of McCarthy’s strongest allies, expressed her frustration over the eroding majority in a post on social mediasaying, “Hopefully no one dies.”