What we know about Trump’s inability to arrange a half-billion dollar bond

The calendar is not Donald J. Trump’s friend.

In six days, the former president must secure bail of about half a billion dollars in his civil fraud case in New York, a possibility that was questioned Monday.

In a court filing, Mr. Trump’s lawyers revealed that he had been unable to obtain an appeal bond despite “diligent efforts,” including approaching about 30 bond companies.

While Mr. Trump managed to post a $91.6 million bond this month in his defamation case against the writer E. Jean Carroll, securing the eleventh-hour deal from a major insurance company, he does not have the resources are necessary to provide the much greater guarantee for the fraud case.

If he cannot produce the bond by March 25, Mr. Trump faces the possibility of financial disaster and humiliation. The New York attorney general, which brought the fraud case, would have the right to collect the $454 million and could try to seize Mr. Trump’s New York properties or freeze his bank accounts.

And Trump’s money problems spread far beyond New York. As the presumptive Republican nominee for president, he faces increasing pressure to raise money to finance his campaign, lagging behind his opponent, President Biden, in fundraising.

Here’s what we know about Mr. Trump’s financial troubles:

Why is Mr. Trump so guilty?

Attorney General Letitia James sued Mr. Trump last fall, accusing him of fraudulently inflating the value of his assets to obtain favorable loan terms.

Mr. Trump lost, and Judge Arthur F. Engoron imposed a judgment of $355 million plus interest, which amounts to $454 million. Although Ms. James could have collected immediately, she offered a 30-day grace period ending March 25.

Mr Trump is now on the hook for the entire ruling while he appeals. He can come up with the money himself or, more likely, obtain a bond from a company that would promise to pay if Trump were to lose his appeal and default.

For a bond of this size, Trump would have to pledge a significant amount of collateral — as much as $557 million, his lawyers said — including as much cash as possible, as well as any stocks and bonds he could quickly sell. He would also owe the bond company compensation that could amount to $20 million.

Does he have the money to cover it?

Short answer: no.

Although Trump has long bragged about his wealth, his actual financial position remains a mystery. A recent New York Times analysis found that Trump had more than $350 million in cash, but most of his remaining money was tied up in his real estate holdings.

In other words, it is not liquid enough to provide the collateral needed for a bond of this size.

And he has less cash available today than he did a week ago. Trump had to post $91.6 million bail in the defamation case he lost to E. Jean Carroll. To secure the bond, Trump most likely had to pledge more than $100 million in collateral to Chubb, the giant insurance company that provided the bond.

What comes next?

Mr Trump has appealed the $454 million verdict and asked a higher court in New York to suspend the sentence or accept a lower bail of $100 million. Ms. James could also give Mr. Trump additional time to pay the former president or show mercy by making a counteroffer.

He could appeal to the state’s highest court, quickly sell an asset or seek help from a wealthy supporter.

And if all else fails, as a last resort he could have the corporate entities involved in the fraud case file for bankruptcy, which would automatically halt the judgment against those entities.

But Trump is likely to object to a bankruptcy filing.

If none of these options happen before March 25, and Mr. Trump misses the deadline, Ms. James would be free to collect the money owed to the state.

Could he use campaign money to pay Ms. James?

Probably not.

A super PAC supporting his candidacy can raise unlimited amounts of money, but is legally prohibited from working with him and cannot pay the judgment.

And while the former president has used a political action committee under his control to pay lawyers and witnesses in his lawsuits, that group lacks the kind of money needed to pay the $454 million fine.

He is now trying to raise campaign money as he faces a significant financial gap with his election opponent, Mr. Biden. Mr. Biden’s campaign recently announced that it had entered March with $155 million in cash on hand. Although the Trump operation has not released a more recent total, there was about $40 million between his campaign account and the Republican National Committee at the end of January.

What else happens on March 25?

Mr Trump also has a crucial hearing in his criminal case in Manhattan, which could be the first prosecution of a former US president.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has filed charges against Mr. Trump, accusing him of covering up a sex scandal involving a porn star to boost his 2016 presidential campaign. The case is now being taken to court.

Jury selection was originally scheduled to begin on March 25, but the trial was postponed late last week following the disclosure of more than 100,000 pages of documents in the possession of federal prosecutors.

Although the documents have now been turned over, the trial was postponed until mid-April to give Trump’s lawyers time to review the papers.

Judge Juan M. Merchan has scheduled the hearing for March 25 to determine whether the trial should be further postponed and to rule on Trump’s motion for an outright dismissal.

The Manhattan case is one of four criminal charges Trump faces.