5 takeaways from the New Hampshire primary
The vaunted power of New Hampshire's fiercely independent voters was not enough to break the spell Donald J. Trump has cast over the Republican Party.
Pushing aside Nikki Haley just over a week after steamrolling her and Ron DeSantis in Iowa, Mr. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate not in the White House to win the nation's first two contests. His 11 percentage point victory margin in moderate New Hampshire demonstrated his ironclad control over the party's far-right base and set him on what could well be a short march to the nomination.
For Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, it was a disappointing outcome in a state into which she had invested significant resources. Her efforts to bring together a coalition of independents and anti-Trump Republicans, with support from the state's popular governor, were no match for Trump's legions of loyalists.
While Ms. Haley vows to fight on, the difficult terrain ahead in South Carolina means this first primary in the nation could be the last.
Trump demonstrated his command of the Republican Party in a purple state.
In 2016, Trump's victory in New Hampshire put him on the path to the nomination and ultimately the presidency.
Eight years later the state delivered for him again.
According to exit polls, he performed well in almost every demographic group. He won every age group, both men and women.
In his final days, Trump has sought to project an air of inevitability, hoping to avoid a lengthy and costly fight as he resists efforts to convict him in a criminal trial before Election Day in November.
His success in New Hampshire would likely lead to more pressure on Ms. Haley to withdraw from his Republican allies, including senators, House members and governors.
He won more than 50 percent of the vote, although his margin of victory fell significantly from the 2016 primary, when he won New Hampshire by about 20 points over a crowded field. And he fell far short of his 30-point victory in this month's Iowa caucuses.
He seemed visibly aware of this when he took the stage on Tuesday evening and announced an uglier next phase.
Using an expletive as he repeatedly attacked Ms Haley, he said: “I don't get too angry – I get revenge.”
Haley has an incredibly difficult road ahead.
The contest now moves to South Carolina, the next competitive primary and one in which Ms. Haley faces a steep battle. Trump has been leading the polls in her conservative home state by more than 30 points for months.
There is little doubt that a defeat for Ms. Haley would be devastating, making it difficult for her to continue in the race.
For Mr. Trump, ending the contest in South Carolina would allow his campaign to avoid the costly costs of Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states will hold primaries. He is expected to unleash a barrage of hard attacks, a tactic similar to the brutal campaign of humiliation he waged against Mr. DeSantis, who left the game on Sunday.
Trump has already argued that Ms. Haley is hurting the party's chances in the fall by forcing him into an extended nominating contest.
“If she doesn't drop out, we're going to have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus,” he told Fox News shortly after the race was called.
The old guard of the Republican Party is a dwindling faction.
Tuesday night's results showed that it's shiva time for the Republican Party of the Bushes, Cheneys and Romneys. And the donor class that once played a major role in shaping the party is now a desperate group of bystanders.
Ms. Haley ran on a traditional Republican platform, one that faded during the Trump years. She campaigned on issues such as cutting federal spending, pursuing a resolutely interventionist foreign policy, and overhauling programs like Social Security and Medicare.
Her candidacy was embraced by the pre-Trump Republican party, as the mob reunited for one final shot at the invader.
Traditional party donors from Wall Street, who hate Trump, poured money into Ms. Haley's super PAC. And in New Hampshire, she seemed to have a political climate that was more hospitable than in Iowa, with a voting base that was less religious and better educated.
But on Tuesday, New Hampshire Republicans rejected Ms. Haley and her attempt to revive the old guard.
She insists her campaign is alive and well and marching on South Carolina, but the wing of the party she represents will be coming out of New Hampshire on life support.
Democratic grumbling aside, Biden is on his way to renomination.
President Biden has not submitted his name for the New Hampshire ballot after the state refused to comply with a new Democratic nominating calendar that made South Carolina the first primary. Yet a sloppy letter-writing campaign by the president's allies still gave him a victory.
His main challenger — Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota — was on pace to win just over 20 percent of the vote. Self-help author Marianne Williamson, who made a second bid for the Democratic nomination, lagged far behind with just 5 percent.
Democrats have pined for another option for months, raising concerns about Biden's age in polls, focus groups and even Sketches from Saturday Night Live. But these results underscore the reality of the Democratic nominating process: Mr. Biden faces no real opposition.
For years, many Democrats wondered whether Trump would complete his comeback and become the 2024 nominee. Now on the rise, Mr. Biden and his party are turning their attention to the general election and preparing to turn the race into a debate over whether a polarizing and criminally indicted former president is fit to return to his office.
Trump's strength may not translate into the general election.
Despite his robust results, the results provided warning signs for Trump heading into November.
A significant portion of Ms. Haley's support came from unaffiliated voters who wanted to send a message about stopping Mr. Trump — a reminder that he owns Republicans, but not everyone else.
While Mr. Trump won the race, he failed to put up the kind of numbers that would be expected of someone who is effectively serving as a sitting president. He has acted as one as part of his strategy in fighting the 91 criminal charges he faces, both in the courts and in the courts of public opinion.
But only about half of those who voted in the New Hampshire primary said they would consider him fit for president if he were convicted of a crime, according to CNN exit polls. Those who might not vote for him with a criminal conviction, assuming a trial takes place this year, remain a minority. But in a short autumn campaign, such factors can be important.
On the other hand, the issues highlighted by the exit polls are swaying some voters, including immigration, which Trump's team expects will benefit him in a general election. And despite the divisions within the Republican Party, the vast majority of its voters view anyone wearing their partisan jersey as preferable to Mr. Biden.
Ruth Igielnik reporting contributed.