A Palestinian exile defends an Arab vision for Gaza

As the war rages in Gaza and civilian deaths rise, few Arab leaders have publicly expressed their views on the future of the battered enclave, fearing they will be accused of supporting Israel's actions.

But an influential Palestinian exile, in an interview with The New York Times, provided public insight into the types of post-war plans that Arab leaders discuss privately.

Mohammed Dahlan, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, outlined a situation in which Israel and Hamas would hand over power to a new and independent Palestinian leader who could rebuild Gaza under the protection of an Arab peacekeeping force.

While such plans face significant challenges, the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are open to supporting processes that are part of the effort toward a Palestinian state, said Mr. Dahlan, who also has close ties has met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el. -Sisi.

Officials from six Arab governments met in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss the future of Gaza and the need for a ceasefire, according to two Palestinian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Under the plan outlined by Mr Dahlan and privately reiterated by Arab countries, a new Palestinian leader would take responsibility for Gaza and the parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank currently administered by the Palestinian Authority. That leader would replace Mahmoud Abbas, the authority's 88-year-old president, who would retain a ceremonial role, Mr. Dahlan said.

“No Abbas, no Hamas,” said Mr. Dahlan, who has long been at odds with Mr. Abbas. “New people in charge of the Palestinian Authority.”

For years, Mr. Dahlan was isolated from the Palestinian political scene and criticized by many power players.

He was Mr Abbas' national security adviser when Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, and had a reputation for brutality that made him unpopular with many Palestinians. His relationship with Mr Abbas deteriorated over the perception that he was trying to succeed him, and he was convicted in absentia of corruption in 2016, on charges he denies.

In the UAE, he built close relationships with members of the royal family, initially reconnecting with Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed, his former counterpart in the Emirates' security establishment. He was also in contact with Sheikh Hazza's brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, who became president in 2022. Mr. Dahlan has since become one of his key advisors.

“He is very much the Emirati president's point of contact on Palestinian policy,” Mouin Rabbani, an expert on Palestinian politics, said of Mr. Dahlan.

Mr. Dahlan still has critics who say he used heavy-handed tactics in Gaza and had a tendency toward self-promotion. But he is a major force in Palestinian politics, analysts say, partly because of his help in sending Emirati funding to Gaza.

He oversees a political party that was seen as a possible kingmaker during the 2021 election campaign in the West Bank and Gaza, before the vote was canceled. He regularly coordinates with other Palestinian opposition leaders in a loose network that seeks to dethrone Mr. Abbas.

“He is a prominent Palestinian politician with a wide support network in Gaza,” said Jehad Harb, an analyst based in Ramallah, in the West Bank. “The millions that the Emirates have channeled to Gaza through him have only strengthened his position there.”

Mr. Dahlan has also built close ties with top Hamas officials in recent years, said Ghaith al-Omari, an analyst of Palestinian affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

In the interview, Dahlan, 62, said a new Palestinian government could invite friendly Arab states to send troops to help maintain order in Gaza. And countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be willing to help – and finance reconstruction – if Israel agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state, he said.

“If there is a two-state solution, the answer is a resounding yes,” Mr Dahlan said.

“The main Arab countries are very keen to resolve this conflict,” he added. “Not the war, the entire conflict.”

Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined to comment on the plan described by Mr Dahlan. A UAE statement did not directly address the plan, but said: “Our contribution to any reconstruction effort in Gaza will be conditional” on commitments to achieving “a two-state solution.”

Informed of the plan Mr Dahlan described, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, said it was “in line with what we know about what we call 'the day after'” the war, referring to what he had heard about discussions between Arab leaders.

The plan faces significant hurdles. The Palestinian Authority and Mr Abbas have resisted changes to the organization, which remains mired in corruption and widely seen as authoritarian.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to maintain “overall security control” over Gaza and the West Bank, rejecting a fully sovereign Palestinian state. Netanyahu's political base is also pushing to resettle Israeli citizens in Gaza once the war is over.

Any proposal would also require buy-in from Hamas, which still controls part of southern Gaza.

The situation in Gaza is dire: an estimated 28,000 people have been killed; according to the United Nations, most buildings have been damaged or destroyed; and most of its 2.2 million residents have fled their homes.

Mr Dahlan said some of his family had been killed in Gaza and many of their homes had been destroyed.

Mr. Dahlan grew up in southern Gaza, in the same town as Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who oversaw the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Mr. Dahlan joined Fatah, Hamas's secular rival, and rose to become the Palestinian Authority's security chief in Gaza. He traveled outside Gaza when Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, stripping him of power and forcing him to flee to the West Bank. Four years later, Mr. Dahlan fell out with Mr. Abbas. After being expelled from Fatah and Palestinian security forces raiding his home in Ramallah, he fled.

In exile, Mr Dahlan acquired power, wealth and influence through his close friendship with the President of the Emirates, whom he represents as an envoy throughout the region.

The signs of his comfortable position in Abu Dhabi became clear during the interview, which took place on the grounds of a palace owned by the Emirati royal family. Outside his office sat a chrome Bentley; his sitting room contained at least twelve large sofas.

Although Mr. Dahlan was once seen by some Israelis as a potential partner, he showed little sympathy for Israeli concerns in the interview. He rejected the idea that he would try to convince Israelis of the need for a Palestinian state. “It is not my job to convince the Israelis,” he said. “Let them go to hell.”

Mr. Dahlan said he was working to convince Hamas to cede power to a new Palestinian leadership, hinting that the group could be convinced to give up control as part of a broader package that created a Palestinian state.

For a decade, Mr. Dahlan was widely seen as a possible successor to Mr. Abbas. But in the interview he said he was not interested in taking on a formal leadership role.

Mr Dahlan is unlikely to be in a hurry to leave the UAE to lead a complex reconstruction process in a vindictive political system, Mr Omari said. Yet he has spent significant time and money cultivating networks in the West Bank and Gaza, suggesting he has long-term political aspirations, Mr. Omari said.

“He is not someone who left Palestine,” he said.

Like other senior Palestinian politicians, Mr. Dahlan shied away from condemning the Hamas-led attack, which Israeli officials said killed about 1,200 people.

But he criticized Hamas leaders for claiming that Gazans were willing to pay the price for the group's actions.

“Trusting people who are suffering is not leadership,” he said. “The Palestinian people want to live.”