After an armed uprising, Putin tries to strengthen his defenses

Mr. Putin also apparently promised more weapons to one of his most loyal security chiefs. The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, a former bodyguard of Putin, boasted last week that the president had promised to arm his troops with tanks and artillery.

And the Russian leader has telegraphed confidence in Defense Secretary Sergei K. Shoiguwhose ouster Mr. Prigozhin has long demanded for battlefield trouble, but who has worked for Mr. Putin since the president first took office in 1999. Mr Shoigu spoke publicly about the uprising for the first time on Monday in remarks by Russian state media, declare: “These plans failed because especially the personnel of the armed forces remained faithful to their covenant and military duty.”

But rewarding the military and security services with more money and power comes with its own risks. Mr. Golosov, the St. Petersburg political scientist, warned that other factions within them might be tempted to start their own uprising after witnessing Mr. Prigozhin’s ability to launch one.

“It is quite possible that, looking at how the Prigozhin mutiny developed, some other players in the security services will see this as, say, a more plausible course of action for themselves than they did before the Prigozhin experience,” he said. Mr Golosov. .

According to analysts, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be a further destabilizing force. It was the battlefield role of Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force that apparently led Putin to overlook the warlord’s criticism of the war effort. Now the Kremlin can rise to the challenge of waging war in Ukraine without parts of Wagner — and keeping balance in an increasingly fragile system.

It’s a system that originated in peacetime, where loyalty is more important than effectiveness, said Nikolay Petrov, a visiting scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. But in a war, the Kremlin needs both – and struggles to find players who are both effective and loyal, as Mr. Prigozhin showed. That raises the possibility that Putin’s renewed emphasis on loyalty in the aftermath of the mutiny could affect Russia’s performance on the battlefield.

“Putin and his whole system are now in a dilemma,” Petrov said. “If you value the principle of loyalty over effectiveness, then there are no risks associated with the mutiny. But there is also no hope of a more effective functioning of the system.”