The Russian advance around Avdiivka is losing momentum after quick gains
When the eastern city of Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold, fell to Russian forces three weeks ago, Kiev and its allies feared that Moscow’s forces could build on their momentum and quickly advance to strategic military nodes and population centers.
But after making rapid gains in the following days, Russian attacks around three disputed nearby villages have stalled. Military experts cite several factors, including terrain that does not favor offensive operations, Russian troops exhausted by months of fighting and a Ukrainian army that has deployed significant forces to defend the area.
Russia appears to be maintaining its initiative on the battlefield, and military analysts say its forces could still break through Ukrainian lines in the near future, especially as Kiev’s defensive efforts are increasingly constrained by the lack of further US military assistance.
But for now, they say the fighting appears to have returned to the kind of inconclusive back-and-forth that has characterized much of the war’s frontline fighting over the past year.
“The capture of Avdiivka did not lead to the collapse of Ukrainian lines, the ability for the Russians to move into open terrain or even make major gains,” said Thibault Fouillet, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies . French research center. “There is no decisive action or breakthrough.”
It contrasts with the situation that arose after the fall of Avdiivka in mid-February. As Ukrainian forces withdrew, Russia advanced rapidly, aided in part by the lack of strong Ukrainian defensive positions. Russian forces captured three settlements and took control of nine square kilometers of land open source maps of the battlefield.
But according to the open source maps, Moscow has only captured just over a square kilometer of land in the past ten days. The soldiers are involved in fighting in and around the villages of Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke.
Russian forces “appear to be trying to advance using small infantry strike groups, but are being decimated in the relatively open terrain west of Avdiivka,” said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Black Bird Groupa Finland-based open source community that assesses satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield.
The recent fighting has also come at the expense of the Ukrainian army, which now appears to have committed some of its best troops and weapons to the battle in the area west of Avdiivka.
The 47th Brigade, which the United States trained and equipped last year, is defending Berdychi. a video released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed to show the brigade using an American-made Abrams tank, one of the most advanced in the United States.
The Ukrainian army is “deploying all possible weapons” in the battle outside Avdiivka, said Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a nongovernmental research group.
But according to Oryx, three Abrams tanks from Ukraine have been destroyed or damaged and abandoned there in the past two weeks. military analysis website that losses count based on visual evidence.
Ukrainian forces also suffered heavy losses as they fended off Russian attacks on Avdiivka for months.
Military experts say Ukraine’s continued defense of the area is likely intended to give its units time to prepare and strengthen new defense lines further west. The Ukrainian army recently published photographs of fortifications that it said it was building near the Avdiivka combat zone, including 2.5-meter-deep trenches and anti-tank ditches.
“You have a stronghold that has fallen,” Mr. Fouillet said, referring to Avdiivka, “so you need time to put a line of defense back in place.”
The Russian attack on Avdiivka resulted in heavy human and material losses for its forces. British military intelligence said this that the average daily number of Russian troops killed and wounded had reached 983 by February, when Moscow deployed a large number of troops to the battle for Avdiivka, “the highest number since the start of the war.”
Mr Paroinen and Mr Kuzan noted that the Ukrainian armed forces have taken advantage of the terrain in the area. As Russian forces attack Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke through open fields with little cover, Ukrainian units hold the high ground in the villages, making it easier to target approaching Russian soldiers.
Should Russian forces eventually take the three villages, it is unclear what their exact next steps would be as the terrain is hilly and dotted with streams and reservoirs, making further advances difficult.
Mr. Kuzan said the Russian military is currently attacking several sites along its 560-mile (900-kilometer) front line to probe Ukraine’s defenses.
“Which one of them gets priority in two days or next week, for example, will depend on how well they manage to break through our defences,” he said. “Where they manage to persevere, they will deploy additional reserves to build on their success. This is their strategy.”