Where Nikki Haley won and what it means

When the first New York Times/Siena College poll on the Republican primaries was released in July, a quarter of Republican voters said they were not open to supporting Donald J. Trump.

These “non-Trump” voters were not like other Republicans. They were relatively prosperous, moderate and highly educated. They supported immigration reform and aid to Ukraine. Above all, they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump. A majority of these primary voters wouldn’t even support him in a general election against President Biden.

Ultimately, non-Trump voters found a candidate in Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign on Wednesday. On Super Tuesday, she won 22 percent of the vote — just below the 25 percent who said in July they were not open to Trump.

The opening for Ms. Haley emerged long before she won at the polls. When Ron DeSantis ran to the right, he became unpalatable to the relatively moderate voters who represented the core of any anti-Trump coalition. Ms. Haley’s fervent defense of America’s role in the world and her relatively moderate stance on abortion was a breath of fresh air to these voters, and she quickly became the choice of the party’s old neoconservative, establishment wing.

This made her Trump’s only strong opponent. At the same time, she made sure she would be nothing more than a factional candidate — someone who appealed only to Trump’s opposition, just a quarter of the Republican electorate.

Ms. Haley’s limited appeal was on display in every primary. The exit polls showed her losing badly among self-identified Republican voters, a group that is quite important for a Republican primary.

Ultimately, she won just over thirty counties and DC, many of which fit a caricature of the anti-Trump elite. Most of Haley’s counties were ski and beach resorts, college towns or inside the Beltway — places that bear little resemblance to the rest of the country, let alone the Republican Party. She also excelled in Vermont – the most Democratic state in the country and a state where rules allowed Democrats to vote in the Republican primaries.

When only Republicans could vote, Ms. Haley was crushed. Even Humboldt County, California — akin to a pot-growing strip of Vermont on the West Coast — gave Trump a 79-17 victory without the registered Democrats and independents bolstering her strength elsewhere. The only exception was in and around Salt Lake City, where Trump continues to face significant opposition from Mormons in his own party.

What will Haley’s supporters do in November?

Now that Ms. Haley is out of the race, these non-Trump Republicans may be wondering who to support in the general election. This is not a new problem for Mr. Trump, as these moderate, affluent voters have been skeptical of him all along. He lost many years ago, if he ever won them at all.

In the latest Times/Siena poll, Ms. Haley’s supporters reported supporting Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the 2020 election, 48 percent to 32 percent. Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. Trump did slightly better when the question turned to a 2024 rematch, with the former president winning 44 percent of these voters, compared to 40 percent for Mr. Biden, who tried to appeal to Ms. Haley’s constituents after her withdrawal Wednesday.

At 3 percent of registered voters, Haley voters supporting Trump in the general election represent only a small portion of the electorate. Many may be party-line Republicans who never liked Trump but voted for him last time and will likely do so again. Those who can be persuaded to turn their backs on him could be a crucial part of a successful Biden re-election campaign.

After all, they likely contributed to his narrow victory in 2020.