Why Democrats can kill a bipartisan House ticket in New York
Democrats have spent millions of dollars and more than a year in court to successfully fight for a chance to redraw New York’s congressional map to potentially give their candidates a boost in key races.
Now they have to decide whether to take that photo.
The Democratic-dominated state Legislature is expected to vote Monday on whether to accept or reject a modest set of changes to a congressional map that the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission recommended this month and revise the powers to create takes over cards for himself.
The choice could have major consequences for the national battle for the House of Representatives. Even with just a handful of adjustments, Democratic state lawmakers could effectively compete with Republicans in up to six swing seats, from Long Island to Syracuse.
Party leaders in New York and Washington appeared to have laid the groundwork to do just that last week. But by late Sunday, on the eve of the expected vote, they had not even committed to voting down the bipartisan proposal.
“It’s a big fork in the road,” said Dave Wasserman, elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. “The more aggressive their play, the greater the potential reward in seats, but the higher-risk courts could intervene again to block it or maintain the status quo.”
Spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl E. Heastie both declined to comment.
So did nearly a dozen other party lawmakers, including Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the House of Representatives’ top Democrat who is widely seen as the most influential voice in the process.
Their reluctance reflected a complex set of political and legal concerns that plagued the mapmaking process. While the New York Constitution gives the legislature ultimate authority to draw the maps, it also expressly prohibits partisan gerrymandering.
Democrats insist that any changes they might consider to district lines are motivated by reuniting so-called communities of interest divided across districts.
But they made the same argument in 2022, when lawmakers last drew the line, and saw how it backfired in serious ways. Republicans have filed a lawsuit. The state’s highest court ruled that the map was a Democratic gerrymander. And a court-appointed mapmaker drew lines that helped Republicans flip four seats.
Ronald S. Lauder, who helped finance the latest successful legal challenge, accused Democrats on Sunday of once again plotting “the worst kind of hacking.” He said he was prepared to return to court if necessary.
“I will fight to stop them, both in court and in the court of public opinion,” Mr. Lauder said. “And I will win.”
The groundwork for the current battle was laid when a separate lawsuit filed by national Democrats prompted a reconfigured state Court of Appeals to reopen the map-making process in December. With a new, more liberal majority in place, it tasked the 10-member commission, created by a constitutional amendment, with overseeing the process of drafting a new plan.
As the outlines of the commission’s proposal began to leak earlier this month, influential Democrats in Albany and Washington signaled they might be willing to accept the newly proposed district lines as an imperfect but acceptable compromise.
The commission’s map would make minor changes to the Syracuse area, endangering a Republican incumbent, Rep. Brandon Williams. It would also slightly reshuffle district lines in the Hudson Valley, helping a frontline Democrat, Pat Ryan, and a Republican, Marc Molinaro.
The proposal made no changes in battleground states on Long Island or in Westchester, where Democrats covet three swing seats represented by first-term Republicans.
Although the precise reasons remain unclear, by the time the panel voted 9-1 to adopt its plan on February 15, sentiment was beginning to swing sharply the other way among prominent Democrats who wanted to overturn the bipartisan commission’s map .
When Mr. Jeffries issued a statement through a spokesman the next day criticizing the commission’s plan, many in Albany read it as an ominous statement of intent.
The spokesman, Andy Eichar, said the commission map “ignores or exacerbates” concerns from watchdog groups about how the current lines divide so-called communities of interest. He also cited changes in the 19th District in the Hudson Valley that were “needlessly designed to impermissibly benefit an incumbent,” in that case Mr. Molinaro.
“That would be a clear violation of the New York State Constitution,” he wrote.
Surprisingly, however, Mr. Jeffries’ statement made no mention of the neighboring 18th District. There, changes similar to those he denounced had the effect of protecting Mr Ryan.
Mr. Jeffries has relied on two Democratic congressmen with deep ties to state politics, Joseph Morelle of Rochester and Gregory W. Meeks of Queens, to serve as intermediaries with state leaders in crafting a possible alternative.
Whether they can find a replacement capable of winning the votes needed to satisfy both legislative chambers in Albany and Mr. Jeffries should become clear by the end of Monday.