New York City’s population shrinks by 78,000
The background: City planners disagree.
City officials said they would likely challenge 2023 census estimates, which they said significantly underestimated the number of migrants and other people living in group settings such as shelters and dormitories.
A spokesperson for the Department of City Planning, Casey Berkovitz, said 180,000 migrants had come to the city since spring 2022 and 64,600 were still in the city’s care. He added that the planning department would “work with the Census Bureau to adjust the estimate.”
The city’s demographic experts believe that the population has stabilized after the early pandemic decline, and there are signs that the city’s long-term growth will resume in the coming years.
The city had reached a record 8.8 million inhabitants at the beginning of 2020. City officials had previously predicted that New York City would reach the record. 9 million within two decades.
The Numbers: Only Manhattan came around the corner.
While the latest census figures are a marked improvement over recent years, the turnaround has mainly benefited New York City’s more affluent areas, said Andrew Beveridge, New York’s president. Social explorera demographic data company that analyzed the numbers.
“It is very true that many wealthy people have temporarily left high-income areas, and many of them have returned,” Mr Beveridge said. “But it’s the struggling people who are leaving for good.”
Four of the five boroughs continued to see population declines in 2023, according to the latest census estimates.
The Bronx, the city’s poorest borough, shrank the most, by nearly 1.9 percent, losing more than 25,000 residents, according to Social Explorer’s analysis. Brooklyn lost more than 28,000 residents and Queens lost more than 26,000, or just over 1 percent of their population.
For the second year in a row, Manhattan, the wealthiest borough, was the only one to grow, however slightly. It gained almost 3,000 inhabitants in 2023, after more than 16,000 residents were added the year before. Still, Manhattan’s population of just under 1.6 million was down nearly 97,000 from 2020.
The city’s decline represented about three-quarters of New York State’s total population decline of nearly 102,000 by 2023. Upstate New York lost more than 15,000 residents. According to Social Explorer, the state led the nation in population loss from 2021 to 2023.
Some commuter areas around New York City also lost residents. On Long Island, Nassau and Suffolk counties collectively shrank by more than 8,000 people, although other areas, including the suburbs of Connecticut and New Jersey, gained population.
Why it matters: It’s a lopsided recovery.
Many questions remain about the city’s long-term growth, including concerns about a widening income gap and fears of declining revenues.
“We are still in a decline phase, even if things are better than before,” said Andrew Rein, chairman of the Citizens Budget Commission, a policy think tank concerned about the effect of a shrinking population on city taxes. base.
Although the latest census estimates do not provide demographic details on the people who are leaving, research suggests that it is lower- and middle-income earners, not millionaires, who are more likely to leave, largely due to affordability and housing issues.
The Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonprofit policy group, found that the people leaving the city fastest in 2022 were families making between $32,000 and $65,000, and that a disproportionate share of those moving were Black or Hispanic.
Policymakers are closely watching population trends to determine where to allocate funding, and whether higher income taxes on the wealthy should pay for it. Gov. Kathy Hochul has said she opposes such an increase.