Five takeaways from the Turkish presidential election

The re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives him another five years to deepen his conservative stamp on Turkish society and fulfill his ambition to increase the country’s economic and geopolitical power.

Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council has declared Erdogan the victor after a run-off election on Sunday. He won 52.1 percent of the vote against opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had 47.9 percent with almost all votes counted, the council said.

The election was closely followed by Turkey’s NATO allies, including the United States, who have often viewed Erdogan as a frustrating partner due to his anti-Western rhetoric and close ties to Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin, which have grown since the invasion from Russia. from Ukraine.

Mr Erdogan has given no indication that he intends to change his policies abroad, where he has sought to use Turkey’s place at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East to expand his influence, or in his own country, where power has been consolidated in his country. hands and responded to an inflationary crisis with unconventional measures that economists say exacerbated the problem.

He was challenged by a newly united opposition who heralded the election as a make-it-or-break-it moment for Turkish democracy. The opposition candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, ran as the anti-Erdogan, vowing to restore civil liberties and improve ties with the West. He called himself more in touch with the struggles of ordinary people.

Here are some key takeaways:

Crises have damaged but not broken Erdogan.

This was the most challenging election of Erdogan’s 20 years as Turkey’s most prominent politician, as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014. Before the first ballot, most polls suggested a close race with Mr Kilicdaroglu in the lead.

Analysts cited several reasons why Erdogan would struggle. Anger over a painful cost-of-living crisis turned some voters against him. Powerful earthquakes in February killed more than 50,000 people and damaged hundreds of buildings in southern Turkey. Many earthquake survivors complained about the government’s slow initial response, while the devastation raised questions about whether Erdogan’s rush to develop the country had encouraged unsafe construction.

Turkey’s historically unruly opposition put aside its differences to rally behind Mr Kilicdaroglu, arguing that change was needed to stop the country’s slide into one-man rule.

Mr Erdogan came to power 20 years ago out of anger at the government’s disastrous response to an earthquake near Istanbul in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people. Many expected this year’s earthquake to damage its position as well.

But there is little evidence that this was the case.

Mr Erdogan came out first in eight of the 11 provinces affected by the February earthquake. His ruling Justice and Development Party and its political allies fared even better, winning a majority of the vote in simultaneous parliamentary elections in all but one of the quake-hit provinces.

Participation in the earthquake zone was also high, despite concerns that many voters displaced by the devastation would struggle to return home to cast their ballots as required. While participation in the 11 quake-hit counties was below the 88.9 percent of eligible voters who voted nationally, turnout in none of those counties fell below 80 percent.

Interviews with earthquake survivors revealed many reasons why the disaster had not changed their political outlook. Some described the earthquake as an act of God that any government would have struggled to respond to. Others whose homes were destroyed said they had more confidence in Erdogan to rebuild the affected areas than in his challenger.

Terrorism warnings resonated with voters.

Mr Erdogan undermined the opposition by portraying its leaders as weak and incompetent, but one line of attack proved particularly powerful: allegations that they would be soft on terrorism.

The president repeatedly made this argument to voters, based on the fact that the opposition has gained the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. The government often accuses that party of collaborating with militants from the Turkish Kurdish minority who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades in search of autonomy.

Mr Erdogan even went so far as to broadcast videos at his rallies that had been manipulated to show militant leaders singing along to Mr Kilicdaroglu’s campaign song. Many voters believed him and said in interviews that they did not trust the opposition to keep the country safe.

International observers reported no major problems with the process of collecting and counting votes during the first round, and deemed the process free.

But they noted the huge advantages Mr Erdogan had before the vote began, including his ability to free up billions of dollars in state spending to try to offset the negative effects of inflation and other economic stresses, and the abundant, positive coverage in the media he received from the state. -funded broadcasting.

Mr Kilicdaroglu did not dispute the vote count late on Sunday, but told supporters that the general election was “one of the most unfair electoral processes in recent years”.

Many in the political opposition fear that the closeness of the race will lead Erdogan to take a more aggressive approach to his political opponents to avoid such a tough challenge in the future.

Economists warn that Erdogan resorted to costly short-term tactics to shield voters from inflation and prevent the value of the national currency from falling further. But he can’t keep it up forever.

Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves have plummeted, meaning the country could lose its ability to repay foreign creditors. And because much of that money has been spent to keep the currency stable, its value could fall once that spending stops.

Mr Erdogan gave no indication during his campaign that he intended to change his economic policies, despite stubbornly high, double-digit inflation that economists say has been exacerbated by his insistence on lowering interest rates rather than raising them to boost the economy. fight inflation, as orthodox economics recommends.

So no matter what moves Erdogan might want to prioritize at the start of his new term, the risks of a currency crisis or recession are likely to demand his attention.

Gulsin Harman contributed reporting from Ankara, Turkey.