A NATO summit is imminent, but Sweden cannot participate yet
For months, NATO leaders had hoped that when they meet for their annual summit next week, they could take the opportunity to welcome Sweden as the newest member of the alliance.
Now that outcome seems all but impossible, as Hungary’s delay and ongoing objections from Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have delayed the process, raising questions about when Sweden might join and what kind of breakthrough might be needed.
All 31 member states must agree to admit new members, and the split over Sweden threatens to erode the alliance’s ability to mount a united front against Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin as his forces attempt a Ukrainian counter-offensive to strike back.
NATO officials say the hope is that all alliance leaders agree on the two-day summit starting Tuesday in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, to admit Sweden. Then, the thinking goes, Mr Erdogan and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary can push approval through their respective parliaments.
To that end, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet senior foreign, defense and intelligence officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland in Brussels on Thursday in an attempt to convince the Turks that Sweden, like Finland, has done enough to Turkish objections.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told reporters on Tuesday that he was in contact with his Turkish counterpart and that Hungary would not impede the process if Turkey’s position changed.
Then the ball is in Mr. Erdogan’s court, and if next week’s summit ends without agreement, it’s unclear what would break the deadlock, or when. NATO officials worry that Sweden’s membership could then linger for many months, a symbolic victory for Putin and a loss for the alliance.
At the same time, Mr. Stoltenberg stated in an interview that Sweden is already involved in all NATO meetings and in defense planning and military exercises. But Sweden would remain out of NATO’s commitment to collective defense, a core goal of the alliance.
“If no agreement is reached in Vilnius, we will have a crisis in NATO, period,” said Marc Pierini, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and former European Union ambassador to Turkey.
President Biden met with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden in Washington on Wednesday to reiterate US support for Sweden’s membership in the alliance. Mr Biden said he is “anxiously looking forward” to that day, but admitted the decision is in the hands of Mr Erdogan.
“I want to reiterate that the United States fully, fully and completely supports Sweden’s membership in NATO,” Biden said. “The bottom line is simple: Sweden is going to make our alliance stronger.”
In the 14 months since Sweden applied to join the alliance, the question of its rise has become entangled in a complex web of issues, including international arms deals and competing views on terrorism and freedom of expression.
Turkey has accused Sweden of providing a free working environment for Turkish dissidents whom Turkey considers to be terrorists. These include members of a religious movement that Turkey has accused of attempting to overthrow Mr Erdogan in 2016 and supporters of a Kurdish militant organization that has fought a bloody uprising against the Turkish state.
Sweden has sought to comply with Turkish demands by amending its constitution and strengthening its anti-terrorism laws, which only came into effect on June 1. The country has also agreed to extradite a small number of people wanted by the Turks.
Last month, Sweden’s Supreme Court ruled that Sweden could extradite a Turkish man wanted in Turkey for drug offenses. The man, who has not been identified, told the court he was targeted because he supported a pro-Kurdish political party.
But Swedish courts have blocked at least one other extradition, saying a journalist wanted by Turkey has committed no crimes in Sweden.
“If you look at Turkey, of course, the goal has been and has been for over a year now to get as many concessions as possible from Sweden before agreeing to join,” Mr Pierini said. “If you look at Sweden’s perspective, they are trying to protect their conception of the rule of law.”
Mr Stoltenberg and other NATO leaders have said Sweden has done enough and should be allowed to join the alliance. Many analysts also suspected that Erdogan’s hard line on Sweden was designed to win over nationalist voters ahead of Turkey’s presidential election in May, in which Erdogan won a third term.
But Erdogan’s stance has not changed since the election, and he again lashed out at Sweden after a protester publicly burned a Koran last week at a demonstration in Sweden’s capital Stockholm, accusing Sweden of failing to combat Islamophobia. The act appeared to derail NATO talks and was carried out in front of a large mosque on one of Islam’s most important holidays.
“We have clearly stated that our red line is to resolutely combat terrorist organizations and Islamophobia,” Erdogan said after a meeting with his cabinet on Monday. “The sooner our counterparts embrace this reality, the healthier this process will be.”
The incident frustrated NATO officials, who noted that combating Islamophobia was not among the issues the sides had agreed to work on to facilitate Sweden’s bid to join. And the Swedes pointed out that the police had tried to ban the protest, but were rejected by the courts.
The issue is critical to Erdogan, who has marketed himself to his conservative, religious home base as a global defender of Islamic causes.
“When it comes to giving the domestic public the impression that this is a government that is really putting its money where its mouth is, that’s a consistent attitude,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at the University of Beykoz in İstanbul. “It fits very well with the public image of the president himself.”
Mr Han said there are still potential avenues for a breakthrough. Sweden could do more to meet Turkey’s demands, he said, or the United States and other NATO members could use “sweeteners” such as weapons or economic deals to win over the Turks. A thaw in the chilly relationship between Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Biden would also help; the US president has not welcomed Mr Erdogan to the White House, unlike his three predecessors.
“Turkey either wants strong sympathies and actions for its own security concerns or wants to reach a major deal with Berlin, Brussels and Washington on issues pertaining to larger foreign and security policy agendas,” Mr Han said.
The Biden administration has pushed hard for NATO expansion. Turkey wants to buy $20 billion worth of F-16 fighter jets and other equipment from the United States, but government officials have dismissed the idea that Biden would use this to pressure Erdogan to expand NATO.
Still, a breakthrough in Sweden could lessen resistance to the deal in Congress.
Mr Biden mentioned Sweden and the arms deal together when he told reporters last month about his phone call with Mr Erdogan to congratulate him on his re-election.
“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Mr Biden said of Mr Erdogan. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”