Six key questions ahead of Biden’s State of the Union

Thursday’s State of the Union address will likely be President Biden’s best opportunity before November to tell Americans in detail about his record and what he would do in a second term.

It’s not technically a campaign speech, as he will deliver it in his official capacity from the floor of the House of Representatives, but for U.S. presidents in the final year of their first terms, the annual speech represents the kickoff for their re-election efforts. .

Mr. Biden will deliver the speech, which typically lasts an hour or more, from a position of political vulnerability but with a host of policy achievements to play up. And it comes just as the long-awaited meeting between him and his predecessor, former President Donald J. Trump, is starting to come into place.

The speech will tackle big themes, such as Mr. Biden’s efforts to restore democracy, and highlight smaller, more personal policy changes his administration has made, such as fighting credit card fees and lowering prescription drug costs, he said. the White House to allies in a briefing on the speech Wednesday, according to a person who attended the session.

Here are six questions Mr. Biden will face before he takes the stage Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern.

What will be his overarching message for 2024?

This one is pretty simple: Donald Trump is a serious threat to democracy and American freedoms.

How well Mr. Biden delivers this message in the State of the Union is another question. It would break with decades of political tradition to attack a campaign rival by name during the speech, but Mr. Biden and allied Democrats have argued during his campaign that 2024 could be a turning point that calls for unusual measures.

“He needs to point out the real danger that Trump poses,” said Pat Cunnane, a White House speechwriter during President Barack Obama’s second term. “People kind of drown that out, they’ve heard it so many times. So I would also like him to use a little humor and remind everyone how weird Donald Trump is.”

How does he try to address concerns about age?

The bar for the age question is quite low for Mr. Biden. All he has to do is forcefully deliver a standard State of the Union speech and parry any interruptions that come his way. He took great pride last year in successfully clapping back at Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia when she called him a “liar.”

But not meeting the moment can be treacherous.

A serious verbal stumble, or even a physical stumble on the way to or from the chamber, would be replayed non-stop on cable news and social media, and could have the potential to exacerbate many of the private concerns that Democrats have long raised, to bring to the boil. about the president’s ability to effectively campaign for re-election.

Can he convince more Americans that the economy isn’t that bad?

Data on the US economy says one thing. But most Americans say otherwise.

So far, Biden has failed to convince voters that the economy is doing well, despite falling inflation, low unemployment and a record stock market. About half of registered voters believe the economy is in “bad” shape, according to a poll conducted late last month by The New York Times and Siena College.

Democratic presidents are typically told not to brag too much about the economy to avoid alienating struggling voters. That’s a bad choice, said Michael Waldman, chief speechwriter for President Bill Clinton’s White House.

“In 1984, people were still hurting and didn’t realize the economy was booming until Reagan said, ‘America stands tall again,’” Mr. Waldman said. “In 1996, Clinton was advised, ‘Don’t talk about economic success.’ He had a surprisingly positive tone in his State of the Union address.”

In his stump speeches, Mr. Biden cites a litany of encouraging statistics and emphasizes expanding the economy “from the center outward and from the bottom up.”

However, vibes are hard to change, and the president may need to show that he empathizes with Americans who say they are struggling financially. Otherwise, his approach could boil down to some version of, “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”

Does he say the word abortion?

Mr. Biden, a practicing Catholic, is known to be uncomfortable using the word “abortion” too often, choosing instead phrases like “reproductive health” and “the right to choose.” But abortion rights have become his party’s biggest electoral weapon since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, leading to unexpected victories.

Abortion advocates will be closely watching Thursday evening how Mr. Biden talks about the subject, as well as the language he uses. It’s likely he will draw attention to an Alabama court ruling that found frozen embryos have the legal status of human beings, prompting fertility clinics in the state to temporarily stop operating. IVF is widely popular among Americans, and the ruling put Republicans on the defensive as Mr. Biden and Democrats tried to exploit it.

Almost everywhere Biden goes, protesters angry about Israel’s war in Gaza follow.

The protesters have and have interrupted several of his speeches — sometimes repeatedly stretched deadlocks with the police outside his events. Even her gained access to a hotel he was staying at during a trip to San Francisco.

Security is extremely tight at State of the Union addresses, and decorum (usual) prevails. But nothing could better illustrate the anger many progressives feel about Mr. Biden’s support for Israel than a protest during his most visible speech of the year.

House Democrats, who have demanded an unconditional ceasefire, are unlikely to shout at Biden about it. They have largely focused on Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, the only Palestinian American in Congress, who has had relatively cordial meetings with the Biden campaign and has been in contact with the White House about her concerns.

But several members of the House of Representatives are bringing Palestinian Americans who have lost family members in Gaza as guests at the event. Emotions can be raw.

Who’s going to watch?

During last month’s Super Bowl, Biden declined a television interview for the second year in a row. His aides said they did not want to distract from the spectacle on the field. But Mr. Biden’s refusal cost him the chance to sell his message in a contest watched by 123.4 million people, a record audience.

State of the Union addresses typically generate much less interest. Last year, about 27.3 million people watched Biden’s speech live on television, a decline of 29 percent from the year before.

Most of the voters Biden needs to get re-elected probably won’t watch the speech live anyway. Eight months before the election, they generally don’t pay attention to politics, and are more likely to see snippets of the speech on TikTok than to sit on the couch with CNN on the television.

But a State of the Union address in an election year could draw more viewers. And although Mr. Trump has said he will to post on social media during the speech, he does not intend to engage in any form of televised counter-programming that could distract from Mr. Biden.

Jonathan Weisman, Michael M. Grynbaum, Lisa Lerer And Michael Gold reporting contributed.