Where does Navalny's reported death leave Russia and Putin?
The death of Aleksei A. Navalny, reported Friday by authorities in Moscow, marks a new turning point for President Vladimir V. Putin's Russia, underscoring both the Kremlin's power and the potential for instability that continues to threaten it.
The announcement came just a month before Russia's presidential election, when the Kremlin will try to portray Russians as united behind Putin and his bid for a fifth term. Analysts expect the Kremlin will try to link its confident election victory to new gains on the front in Ukraine, where Russian troops have taken the initiative against a Ukrainian army struggling to retain Western support.
As the third year of the war approaches, Putin's control over domestic politics appears to be almost complete, with his most prominent remaining opponents in prison or in exile. Street protests are immediately suppressed and thousands of Russians have been prosecuted for criticizing the war.
By offering high salaries to military recruits, the Kremlin has managed to carry out its invasion without resorting to a second military draft, meaning most Russians have been able to continue with their daily lives. The West's far-reaching sanctions have not paralyzed the Russian economy.
But for some analysts, the reports of Navalny's death – which his aides said they feared were most likely true – are a reminder that Putin's power may be weaker than it first appears.
“Navalny tended to sense the vulnerabilities, rather than create them,” a Moscow political analyst, Mikhail Vinogradov, said in a telephone interview on Friday, suggesting that Putin had liabilities, such as corruption, that provided an opening for an opportunistic opponent. Mr Vinogradov described the day's news as the most shocking death of a Russian politician in the country's post-Soviet history.
The circumstances remain murky. But citing the widely held view that the Kremlin was essentially responsible for Mr Navalny's death – what President Biden has also claimed that in comments Friday afternoon, Mr. Vinogradov added that the news could further unsettle Russia's governing class. It could remind them, he said, of the extraordinary lengths the government will go to to silence dissent. Such repression, he said, “is always a bit of an experiment.”
Simmering unease over Putin's war and his crackdown on the opposition has been on display repeatedly in recent months, even as polls continue to show broad support for — or at least acceptance of — the invasion of Ukraine. There was the popularity surprise of a little-known anti-war candidate for the upcoming presidential election, and the movement of the wives of mobilized soldiers demand the return of their husbands.
Before that, there was last summer's stunning 24-hour uprising led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, a threat that Mr. Putin appears to have addressed. US intelligence agencies assess, by shooting down the mercenary chief's plane last August. That episode highlighted the potential for the bubbling opposition to Putin to spiral out of control in an instant, and the pent-up demand from part of the Russian public for a charismatic leader who could represent an alternative.
A key question now is whether the Kremlin will pursue a new round of repression and censorship following Mr. Navalny's death. Even if she is dead, political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said on Friday, Mr Navalny poses a problem for the Kremlin.
“Much will depend on whether the regime overreacts, which could become a problem in itself,” Ms. Stanovaya wrote. “They will have to deal with Navalny's legacy.”
The power of that legacy was on display just hours after Mr. Navalny's reported death, as Russians gathered for impromptu vigils in cities around the world and social media was filled with posts from people in Russia laying flowers in his memory laid.
Outside the Russian embassy in Berlin, former Kremlin adviser turned opposition figure Marat Guelman said he believed Navalny's death had the potential to revive Russia's beleaguered and disparate opposition groups.
“I hope,” he said, “that in Russia one hero will be replaced by a hundred heroes.”
Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting.