What the elections in Taiwan could mean for the island and the world
Taiwan will elect a new president on Saturday, bringing new leadership to volatile relations with an increasingly belligerent Beijing. The outcome could increase or decrease the risks of a crisis, giving China a potential transition point to revive engagement or increase military threats that could ultimately draw the United States into war.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made good on Beijing’s claim over the self-ruled island of 23 million by sending warplanes and ships into the air and waters around Taiwan almost daily. While maintaining “strategic ambiguity” over its plans, Washington has helped strengthen the island’s military, and President Biden has indicated the United States would do so. Defending Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
The key election battle, with results expected Saturday evening, pits the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has promoted Taiwan’s distinct identity, against the opposition Nationalist Party, which favors a more conciliatory approach to China . Chinese leaders have branded the DPP as separatists and suggested that voting for another four years under that party would be tantamount to choosing war over peace.
The DPP’s presidential candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, is trying to win a third consecutive term in power for his party, something no party has achieved since Taiwan adopted direct presidential elections in 1996.
Opposition Nationalist Party candidate Hou Yu-ih is seeking to return his party to power for the first time since 2016. An outsider, third party candidate, Ko Wen-je, has focused more on domestic issues and promises to turn the political situation upside down. the political system.
A close fight
The DPP’s Mr Lai has led by only a few points in many recent polls, although victory is not out of reach for Mr Hou, the nationalist candidate. Mr. Ko is gaining momentum, but remains a gamble.
China has, as always, played a prominent role in the race this year, but domestic issues have become more prominent than in recent elections. The cost of living is rising, causing complaints in particular from young voters, whose turnout rate – usually much lower than that of older people – could play a decisive role.
Lai, 64, a former doctor and former politician, has pledged to stick to President Tsai Ing-wen’s strategy to keep Beijing at bay, avoid conflict and strengthen ties with the United States and other democracies. He has also offered a package of policies called National Project of Hope aimed at improving Taiwan’s economy and generating better jobs for youth.
The nationalist candidate, Mr Hou, 66, is a former police chief and currently mayor of New Taipei. He has said he wants to stabilize ties with China while continuing to build up the military and maintain close ties with Washington. He accuses the DPP of endangering Taiwan’s security by failing to create the conditions for talks with Beijing.
Mr. Ko, 64, a surgeon who previously served as mayor of Taipei City, is the new third-party candidate. He has focused on fundamental issues such as housing, while saying he would take practical steps to improve ties with China.
Even if Ko loses, his Taiwan People’s Party could win enough seats to play an influential role in the next term, which will also be elected on Saturday. The DPP is widely expected to lose its majority there, and this time no party is likely to win more than half the seats.
What Taiwan wants and fears
Taiwan is a self-governing democracy, but is not recognized as a country by most governments because of their ties with Beijing. That uncertain status means that Taiwan’s international status and its relationship with China are always on voters’ minds.
Polls show that most Taiwanese favor maintaining the island’s ambiguous status quo and would not risk Beijing’s wrath by seeking outright independence. Yet surveys also indicate that fewer people see prospects for a peaceful agreement with China that they can accept.
That of the Chinese Communist Party tightening authoritarian grip on Hong Kong has deepened skepticism toward Beijing in Taiwan. All three leading presidential candidates reject China’s “one country, two systems” formula used in governing Hong Kong and say they will protect Taiwan’s status quo.
Where they differ is on the issue of diplomacy and trade.
The nationalists argue that holding talks and doing more business with China could keep war risks under control. The DPP says Taiwan should focus on expanding trade and ties with countries other than China so it can avoid dangerous dependence on its powerful neighbor. Mr Lai has said dialogue with Beijing is possible if Taiwan is treated with “equal respect”.
The stakes for the US and China
How both China and the United States respond to the elections and the next four years of Taiwan’s government will shape the question hanging over the island like a dark cloud: Will there be a war?
Since Ms. Tsai became president eight years ago, China has escalated military pressure on Taiwan. Chinese warplanes and warships regularly test Taiwan’s military, eroding the significance of the median line in the strait between the two sides, an informal border that Chinese forces have rarely crossed in the past. Mr Xi has made clear that China reserves the right to use force to take Taiwan if it deems it necessary.
Few observers believe that an invasion by China is imminent.
Regardless of who wins the election, Beijing will likely continue to pressure Taiwan, but the country can expand its mix of tactics. It could raise demands and increase military incursions. It could also open doors for engagement, with economic sweeteners or other tools. Taiwan’s next president will be sworn in on May 20, and China could use the time before that to test the new leader.
Mr Lai is Beijing’s biggest concern. Chinese officials characterize him as an unreliable, unreconstructed supporter of Taiwan’s independence.
Beijing could also use economic punishment, for example by withdrawing tariff concessions on Taiwanese products. Or the country could try to poach more allies from the handful of countries that still maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
The United States could also quietly emphasize its desire for caution to Taiwan’s next president at a time when the country is dealing with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The White House has announced that it will send a high-level delegation of former top officials to Taiwan after the election – a practice that has been in place for decades. China responded by urging the US to “refrain from interfering” in Taiwan’s affairs.
A victory for Mr Hou could trigger a warmer response from Beijing. China would likely view the victory as a rebuke to pro-independence forces. But the Nationalist Party today is not nearly as friendly toward China as it used to be. Mr Hou said he would “not touch the issue of unification” during his term in office.
Any respite in post-election tensions may not last even if Mr Hou wins. Mr Xi called Taiwan’s unification with China “a historical inevitability” in a speech on December 31. Tensions between the US and China, not just over Taiwan but on many other issues, are making peace increasingly difficult to maintain.
The shadow of Beijing
China has been trying to influence elections in Taiwan for decades. In a 1996 vote, Beijing held firm large-scale military exercises and launched missiles into the waters off Taiwan.
This time China did balloons sent to great heights over the island, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, in what some experts saw as a warning.
The Taiwanese government has also repeatedly warned that China is waging “cognitive warfare” aimed at influencing Taiwanese voters through the use of disinformation and media manipulation. The influence efforts included videos spreading rumors about Ms. Tsai’s personal life that her office said were false. Other videos falsely claimed, with what Taiwanese authorities said were “deep fake” footage, that she and Mr. Lai were running a cryptocurrency scam.
Experts in Taiwan have also found online campaigns originating in China that have tried to increase skepticism about the United States, with messages claiming that the country is not really a friend of Taiwan and will leave the island.
China has largely ignored the accusations of interference. It calls the elections ‘purely one internal Chinese Question,” and officially refuses to recognize the vote as legitimate.