North Carolina’s race for governor: expensive, closely watched and likely tight

One of the nation’s most closely watched elections this year will take place in North Carolina, where the race for governor will be a test of Democratic strength in a state whose closely divided electorate includes a large group of newcomers.

After Tuesday’s primaries, North Carolinians will likely have two starkly contrasting candidates to choose from: mild-mannered Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat whose political rise has followed a traditional path, and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a firebrand Republican who then catapulted into politics comments he made defending gun rights in 2018 went viral.

“If you went to a candidate factory and said, ‘Create me the two most different candidates possible,’ I don’t think you could do any better,” said Christopher A. Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University. “They are just radically different in behavior and ideology.”

Both men would be groundbreaking if elected: Mr. Robinson, 55, would be North Carolina’s first black governor if elected, while Mr. Stein, 57, would be the state’s first Jewish governor.

The race will be closely watched in part because of its potential national implications: Both candidates plan to portray each other in politically extreme terms, which could increase turnout not only for their elections but also for the presidential race in the hotly contested state.

Mr. Stein, like current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, has tried to avoid culture war issues. Mr. Robinson seems eager to dive into a lot of it, disparaging LGBTQ people, posting comments which were widely regarded as anti-Semitic calling Michelle Obama a man. He also has quoted Adolf Hitler on Facebook and embraced former President Donald J. Trump’s false claims about 2020 election fraud.

Mr. Stein supports access to abortion and is endorsed by abortion rights groups, which are mobilized after Republicans used their new supermajority in the Legislature last year to ban most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Mr Robinson supports a so-called heartbeat law, which would ban the procedure after about six weeks of pregnancy, when many women are not yet aware they are pregnant.

His campaign spokesman said Mr. Robinson supports exceptions for rape, incest or when the mother’s life is in danger, but he did not specify after how many weeks these protections would apply.

Mr. Robinson has dismissed the criticism, portraying it as smears orchestrated by liberals and the news media. He has also insisted to reporters that he has never been anti-Semitic, citing as evidence a trip he took to Israel last fall and outreach to Jewish organizations.

Even as Democrats have won seven of the last eight elections for governor in North Carolina, they have consistently lost federal races: The only Democrat to pick the state for president in nearly fifty years was Barack Obama in 2008.

At a rally in Greensboro on Saturday, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Robinson — who worked in furniture manufacturing before turning to politics — had his “full and total support.” Polls show Robinson far ahead of his Republican primary rivals, Dale Folwell, the state treasurer, and Bill Graham, a personal injury and wrongful death attorney.

Mr. Stein leads four other Democratic primary candidates in the polls, including Michael Morgan, a former North Carolina Supreme Court justice.

Mr. Robinson has portrayed Mr. Stein as a dull, Biden-centric political insider who is out of touch with the general public.

Mr. Stein has pointed to Mr. Robinson’s numerous statements on culture war topics as evidence that the lieutenant governor is focused on polarizing social issues rather than challenges most voters care about, such as improving education.

Because north carolina is a key swing state this year, the race is likely to generate millions of dollars in fundraising, especially if polls the candidates continue to show neck and neck.

Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College in Salisbury, N.C., said the race for North Carolina governor will likely be the most expensive and divisive in the country outside of the presidential election. And Mr. Robinson, he added, could capture much of that attention.

“Robinson is very willing to say what he thinks, and sometimes he tries to tiptoe around his past comments,” Mr. Bitzer said. “But he is very much in line with Trump-style politics and the fact of resentment – ​​an ‘us versus them’ mentality.”

Mr. Trump won the state by 1.3 percentage points in 2020, while Mr. Cooper defeated his Republican opponent by more than 4 percentage points that year. Mr. Stein’s victory as attorney general in 2020 was weaker, with 50.1 percent of the vote, a margin of 13,000 votes.

Still, Democrats are counting on Mr. Robinson’s past comments and polarizing approach to motivate voters who want to defeat him.

The question some Republicans have is whether Robinson’s style will be too extreme for swing voters, who make up between 3 and 5 percent of the electorate. They could include many of the hundreds of thousands of people who do moved to North Carolina since 2020, many have settled in the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh, the state’s largest cities. President Biden won the counties that included these cities, but lost many of the surrounding areas.

Jonathan Felts, a Republican strategist who runs a super PAC backing Mr. Robinson’s campaign, said the candidate’s image as a “conservative warrior” and political outsider would appeal to Trump’s working-class base who support the conservative North Carolina dominates, much of which is rural. .

Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist who is advising both Mr. Stein and Mr. Cooper, said residents have historically shown they like balance in their government, with a Democratic governor who will keep the Republican Legislature in check.

Mr. Jackson said Mr. Stein will let his experience speak for itself and will speak during the campaign about his work fighting the fentanyl crisis, putting child predators in jail and keeping communities safer.

Both Mr. Stein and Mr. Robinson have prioritized education issues in their campaigns.

Some Republicans, like Mr. Robinson’s rivals in the party’s primary, are concerned that Mr. Robinson’s rhetoric could cost conservatives the House.

Paul Shumaker, a Republican consultant in the state and chief strategist for Mr. Graham, said he believes Mr. Robinson “will become a burden” on Mr. Trump. In a memo that Mr. Shumaker sent to other advisers this year, he wrote that Mr. Robinson would “create a toxic red tide for Republicans” that could impact the vote.

At the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference, Mr Robinson said spoke about how his name was always mentioned ‘in connection with social issues’.

“According to them, I hate everyone,” he said, before adding that what he did was not about hate. “We should operate because of what we love.”

Mr. Stein said this recently The news and the observer that Mr. Robinson’s beliefs were not the beliefs that “a leader of a thriving, growing, diverse state could have.”