Standing up to China, Philippine leader advocates new network of partners
As China aggressively asserted its claims to the South China Sea, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines spent his first year on the job strengthening Manila’s alliance with its oldest ally, the United States. Now he is strengthening the support of a broader and new network of partners.
Mr. Marcos adds a new intensity to his muscular foreign policy at a crucial moment in his country’s territorial dispute with Beijing. Maritime clashes between Chinese and Philippine ships have become more common in recent months.
In January, Mr. Marcos and the leaders of Vietnam, another country fending off Chinese claims to the crucial waterway, pledged closer cooperation between their coastguards. This month, Mr Marcos signed a maritime cooperation agreement with Australia. And this past week he took his pitch to Europe.
“It must be recognized that the South China Sea handles 60 percent of the entire world’s trade. So it is not only in the interest of the Philippines, or of ASEAN, or of the Indo-Pacific region, but of the whole world,” Marcos said in Berlin on Tuesday, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Standing alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Mr. Marcos, the first Philippine President to visit Germany in a decade, added: “Therefore, it is in all our interests to maintain the country as a safe passage for all international trade taking place in the world . South Chinese Ocean.”
This wave of diplomacy could ultimately help deter China, analysts say. But they also acknowledged that Beijing would continue to double down on its territorial claims, raising the risks of a conflict that could ultimately attract the United States, the Philippines’ oldest treaty ally. Washington has repeatedly condemned Beijing’s actions and vowed to come to Manila’s aid in the event of an armed conflict.
The foreign policy strategy of Mr Marcos, who took office in June 2022, is almost the opposite of the approach of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While Mr. Duterte rejected the West and courted China, Mr. Marcos has revived and strengthened ties with traditional security partners such as the United States and Japan. He has also built new relationships with countries such as Sweden and France, and his government has pushed for arms deals and military exercises.
Tensions flared again this month when Chinese boats blocked Philippine ships off the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef 190 kilometers off the coast of western Palawan province. The confrontation culminated in the clash between Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships.
Mr. Marcos then told reporters that there was no reason yet to invoke the mutual defense treaty with the United States.
China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, part of which is hundreds of kilometers away from the mainland and in the waters around Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines. Over the past decade, China has exerted increasing control over these waters, using two island chains, the Paracels and the Spratlys, to expand its military footprint by building and fortifying outposts and airstrips.
The militarization of the Spratly Islands allowed China to maintain a 24-hour presence in waters approximately 500 miles from China’s coast. Chinese boats stationed there then repeatedly harassed Filipino fishing boats in an area that an international tribunal in The Hague ruled was a traditional fishing ground of the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries. The Chinese presence also prevented Manila from fully exploring the oil and gas deposits in the surrounding waters.
China has blamed the Philippines for frequent clashes in the South China Sea.
Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, warned the Philippines in December against “changing its policy position, reneging on its obligations and continuing to provoke and cause trouble at sea.”
Mr. Wang also issued a warning: “If the Philippines misjudges the situation, insists on going its own way, or even colludes with evil external forces to continue causing trouble and chaos, China will definitely safeguard its rights in accordance with the law and respond. resolutely.”
Two weeks later, the Philippines announced that it had signed agreements with Britain and Canada to strengthen defense cooperation. They were part of 10 security agreements that Mr. Marcos has signed with seven countries since last year, according to a series of public statements.
“China is actually pushing us closer to the United States and to the other countries that have already expressed their support, as far as Germany and as far as the Czech Republic,” said Renato Cruz De Castro, professor of international studies at De La Salle University in Manila.
On Thursday, Czech Republic President Petr Pavel said he was ready to cooperate with the Philippines on defense and cybersecurity, adding that his country “fully” supports Manila in the South China Sea.
“To us, the South China Sea may seem very far away, but if you take into account the percentage of global or global trade that passes through this area, any disruption to these routes would have a negative impact on Europe. not only in the form of a shortage of goods, but also in rising prices,” Mr Pavel told reporters at a joint news conference with Mr Marcos. “That’s why we need to pay attention to this issue.”
New allies, Mr. De Castro said, are welcome because the Philippines cannot rely solely on the United States, especially if former President Donald J. Trump returns to power next year.
“The US right now is just – even Americans would say – so unstable, the political system is so unstable, look what’s happening with US military aid to Ukraine,” he said. “And I’m not saying Trump would win, but there is always uncertainty because of the volatile US domestic politics.”
Another important factor for Mr. Marcos, analysts say, is securing investment for the Philippines.
“That means that we can be really assertive, that we can really protect the interests of the South China Sea without thinking about the economic setback that China could impose on us,” said Aries A. Arugay, chairman of the political department sciences from the University of China. the Philippines Diliman.
Even India, which has been silent on the South China Sea dispute for years, announced last June that it would provide loans at preferential rates to the Philippines for its military modernization. In August, both countries signed agreements to cooperate in the field of coast guard.
Last week, while in Australia, Mr Marcos warned that ongoing clashes between Philippine and Chinese ships had increased the risk of miscalculations.
“The likelihood of outright conflict is now much greater than before,” he said. “We are concerned in the Philippines because it cannot be the result of a strategic decision by someone who says, ‘Okay, we’re going to go to war,’ but of a few soldiers making a mistake, or of an action that becomes wrong understood.”